I'm still long my January $190/$210 call spread for NFLX but I added some shorter term put spreads this morning. Some consolidation would be a good thing at this point, taking advantage of the IV crush post ER to lock in profits.

Yeah it's not 100% but it's probably 90%. Netflix puts are solid here. The company beat by huge amount on all metrics, but the thing is so catastrophically overvalued that it went down on a monster beat in an ultra-buoyant bull.

I liked it better when I posted (i.e. when you capture two earnings), but there's still juice here.

A comment I read says it well. You're paying $80,000 for a company that makes $300 profit on $10K sales, is an industry where high profits are impossible, and, if everything goes right, will make $700 next year. And is near saturation in the most profitable markets.

Where the most optimistic of the optimistic bulls, if everything goes right, predicts $5K/year profit in 2024 (5% ROC) - 7 years away.

It's pure nuttery. No one sane pays 1/10th of that. It's like 2000 - an ultra crap stock/business at the end of a long bull.

Wow saw a lot of great trades go bad last 4-5 days. Pretty big 180 in weed in Canada with the TSX delisting threats. Think I'll buy low over selling now. Still positive on WEED and THCX, but not by much.

earning was way inside the expected move which was nice. i found it interesting that they beat expectations and it bid up then sold off. i wouldn't be surprised that the market pulls back in a similar fashion, on good news

i think amzn and tsla have to potential to move with some velocity for similar reasons

Yeah. Year long shorts on AMZN ($1000), NFLX ($200) and TSLA ($350) are pretty likely to have very nice returns.

Sold them for a 70% gain despite everything going against me.
Why be good when you can be lucky instead?

IBM - explain the inexplainable. Such good news surrounding blockchains and watson, but that barely moves the price. Another losing quarter and it bounces up 5%. This company is run worse than the Cleveland Browns and desperately needs new leadership to turn things around. Bake Watson into a new cross platform operating system running across the iot, is that too much to ask?

**** off. XIV was down today

Same thing happened with Microsoft before 2013. Pretty much every moron (including most of the professional investment fund guys here) had the view that it was "dead money" because the price hadn't moved in 10 years since 2012. Never mind that revenue and profit was growing steadily such that it was becoming extremely cheap and was certain to break far higher soon. Never mind an unassailable moat and the certainty of rapid growth. Nope, they all had a groupthink view and sheep being sheep, were reluctant to be the one idiot who breaks from the pack.

This kind of stupidity is money in the bank. If you think the group is wrong and stupid then you profit from it with long term calls - or by selling puts (I'm not a fan of long term calls near the end of long bulls).

This view took 10 years to be correct on MSFT.

Momentum. Wait for it.

I was talking about 2012/2013. There may or may not be a small edge in momentum, but even the most optimistic views of momentum have that number as being pretty small. The edges are way larger in other types of analysis.

Didn't have to wait too long.

I'm just trying to understand the movement today. Rev's might be heating up, but a loss is a loss and sales are down from last year. 22 losing q's in a row and it goes up 10% because it lost by a little less? I'm all for value investments and trades, but these are nonsensical gains being priced in way too early. I'll take it though, bought some awhile back in the $140's.

Sold a ton of 11/17/17 $257 strike SPY calls this afternoon. Also bought a few 255/253 put spreads. A little over extended with the call selling, but it's hard for me to envision SPY much higher than 258 in the next four weeks.

Been dabbling with ES_F futures a bit as well, I wish they traded in .1 ticks instead of .25 though.

check out TF

Of all the nights for my insomnia to kick in... watching HangSeng Index lose 500 points in 30 minutes, i'm riding ES futures all the way down. crazy. Just covered at 2553 from 2557.50. Blood bath tomorrow one time!

Accurate!

2543 oh my god! I covered way too soon. Jesus Christ blood bath tomorrow

Exciting times!

Worst 7 day stretch for me in a while, more painful still since they were all winners at one point.

Stopped out of HOS yesterday, didn't even recall I had the stop. Gave up 12% there. Other trades still have to play out. Enjoy the volatility all !

edit: Stopped out of WEED too. Not going to fight that downtrend, kept that one positive but barely.

Sold THCX 1.97. Another one I needed to time better but still happy with the trade. Lots of dry powder now. Rooting for this to be the start of a downturn now for sure...

pretty much a flip we're unchanged at the close

Yeah. China economics strong, tax reform pending, economic numbers ok. Nothing to really sink it except for the fact that's it absurdly overvalued and in a bubble, which isn't enough by itself usually.

I still think NAFTA jitters are enough to spark chaos. EVEN if Trump can't kill it himself, the news cycle talking of the death of NAFTA would cause significant damage. But it's possible that all it creates is a nice dip to buy.

Pretty disappointed with how I handled today.. took 25% off the table about mid morning, the rest of my holding ended the day red. I think taking a bearish view is risky short term, I can't let my bias of over "market overbought" influence short term trading decisions. That being said, I still think that even short term we're due for a pullback or possibly range bound market, I still find it hard to see a bull rocket in the next 30 days, but I have to admit the bullish bias was extremely strong today.

It's kind of tough for me because I don't want to try and call the top, I also don't want to invest in much at the moment when we're making all time high's every day, maybe LEAP puts on things like AMZN and TSLA are the way to play this? I think higher P/E's are the new norm, but not this high. I don't know, frustrated that I lost out on a few K by not liquidating the entire position this morning. Do I just run with the bulls against my internal overbought barometer until we get confirmation that the bull run is over? I think it's easier to focus on individual stocks as opposed to timing the market, it's proven to be a lot more difficult every time I make an attempt.