Just wait till another one of my companies announces they are launching a cryptocurrency.

I dunno man, my SSTI short might blow you away.

March Update


Have added some new tabs/pages to the spreadsheet, so we can go back and see how things have been progressing from month to month - here's what they look like in the bottom left hand corner of the sheet ...

And here's what's on the 'End of Month Summary' page - guess this may not have been the sort of year some of us were hoping for?

Have been seeing stuff posted here and there, about just how hot the market's been since Trump was elected. When buying and holding during a bull market is the easiest way to make gains, downswings sure do suck - but guess they're an inevitable part of the cycle? And the longer it's been since there's been a correction, the larger they'll maybe be when they do happen?

Was rather shocked to see how big the gains still are post-election, even after the big drop from all-time highs. Am not finding it really helping to make downswings feel that much better - but maybe they're a bit more understandable?

So guess many of our portfolios have been moving in the same direction as the market - more down and sideways than up?



Shorts

On the other hand, some portfolios have actually been growing while the market has been declining. jb's has been, and is also once again the top gainer with the shorts of blockchain stocks and companies who are being sued ...

Other portfolios with growing gains from month to month with shorts of blockchain holdings include:

Backstabr - whose hot on jb's heels with a 35% return
DuckU - who also has 7/9 longs in the green
juan valdez - see below
mrbaseball - who also has some nice long (WDAY, NOC)

With the market in the decline, there were some other shorts that had some big moves this past month - some others who also have growing gains from month to month thanks to gains from shorts include:

ASAP17 - who's AMD short has gone from a -33% start to the year to going into the green
BooLoo - has two shorts that have had recent breakouts, TSLA and TTWO
formula72 - is also short TSLA and TTWO
juan valdez - is short TSLA, and HD and YELP shorts are also now in the green
OS9988 - only made one pick, but it looks like it was a good one ... SIAF is doing very well as a short

Longs

Some portfolios have actually been gaining month over month thanks to longs.

A noteworthy long portfolio this month is ASAP17's, who's also had a huge breakout of a long that's now the top gainer of all the holdings, VIRT:

Some other portfolios who have had month over month gains thanks to breakout longs include:

formula72 - had a huge breakout with RUN
jacobite barnes - AVP has been growing month over month
JupiterO - has RUN, and also had a breakout with BGSF

We've all got a couple of bright spots in our portfolios as well

bluefall - BOJA has been growing nicely
BrianTheMick2 - perhaps people have been soothing their stock market sorrows with chalupas from Taco Bell, because YUM has been on the rise
gangip - has BOJA as well, and LE and ALNA are also going in the right direction
JoshSp - has several solid picks, such has TTD and NVDA
Mori****a System - also shorting TSLA which may be poised for a breakout
Pokabandito - shorting TSLA as well
rafiki - is doing well with GBTC
TheMVP - had a big breakout with Z, has 8/10 in the green, with 4 double-digit gainers
theviolator - TSLA's a very popular short!
twelve yr old - PANW is on the rise, 7/10 are in the green, and has 4 double-digit gainers
Wilverine - had a breakout with MU this month
Zeno - also holds a rising YUM ... yum!

Congrats to those who have holdings that are still on the rise To those of us whose stuff is moving in the opposite direction, guess it's never fun to have to look at stuff when that's happening. But guess it's always important to look and make sure stuff is where we want it to be? And guess sometimes there may be interesting ideas and stuff to be learned during those times as well?

It's been really great having a chance to see all the different picks everybody's made - thanks again to JupiterO for getting this thread going

Nice work Sam.

Shoutout to all the guys with LFIN, truly one of the biggest POS I've ever seen in the market and that's with a lot of RIOT in this contest as well. This past week was especially epic going from $70 to $18. Who still owns this garbage?

Thanks for the effort Sam.

Thanks ASAP, Zeno


Gosh, hadn't noticed that LFIN had gone from $70 to $18 in a week's time ... lol, wow!!

