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2018 Stock Picking Contest 2018 Stock Picking Contest

12-15-2017 , 02:28 AM
This contest is open to anyone. It's a year long stock picking contest just for fun. Everybody pick 10 stocks to buy or short. No penny stocks(stocks under $3). Only U.S. stocks and ADR's. Dividends count. No trading. Contest starts Jan 1st and ends December 31st 2018. We could possibly bump the start date to the end of the first week of January as it is sort of short notice.

Post your 10 stocks with ticker symbol and be sure to include if you are short.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 12-15-2017 at 02:49 AM.
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12-15-2017 , 03:09 AM
Long ESV (currently 5.26)
Short TSLA (currently 337.89)

Sorry only 2 stocks, im not a fan of diversification
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12-15-2017 , 03:46 AM
The 10 stocks is for an even playing field for contestants. Anybody can get lucky picking just one single stock. It's more of a skill to pick 10.
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12-15-2017 , 05:17 AM
Anyone can get lucky picking a bunch of volatile, correlated stocks. Technically, it should be judged on the best sharpe ratio, though that might be too much work.
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12-15-2017 , 08:16 AM
maybe make it a mandatory 5 shorts? i think looking for shorts is much more interesting, especially in this market.
otherwise we might end up with a winning portfolio of FANGs and similar stocks... which would be boring.

/but anyway i'm in. gonna give my 10 picks sometime after christmas...

Last edited by BooLoo; 12-15-2017 at 08:22 AM.
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12-15-2017 , 08:22 AM
Eh, not a good time for such a contest. There's no value in anything and you're pretty much long the market whatever you pick. And the best non-penny shorts are going to be the insanely overvalued bubble stocks. Very different time to 2009-2014 when there were genuine multi bag bargains to be had.

There are no useful trades to make imo and no differentiators. If the market goes up until the end of next year, the winner will be whoever picks the high beta stocks. If the market goes down, the winner will be whoever shorts the high beta stocks.
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12-15-2017 , 08:29 AM
like i said, make it a mandatory 5/5 split.
you're not gonna find the best stock picker anyway, but it could be a fun thread.
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12-15-2017 , 10:11 AM
The best stock picker is already here. Include crypto's and we're cooking with oil.
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12-15-2017 , 10:22 AM
Long:

SPY
VOO
IVV

Short:

SH
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12-15-2017 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
The best stock picker is already here. Include crypto's and we're cooking with oil.
You're right. Short GBTC @ $2547 is a great trade.
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12-15-2017 , 10:58 AM
Short DPW RIOT XNET MARA GBTC TSLA NVDA DRYS SIEB WINS
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12-15-2017 , 03:05 PM
Long: AGO, SLP, DDS, DS, MGM, ORBT, EDUC
Short: TSLA, GBTC, DRYS

If it's a 5/5 split, drop EDUC and ORBT from the long side and add SSTI and UVXY on the short side
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12-15-2017 , 03:09 PM
Picks should be submitted to a mod by Dec 31 and posted Jan 1
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12-15-2017 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Anyone can get lucky picking a bunch of volatile, correlated stocks.


Juk
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12-15-2017 , 05:47 PM
Short: MAS
Long: PPLT
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12-15-2017 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
maybe make it a mandatory 5 shorts?..
No it is up to the individual. Some people arent comfortable with shorts. Only rule is you have to pick 10.10 long, 10 short or mixed. Picking the wrong shorts can be a killer in a long-term portfolio anyway. Im gonna have some shorts though.
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12-15-2017 , 09:14 PM
Well JB is certainly the favorite here with those picks.

Long: MOS, PPLT, RUN, BKS.

Short: MAS, COST, TSLA, MAR, NFLX, TTWO.
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12-16-2017 , 12:54 AM
Haven't had a chance to do my research for the new year - so it helps to have this thread to give me the motivation to try and get going sooner rather than later

That's an interesting idea to try and include shorts - have given shorting a try in the past, and they went terrible due to lack of research. Will maybe have to give it another try, and will do things differently this time around.

One possible short that came to mind is New York and Company (NYC) - they're supposed to be a perennial underperformer, and their clothes aren't very cute. There's been talk of them possibly filing for bankruptcy for years, but they seem to keep hobbling along

Possible long - Amazon ... also maybe Microsoft? Saw Toothsayer mention in the AAPL thread that he mentioned it 5 years, and that it had outperformed AAPL after 5 years. Is it still expected to continue to do well?
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12-16-2017 , 01:05 AM
Weed is recreationally legal in Canada next summer.

Canadian weed stocks FTW, specifically EMH-X
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12-16-2017 , 03:00 AM
Long: John Silver, Island Iced Tea,

Short: People (got no reason)
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12-16-2017 , 03:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
No it is up to the individual. Some people arent comfortable with shorts. Only rule is you have to pick 10.10 long, 10 short or mixed. Picking the wrong shorts can be a killer in a long-term portfolio anyway. Im gonna have some shorts though.
If we are going to ignore margin calls and only check in at the end of the 2018 to declare a winner:

Long: PUTW, TLT, YUM, ZIV

Short: VXX, UXVY, TVIX, VIXY, EVIX, VMAX

I'm being silly here given that seven of my picks are just essentially one pick, but I'm definitely highly likely to be in first or last place.
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12-16-2017 , 07:45 AM
Does "dividends count" mean they are reinvested, or that they earn some rate of interest (possibly 0%) from payment to the end of the bet?
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12-16-2017 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by river_tilt
Does "dividends count" mean they are reinvested, or that they earn some rate of interest (possibly 0%) from payment to the end of the bet?
Dividends and any distributions will be included, however, without interest and not reinvested.
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12-18-2017 , 08:37 AM
Hi,

Am new to investing (but want to learn) and am in the UK.

Q1: theoretically (I know that's not the point of this) residing elsewhere in the world, am I legally able to invest in all US stocks?
Q2: where can I go to view all the stocks and ADR's that fall into these parameters? (So is there a free platform where I can filter out any investments under $3, US stocks only etc?)
From thread:
Q3: what are ADR's?
Q4: ticker symbol?
Q5: sharpe ratio?
Q6: FANGS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Eh, not a good time for such a contest. There's no value in anything and you're pretty much long the market whatever you pick. And the best non-penny shorts are going to be the insanely overvalued bubble stocks. Very different time to 2009-2014 when there were genuine multi bag bargains to be had.

There are no useful trades to make imo and no differentiators. If the market goes up until the end of next year, the winner will be whoever picks the high beta stocks. If the market goes down, the winner will be whoever shorts the high beta stocks.
There's quite a few q's I had in this post but I think if somebody could unpack the phrase 'multi bag bargain' it might become clear for me

Thanks
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12-18-2017 , 10:32 AM
3: https://www.investopedia.com/university/adr/adr1.asp
4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ticker_symbol
5: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio
6: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet, Inc.).

7 Multi bag bargain. I believe Peter Lynch coined the term multibagger in his book "One Up on Wall Street". A stock which gives a gain of 200% and returns 300% of the investment becomes a 3-bagger. A stock which gives 10 times the investment is called a 10-bagger.

A multibag bargain would be a stock priced at discount to its true value that has the ability to more than double in price.
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