2017 Trading Thread - Page 95 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Gonna try to have a decent trade thesis for mid-east conflict in the next 12-18 months. Trying to do better than zomg zerohedge (lol them). But there's a lot of really interesting dynamics there, and I don't see a lot of paths that don't lead to war of some scale there. Certainly I see it way more likely than any other areas in the world, and the fact that it moves oil the way it does is a bit of a bonus. If such a term can be used without sounding gross.

10-24-2017 , 06:27 PM

#2352

MediocrePlayer2.0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 9,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

BOTZ AI robotics ETF is byfar my favorite investment vehicle. Been long awhile, this one doesnt stop for long.

I own ROBO b/c it's less concentrated .... do you have a strong feeling BOTZ vs ROBO?

Pretty highly correlated anyway per ETFreplay

10-24-2017 , 07:36 PM

#2353

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Anyone have an opinion on Chipotle puts? Tough to time properly and have been priced up recently. Prolly missed the best ones but stock could go alot lower.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Lol you want to buy puts now? Makes no sense, if anything I'd rather go long down here.

Chipotle!

10-24-2017 , 09:58 PM

#2354

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by MediocrePlayer2.0

Pretty highly correlated anyway per ETFreplay

Was just my preference. Yeah I actually liked the lack of diversification in BOTZ bc I thought it would lend toward higher returns. Its up over 50% this year. Like the lower expense ratio too. Only thing good or bad is Nvidia is now a top 1 or 2 holding. BRKS a holding has a trailing PE 40, 23 forward PE, consistent eps growth. Real good top and bottom growth. 40 PE just seems priced for perfection idk w these semi's tho. OMRNF has trailing PE 24, 21 forward.

10-25-2017 , 12:05 AM

#2355

Dagashi3

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 147

I've recently talked to a friend about some investments he's been involved in. He's heavily invested in NXPI.

By no means am I saying anyone should put a dollar into it, I'm just sharing with the forum to take a good look at it. Any views would be appreciated, especially the views against.

Glad I went long SHOP.

10-25-2017 , 12:11 AM

#2356

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Chipotle!

Lesson 293,487: only short stuff that is already going down.

10-25-2017 , 12:19 AM

#2357

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

Lesson 293,487: only short stuff that is already going down.

Related (it was lesson 2 out of my 868,969 trading lessons), never go long any airline, restaurant, manufacturing, mining, energy or shipping stock unless it is on an uptrend already.

10-25-2017 , 04:13 AM

#2358

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dagashi3

Lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

Related (it was lesson 2 out of my 868,969 trading lessons), never go long any airline, restaurant, manufacturing, mining, energy or shipping stock unless it is on an uptrend already.

Dat YUM tho

10-25-2017 , 06:50 AM

#2359

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Chipotle!

Stock went up 20%+ in the two months following that post but alright then (trading thread, yes?) Not as if I've been advocating any long side plays in the name since.

10-25-2017 , 08:29 AM

#2360

Dagashi3

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

Lol

Maybe that didn't come off the way I wanted it to. Was just saying.

10-25-2017 , 09:25 AM

#2361

de captain

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,514

Your 4th post, 8 hrs after joining the forum, was touting "your friends" stock pick with no analysis. How did you expect it to come off?

10-25-2017 , 09:50 AM

#2362

Dagashi3

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 147

Yeah, I realize that now.

10-25-2017 , 10:12 AM

#2363

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Stock went up 20%+ in the two months following that post but alright then (trading thread, yes?) Not as if I've been advocating any long side plays in the name since.

I misunderstood that by long you meant 2 months.

10-25-2017 , 10:53 AM

#2364

jalexand42

Hypothetical Ubermonkey

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 5,390

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Chipotle!

Sigh... I'm long CMG recently and expected it to be a multi-year hold. Really poor earnings result, but feels like an overreaction somewhat too based on the factors that crushed Q3. The comp result clearly terrible tho.

Oh well.

It'll be interesting to see what happens from here...where support might be if it stays down here or if it drifts back up to previous support at $300.

10-25-2017 , 11:18 AM

#2365

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

I misunderstood that by long you meant 2 months.

I misunderstood that by short you meant 22 months (with no posts in between on it while you posted 160+ times in the trading threads).

10-25-2017 , 11:35 AM

#2366

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

been short cmg since it got to 450 (lol). just got long but ideally it would go below 270 before coming back to 280 or higher for max profit

finally some action in the market. taking off some winners. also decided to take a small position short ORLY. buying put verticals

10-25-2017 , 11:46 AM

#2367

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,220

woof, the bad 2 weeks continues on the backs of AMD and PIRS. Granted those are probably buy/hold for me. Still uglyyyyy.

Curious to see how much of today is bought up

10-25-2017 , 01:01 PM

#2368

formula72

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

I liked it as a short at 725. I like it now as a short 275 as well.

10-25-2017 , 01:12 PM

#2369

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,220

Have a question for you long time traders. Was looking at how micro caps did in 2008-2009. Managed to find several that stayed pretty flat in the chaos. This one for example:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/chart/PHO.V

Have a decision with NTS.V which has carried me this year. I think it's been bought up on the backs of a lot institutional buying and I don't think anyone is particularly interested in selling now. It never moves along with the market, not that I've ever seen.

Anyone have experience with micro caps that just totally decouple from market conditions?

10-25-2017 , 02:09 PM

#2370

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,220

buyers buyers everywhere. Days like this are impressive.

10-25-2017 , 03:54 PM

#2371

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

I think that is normal for any low volume micro cap.

10-26-2017 , 12:07 AM

#2372

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

Dat YUM tho

Most innovative company in the country, brother. It should be considered a tech stock.

10-26-2017 , 12:28 AM

#2373

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

I think that is normal for any low volume micro cap.

I'm fairly sure that if you look around you will find that loads of them went bankrupt as well.

Also, why are you looking at how microcaps did during the GFC? Have you built a time machine?

10-26-2017 , 02:39 AM

#2374

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

I'm fairly sure that if you look around you will find that loads of them went bankrupt as well.

Oh certainly; I was more referring to how most low volume micro caps tend to just be totally decoupled to marketing conditions. That of course, also includes going bankrupt even in a flat or good market.