Don't recall ever seeing a stock price graph that looks quite like this one - 'cat ears' can't be a good sign ... meow meow >^..^<

Thanks for your updates Sam. I call a chart like that $5 to 80 or whatever in weeks a "Supernova". Just like the star that eventually collapses.

You must be studying for your CMT designation

5 to 80 is just a OkNova. Supernovas are a different formation.

I admit to being a bit nervous. A couple of my picks are very low beta.

Thanks Sam for taking the time to report on everyone's 2018 picks. Still 3 more quarters to go. If the trade war with China heats-up then some emerging market funds like EWZ the iShares Brazil Fund might be the ticket...

Hey DuckU

At the beginning of the year, was trying to pick stocks that seemed like they might still do okay, even if the market overall was just meh from rising interest rates and high valuations? And really liked your idea of going with some of those big Chinese tech stocks, so tried copying your idea and included a China ETF in my pick Everything was still going okay at the end of March - but after the last couple of days, guess things appear to have taken much more of a turn?

Really like your idea of trying to find stuff that may be able to stay out of the fray - or possibly even benefit from the US/China fallout? Does Brazil grow soybeans?


Have been wondering a little bit about how things might wind up playing out with this trade war as well - found this little blast from the past of how Pres. Clinton envisioned the trade pact with China playing out when he signed off on it back in the day ...

Quote:

https://www.iatp.org/files/Full_Text...a_Trade_Bi.htm

Clinton: For the first time, our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in China made by workers here in America without being forced to relocate manufacturing to China, sell through the Chinese government, or transfer valuable technology — for the first time. We'll be able to export products without exporting jobs.

Meanwhile, we'll get valuable new safeguards against any surges of imports from China. We're already preparing for the largest enforcement effort ever given for a trade agreement.

Guess things haven't turned out the way he had hoped, and now the US has huge (and likely unsustainable?) trade deficits? And has only been able to avoid falling into a recession by borrowing money to keep the economy afloat?

Can maybe sort of understand why Trump feels he can 'win' a trade war in a way, if the US' big deficit makes it impossible for China to impose tariffs to the same degree as the US can?

But in the big picture - have also wondered what the long-term effects on the world will wind up being (besides market inefficiency)? Like - do the spoils of the world basically go to the countries that become the go-to exporters of the stuff that the world really needs?

So with the opening up of trade with China around the turn of the century, guess China's taken over as the world's leading manufacturer?

And are the countries in the Middle East still the greatest oil exporters?

While has Germany maybe carved out a niche for themselves in the area of luxury goods manufacturing, like Mercedes cars?

Not sure where Trump sees the US going with these tariffs, in terms of finding a like ... competitive advantage (?) in the world? Guess he's hoping tariffs will make it possible for US steel and solar panel manufacturers to sell at home for cheaper than importers can? But nobody else in the world will be interested in buying those products when China can sell them for cheaper. Will stuff like clothing manufacturing be next?? And if so, will the US maybe just wind up importing stuff from other emerging market countries instead?

Really like your ideas DuckU Have been sitting on the sidelines for a couple of weeks now, just watching to see what everybody else is up to, and what their ideas are for the way things are right now. Have seen Burlington Coat Factories listed in a couple of places - guess they've only semi been moving along with the market ... so half the time they've still been growing the way Dollar Tree apparently did in 2008?

Although as mrbaseball said, the trend is our friend Guess am not feeling so comfortable holding anything right now - but maybe there's a handful of things that may be interesting to keep an eye on?


Anybody else have anything interesting they're keeping an eye on?

Here I come! On a day when SPY is down over 2%, this POS is up 7%! Beta means screw all when only the buy button is available!

Guess I should've went long on this to the moon or zero stock.

Sam, thanks for the kind words.

I believe that Brazil is #2 producer of Soy Beans behind the USA. Brazil accounts for roughly 30% of all soy produced in the world. It seems like they are most likely to benefit from a trade war between USA & China.

