2017 Trading Thread - Page 30 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

trumps tax talk gets everyone really excited. volatility got completely sucked out of the market today. if oil stops falling, its going to be a really rough time for bears imo

Yeah I don't ever remember seeing a vol crush this bad. From 15 to 10.8 - near all time record low - in one day.

04-25-2017 , 02:46 AM

#727

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Yeah I don't ever remember seeing a vol crush this bad. From 15 to 10.8 - near all time record low - in one day.

I thought when the TARP got announced, it was the largest point drop and percentage drop... Guess it wasn't even top ten material percentage wise.

04-25-2017 , 05:10 AM

#728

Steiger

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 145

I guess selling volatility before events might be a good idea

04-25-2017 , 10:04 AM

#729

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

trumps tax talk gets everyone really excited. volatility got completely sucked out of the market today. if oil stops falling, its going to be a really rough time for bears imo

personally i would wait for trump to trump the market with tax talk before buying puts

you are right, I pegged at as the best entry point being right about now, so i only got in a little so far, going to fire the next half bullet now , gl to me

04-25-2017 , 10:30 AM

#730

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,118

Feels good to be low on loonies and high on usd. Could see the loonie really get smoked even farther. Would celebrate that.

04-25-2017 , 10:56 AM

#731

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Yeah I don't ever remember seeing a vol crush this bad. From 15 to 10.8 - near all time record low - in one day.

yeah its interesting for sure. FXE iv rank was 100, obviously people lost faith in polls. i get that people are excited at the prospect of frexit not happening and a tax cut but approaching all time lows in vix while theres threats of using nukes being thrown around and government shutdown, i think being long vol after the market reacts to trumps speech is a no brainer

04-25-2017 , 11:29 AM

#732

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

STRP bidding war is hilarious, this market doesn't give a ****.

04-25-2017 , 11:45 AM

#733

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Weren't there a few NFLX $150 or $75 first bets on here? Touched $149.90 in the AH after ER & now has violated the lows breached in the initial move down. Would be pretty hilarious if that becomes the short term top...

Gg guys, was a good battle but can't fight this bull market especially names that show any sort of growth. Minster squeeze intraday.

04-25-2017 , 12:10 PM

#734

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Bet was over nearly a year ago - it was a push if it didn't breach either after a year.

Fun sweat though.

04-25-2017 , 12:44 PM

#735

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Important lesson from names like CAT & MCD... Don't underestimate the power of an earnings trough. Both destroyed their estimates which had already been ratcheted up quite a bit over the past few quarters.

04-25-2017 , 01:12 PM

#736

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

STRP bidding war is hilarious, this market doesn't give a ****.

Now Verizon blasting. Att has 5 days to respond.

04-25-2017 , 01:20 PM

#737

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steiger

I guess selling volatility before events might be a good idea

it works until it goes horribly wrong... my buddy sold SPX vol right before the first bail out vote... that turned into a quick -250k loser real quick.

04-25-2017 , 01:39 PM

#738

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,118

Quote:

Originally Posted by LittleGoliath

I'm very interested how the markets will react on the past/current events with the US & North-Korea on tuesday (and all the other geopolotical turmoil). It seems likely a (big) correction is right around the corner, no?

bump.

dip was indeed bought

04-25-2017 , 01:41 PM

#739

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Sears has been a great short over the past week and I'm not covering. Plan to add on any strength going forward. Just stock given the options are much more expensive to play.

04-25-2017 , 02:25 PM

#740

Steiger

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 145

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenatorKevin

it works until it goes horribly wrong... my buddy sold SPX vol right before the first bail out vote... that turned into a quick -250k loser real quick.

Poor risk management

04-25-2017 , 02:27 PM

#741

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Is anyone familiar with SPG? Large mall operator, which a large exposure to SHLD. Analysts seem to be pretty upbeat on them, even with the current headwinds.

Was reading over their annual report last night and you could make both a bull and bear case.

04-25-2017 , 02:41 PM

#742

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steiger

Poor risk management

In hindsight sure. Selling VIX in the 40/50s at that time didn't seem all that crazy... His firm ate the loss and he was at another firm the next week.

04-25-2017 , 03:04 PM

#743

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenatorKevin

Check out SRG

04-25-2017 , 04:27 PM

#744

ethbtc88

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 710

are you guys aware there are places about 12,000,000x better to discuss investing than this nearly dead forum? why do you stay here, just familiar avatars?

04-25-2017 , 04:38 PM

#745

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by ethbtc88

are you guys aware there are places about 12,000,000x better to discuss investing than this nearly dead forum? why do you stay here, just familiar avatars?

sucks for them, because there are some pretty smart dudes in this thread.

04-25-2017 , 04:41 PM

#746

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by ethbtc88

are you guys aware there are places about 12,000,000x better to discuss investing than this nearly dead forum? why do you stay here, just familiar avatars?

Like?

Also there's some form of equity in just about everything.

04-25-2017 , 04:56 PM

#747

DoctorZangief

banned

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 2,559

Anyone looking at X?

04-25-2017 , 05:11 PM

#748

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by ethbtc88

are you guys aware there are places about 12,000,000x better to discuss investing than this nearly dead forum? why do you stay here, just familiar avatars?

already on this site to begin with and the thin audience is actually a positive. quality post btw.

04-25-2017 , 05:12 PM

#749

SenatorKevin

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Check out SRG

Thanks. Are you mentioning them because they are in the same space or do you have an opinion on them?

04-25-2017 , 05:25 PM

#750

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenatorKevin

Which analysts? Look for a trade I'm all ears especially on a flip but longer term the bear case is clear and the bull case isn't. The anchors are going away, it's inevitable and only a matter of when not if. What they decide to do with those spaces will decide their fates. Speciality stores will have much longer staying power so it's not all horrible news for them. Sears is going down & JCP appears to be right behind.

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