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2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

05-23-2017 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
- Coinbase was down for an extended period due to technical issues.
- Bitcoin is such a cuckshow that this tiny bit of fear was enough to sink something with a $35 billion market cap 10% in 15 minutes
- Coinbase is back online and hence fear is abated.
- It's not in a tulip bubble full of mad speculators, obviously.
Why does gold have value, hell why do currencies themselves? I thought the point was to make money, not have pre-conceived notions of how the world works. Digital currency and the block chain is already seeing major instutional investment, it's clear the fundamentals have never been better. The technicals of parabolic moves higher is a completely different story... The two need to be separated.
05-23-2017 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
- It's not in a tulip bubble full of mad speculators, obviously.
You sure? You're telling me Ripple's price movement isn't worthy of that distinction?
05-24-2017 , 01:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Why does gold have value, hell why do currencies themselves? I thought the point was to make money, not have pre-conceived notions of how the world works. Digital currency and the block chain is already seeing major instutional investment, it's clear the fundamentals have never been better. The technicals of parabolic moves higher is a completely different story... The two need to be separated.
I don't see how "block chain seeing major institutional investment" would create long-term value in any particular (or any) cryptocurrency, unless instead of investing in "block chain technology" they are investing in actual cryptocurrencies.

Do the cryptocurrencies get a royalty by, let's say, Chase bank deciding to incorporate block chain technology in a back office application?

I've seen that as a reason why cryptocurrencies will become more valuable over time, but cannot see any possible connection that would make this even plausible. I am almost sure that the dollar sign on my keyboard is what is propping up the value of the USD...
05-24-2017 , 07:40 AM
Moody's downgrades China's debt from Aa3 to A1, taking it from high grade to upper-medium grade, the first downgrade in 25 years.

Markets are flat right now, no reaction so far.

The China debt bubble is a big deal that few people talk about. With the market at all time highs, I wonder if this will impact in any way.

Fed at 2pm also. Interesting day.
05-24-2017 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Digital currency and the block chain is already seeing major instutional investment, it's clear the fundamentals have never been better.
2014; Valeant pharmaceuticals at $200 is seeing major large institutional investment from some of the most respected funds (Sequoia is just one),
it's clear the fudamentals have never been better.

1999: Enron is seeing major large institutional investment, it's clear the fundamentals have never been better.

2007: Subprime CDOs are seeing major institutional investment - every bank on Wall Street is piling into them - it's clear the fundamentals have never been better.
05-24-2017 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Why does gold have value, hell why do currencies themselves? I thought the point was to make money, not have pre-conceived notions of how the world works. Digital currency and the block chain is already seeing major instutional investment, it's clear the fundamentals have never been better. The technicals of parabolic moves higher is a completely different story... The two need to be separated.
It seems there are various reasons why gold may have value:
* It's actual tangible uses in, e.g., electronics and jewelry.
* The amount of energy required to produce (mine and refine) it.
* It's scarcity (which alone shouldn't be enough).
* Pure perception, as can be with anything.

It also has value as money, thru tradition, but the reasons for that tradition include it meeting the criteria of money: Gold is an element, so one piece of identical weight and purity is the same as another... it is divisible... it does not spoil... etc.

So when looking at block chains:
* It has use as currency, but is dependent on technology (computers, networks... don't lose your PW), as it's not tangible.
* I don't actually know how much energy is required to "mine" it (is that verifying block chains?), perhaps someone can inform me. It seems like it might be several hundred dollars per BTC?
* It has an artificial scarcity in the sense that unending competition can arise (unless there is/are universally accepted standard(s) of sorts like with "paper" currency).
* The power of perception is strong with this one (I'm not saying it's purely perception, but it seems a big part).
05-24-2017 , 12:28 PM
long LPTH 3.04. Consistent revenue grwth,decent balance sheet,10% roe, low mk. Sidenote: I'm trying to find small or mid-cap public companies exposed to the artificial intelligence market. AI is expected to grow substantially over the next 5 to 10 years. Thoughts? I suppose it depends where its application will be.
05-24-2017 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
I'm starting to feel like cryptos are getting to the point where we should start looking into how to short/bet against them. Obviously yes, a lot of the altcoins can easily double from here and bitcoin can definitely trade to 4k in the short term but this is part of the game. It probably makes sense to figure out ahead of time what we can do if a negative catalyst makes shorting appealing.
Yo dude (or anyone else)... What do you think about shorting GBTC if it's possible to obtain some shares (the Bitcoin investment trust that is substantially overvalued compared to their NAV) and going long the underlying Bitcoin as an arb play?