Regarding China, I was over in Beijing last year this time and was extremely impressed by use of phones for payment of nearly everything.

Also, here in Vegas watching young Chinese students from UNLV sitting on their phones using WeChat/WePay and shopping on TMall (AliBaba) using AliPay. Check out Main Noodles on Spring Mt. in Vegas to see this phenomenon for yourself.

While this is anecdotal it seemed everyone in Beijing was on their mobile phones using either WeChat or Tmall even people over 50. The young people I spoke with talked about how they use WePay (Tencent) to send money to family and friends.

Moving forward, I'll continue to be long AliBaba and Tencent, also like CTRIP.

Had Alibaba on my watch list over 2 years ago (only stock on my watch list by the way) and was going to buy at ~$ 80. But got distracted as always happens with Taoists, and now I'm just unloading baggage. Simplicity is what makes retirement pleasurable. That and Beer. And perhaps the Laffer curve? Or - Perhaps what is called the.....anyone.........anyone...............The Laughter Curve.

It's been especially interesting to follow the shorts in this contest - guess when the market cap gets small, some of these stocks can get especially volatile? A couple of weeks ago Sears got a one-time tax break and the CEO gave an interview and added a loyalty program, and the share price rose almost 50%

This is my first short in real-life - didn't realize these things would be so volatile, even if it seems like the price should wind up going down eventually? Guess shorts can sometimes be quite a wild ride?


It's amazing how much China sounds like it's grown, compared to how Pres. Clinton described it in his speech! Was pondering the US/China trade war stuff some more - guess with these tariffs, Trump is trying to remedy the US' trade deficit by trying to get the US to buy less from China ... but maybe in the ideal the better way to reduce the trade deficit would be if China were to start buying more from the US? Like by reducing the trade deficit with a net increase in spending, guess that'd be expansionary for the global economy instead of contractionary, would it?

Used to have some GOOGL, and they said their search engines are banned in China - hopefully maybe Trump may start asking China to let more companies have access to the Chinese market, the way Clinton hoped things would be like? Would be interesting to have the chance to see more of the Chinese tech stuff here as well - it sounds like everybody really likes them!!

Saw a kitty cat tote on Alibaba's website once, but they said they only sell to wholesalers, or something? Did you have a nice trip to France Zeno?

Things can really, really go wrong with shorts. KBIO a couple of years ago was a hilarious example. It was a dying biotech company at $1.60 and circling a certain bankruptcy when Martin Shkreli came in late one day and injected $3 million and said he was raising the price of their main drug from $10 to $750.

It jumped instantly and went up over 30x from there, hitting over $40 from $1.60. One guy got cucked hard with a margin call:

Our own jb514 had it short for size and had the sense to make the agonizing decision to get out of the way early only down a substantial but replaceable percentage of his bankroll, even though it was a certain zero in the long run. He made an excellent decision - holding would have wiped him out.

So yeah, shorts can be very, very dangerous. A good portion of the dynamic of Tesla stock is shorts shorting and getting squeezed and covering, again and again. Much of the market cap of crap stocks are shorts getting played for fools over and over.

Speaking of wild shorts, there's an update to the LFIN stock that's in jb's contest portfolio - looks like trading was halted, or something?

Guess with some of these sketchy companies, it sounds like insider wrongdoings and market manipulation may be a potential thing?

Good examples of why I almost never short individual stocks and when I do, I just buy puts.

Are you two okay? It sounds like maybe the two of you aren't in a good place?


Will check in again at the end of the month to do the April summary - GL to everybody still in the market.

Despite rumors to the contrary, Tooth and I are not actually married. Both of us, to my knowledge, are doing fine in our trading.

What's that term the crypto boys use when something implodes?

Ah yes...

ACIA rekt

You just got passed by someone who fell flat on his face out of the gate...

impressive considering the market is back to even on the year

NFLX