No idea where SPY will be, unlike certain posters on here I don't pretend to have it figured out. What I do know is from an index perspective, it's rarely been cheaper to bet on the upside. To someone who doesn't really understand the market, that would seem odd given the continued ATHs. Until you look at how active puts are across the board/how active VIX call buyers continue to be, the complacency argument is one of the biggest misconceptions out there.

how does put pricing look versus 2 weeks ago? i would think right before the end of quarter would make puts a lil more expensive since EOQ downturns are sorta typical. but everything ripping face atm.

like juan, i find it odd that the market is way higher on a proposed growth administration that now can't follow through on ideal tax reform, health care reform, and has to raise debt ceiling aggressively. i just choose to react by being less long in my personal portfolio, since i don't trade options or on long term timeframes.

Hey JB, ITUS IZEA short bias. They're starting to crack support.

No borrows over here so I haven't looked into them. Nice charts though

GLUU for the incoming Taylor Swift bump?

Anyone gonna try and short Roku soon? 1 month predictions? I could see $14.

Was not familiar enough with the industry to commit fully, but took a decent position at 24.40. Had a good move from Florida and is taking off since Puerto Rico.

this actually looks kind of interesting have been totally forgeting about this, taylor swift is probably their biggest name yet so could really get them a ton cash. thanks for the heads up

Know nothing about the space. October 20 $4 calls are 5c. +EV trade?

.03

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republi...dle-1506638523

just lol if they manage to fail passing the tax plan.

Commodity traders, what you make of this:

https://investoralmanac.com/2017/09/...n-commodities/

Are we really setting up at some point for a big rally across commodities driven by increased demand (most notably India)? I've been inclined to shrug off some of that based on the assumption of improved production techniques (across almost every sector) that have made most commodities cheaper. Can we outpace that with demand? Disregarding events that might crash the dollar.

that whole article comes off as a cringey desperate attempt to buy something that they stand to gain for touting, almost gold bug esque.

macro commodities are incredibly hard to predict, highly influenced by dollar movement, and a major part of commodities as a whole is the energy sector which of course is its own fun topic.

this whole quote is just lol, like just totally ignoring the fundamentals of why the pull backs happened and what has to happen for it to be such an incredible buying opportunity

if you want to make a broad commitment to commodities and energies as a whole, you have to have a strong and well thought out opinion on refiners and production costs measured against shale plus demand, you don't just go "herp derp oh look at the charts here compared to the charts there, ez game"

if anything the article, to me anyways, is just calling for a tightening of the spread of equities against commodities. to me that's more just commentary on the heat in equities and less the bearishness in commodities. one could bet the spread but really it's just the dollar more than anything else imo.

separately speaking, this newfound talk of demand from India comes against a background of just a massive quantity of commodities, be it the shale/opec glut in oil or the massive basis gluts in agriculture. if you wanted to have an opinion where India mattered in commodities, you would look toward Gold as they are a primary Gold buyer. but oil or wheat, I'm not really buying it. current industries are just producing a ton of the stuff and China could absorb just about any demand-related issue when it comes to growing stuff out of the ground. additionally you have solar incentives on a similar timeframe as india becoming a primary emerging market.

My spidey sense says that the idea is generally correct and we're in for another commodities boom. The wildcard is a recession, but after that, sure.

This part of the thesis is shaky however:
Indians have an average IQ of 82. The Chinese have an average IQ of 105. This is not intended to be a discussion of race and IQ, but these are the numbers whatever their cause, environmental or genetic, and they don't change quickly. Thus India is never going to see the kind of rapid sustained prolonged development to a modern economy that places like China and Korea have. They don't have the IQ base to support it; it will falter and die.

The cause is likely brain drain, as Indians have the highest IQs and incomes in the US. Too bad for India:

https://pumpkinperson.com/2015/06/08...-in-each-race/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...usehold_income

No, the cause is not brain drain; that's just ridiculous if you look at the numbers or compare with China. The handful in the US are just the 0.1% and their descendants, and would have no effect on average IQ.

But brain drain is certainly a part of what will keep India down. The handful of brilliant people are what help move society forward. Not that it needs helps much in their case. Their average IQ is 82. They have no shot at becoming a modern nation any time soon.

See I landed somewhere like this between you guys. I found the article made no particularly convincing points, but still spidey sense that commodities could still be an incredible long term buy despite that. Guess I have some significant reading to do on their price cycles.

I'm in your camp, I didn't find the article that compelling. Long term I do think increasing demand is going to outstrip supply.

On a related note, here's another commodity claim out today:

The Cobalt Cliff Will Crush Tesla's Business And May Restore Some Sanity To The EV Industry

I think you can probably pick commodities with some deep research. I have no particular view myself, there isn't enough of an edge in commodities to be interesting, and you're betting against very deep knowledge. But if you want an alternative to the no-edge-long stock market, commodities might be somewhere to look.

i think it's definitely worth reading into, i just primarily took exception with the article. it stinks of being written by someone who, if you e-mailed them to express interest in their article, they'd try to sell you some commodities etf or something. predicting macro commodity fundamentals is just a lot more stringent than studying cycles.

sweet baby science ROKU

I bought late at open, have 643 shares at a $28.60 average.

Can this thing really keep going? I'm okay with a loss on it, just not real sure where to set the stop.

I would be very very careful with your price average

Yeah, playing with fire. I'm generally a big fan of long tech IPOs unless it's a turd (SNAP), but $28 is a long way from where it opened.

Short interest reports due today. Do they come out after the close? I've never checked the day of their release.

VIPS is back on the watch list...

Quite the fall from grace

Also amazing the shorts caught up in ZGNX right now. Had a huge short float, and a pretty small float to begin with. DRYS-like