Last edited by ASAP17; 05-24-2017 at 01:50 PM.
05-25-2017 , 09:48 AM
ANF - it's payday, but does it ever get back above $20?

Steel's been getting hammered. Time to load up
05-25-2017 , 10:40 AM
is anyone playing around with options on the cryptos at all? thinking about throwing a few bets this week but have no idea how to go about choosing a reliable exchange
05-25-2017 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Yo dude (or anyone else)... What do you think about shorting GBTC if it's possible to obtain some shares (the Bitcoin investment trust that is substantially overvalued compared to their NAV) and going long the underlying Bitcoin as an arb play?
how substantial is substantially?

most companies trade higher than their nav, p/e, p/b.
05-25-2017 , 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBP04
thinking about throwing a few bets this week but have no idea how to go about choosing a reliable exchange
Why get in now and not at $200? Very little has changed except you're paying 10x the price for the same sized fundamental base.
05-25-2017 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arseface
how substantial is substantially?

most companies trade higher than their nav, p/e, p/b.
Is the GBTC a company? It tracks the underlying and thats about it. No **** companies are valued above their NAVs lol. Unfortunately to my original point it's very difficult (impossible?) for any retail to get shares right now to short. Tried through my brokers and no dice.
05-25-2017 , 11:22 AM
lol HOS
05-25-2017 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
lol HOS
Good God. That's a few $ I will not get back
05-25-2017 , 11:34 AM
Removed from the S&P smallcap 600 from what I'm reading. Probably room for it to fall more here. Downgrades gotta be coming.
05-25-2017 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Removed from the S&P smallcap 600 from what I'm reading. Probably room for it to fall more here. Downgrades gotta be coming.
It's game over and the writing has been on the wall for a couple years now. Tidewater will stop trading shortly, HOS will be right behind.
05-25-2017 , 11:49 AM
I road HOS to the ground. Am I the only one ?


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05-25-2017 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
It's game over and the writing has been on the wall for a couple years now. Tidewater will stop trading shortly, HOS will be right behind.
You short?
05-25-2017 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twalf
I road HOS to the ground. Am I the only one ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You are far from the only one, just search BFI and you will find plenty of company.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
You short?
Not currently but I have in the past... You have a decent amount of experience playing for short term bounces in this name, what say you?
05-25-2017 , 12:49 PM
Made a bit off of AMZN $1k weeklies this morning, crazy that they 10xd in a couple hours despite everyone basically assuming it would happen today given the overall market.
05-25-2017 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Why get in now and not at $200? Very little has changed except you're paying 10x the price for the same sized fundamental base.
talking about buying puts...
05-25-2017 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
You are far from the only one, just search BFI and you will find plenty of company.



Not currently but I have in the past... You have a decent amount of experience playing for short term bounces in this name, what say you?
I only ask because you had such conviction on the short that it would be disappointing if you didn't ride the $10 right into the $1 mark. You've been right on with the call, wondered why you didn't back it.

In terms of bounces, yeah I'm gearing up for one here. But not this week.
05-25-2017 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBP04
talking about buying puts...
They're aren't options for BTC unless I'm missing something...
05-25-2017 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Is the GBTC a company? It tracks the underlying and thats about it. No **** companies are valued above their NAVs lol. Unfortunately to my original point it's very difficult (impossible?) for any retail to get shares right now to short. Tried through my brokers and no dice.
GBTC is the fund controlled by Greyscale, a branch of the Digital Currency Group (aka, barry silbert).

each share represents 0.1 BTC and come from private investors who have held shares with DGC for a > 1 yr minimum. Those shares then become eligible to be sold OTC as GBTC.

thus, the shares are pretty rare, and are/were held by a few private investors (such as palihapitiya and silberts family/friends likely).

      
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