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Old 01-04-2017, 10:50 PM   #51
bluefall
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
I've heard it touted a few times in here, but I still don't understand the "uniform betsizing" thing. Shouldn't I be tailoring the size of the trade to the underlying risk, and my confidence in the correct answer?
I think you're in the right mindset. I try to trade according to uniform portfolio risk but can do a lot better job of it. Let's say I'm trading $100k and willing to risk 0.5%. That may then mean 200 shares of AAPL at $100 or 1000 shares of HOS at $5.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:19 PM   #52
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

By uniform bet sizing I mean keep your risk per trade/strategy fairly consistent. I like to look at risk per trade just in terms of pnl, shares or position is frequently irrelevant. So if I think the probable downside is 4 pts and I want to risk $5k, I'd get in 1200 or 1300 shares.

If I identify four set ups I want to trade, it's better to risk more or less the same amount on all four set ups(liquidity permitting). I see a lot of guys trade vastly different sizes based on their "conviction" or some other variable they haven't tested and inevitably they turn a fairly consistent strategy into a very volatile strategy.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:35 PM   #53
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

What are people's thoughts on leveraged ETFs? They get a lot of hate but not sure it is warranted.

By various risk adjusted measures they do tend to perform worse than unleveraged.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:37 PM   #54
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ibavly View Post
What are people's thoughts on leveraged ETFs? They get a lot of hate but not sure it is warranted.

By various risk adjusted measures they do tend to perform worse than unleveraged.
they're great for shorting (if you can get cheap borrow)
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:05 AM   #55
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Time decay?
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:21 AM   #56
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Time decay?
time decay is options terminology that doesn't really apply. they decay for other reasons.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:25 AM   #57
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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time decay is options terminology that doesn't really apply. they decay for other reasons.
Ah got it.. google is fun and math makes sense
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:34 AM   #58
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on View Post
Ah got it.. google is fun and math makes sense
the volatility decay or whatever they may call it isn't really decay. the real decay is from trading costs/slippage/etc when they rebalance.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:38 AM   #59
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
the volatility decay or whatever they may call it isn't really decay. the real decay is from trading costs/slippage/etc when they rebalance.
This also makes a lot of sense
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Old 01-05-2017, 01:23 AM   #60
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Yeah the volatility decay seems to be the biggest thing people have going against it, which is somewhat silly. I agree transaction costs might be crippling, need to look into that.

Over a long time horizon do you expect the leveraged account to generate lower returns than the regular one in terms of total returns (ignoring volatility)
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:44 PM   #61
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Those 100k TLT calls almost have doubled today on a 1%+ move, probably going to take some profits as we hit $122. Really pleased with the action across the board today.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:52 PM   #62
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Happy New year. Subbed for another year.

Looking to take the lessons learned in 2016 and apply in 2017.

Started off making a few swing trades around CES 2017. VUZI is gonna be interesting in 2017.
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Old 01-05-2017, 01:39 PM   #63
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Those 100k TLT calls almost have doubled today on a 1%+ move, probably going to take some profits as we hit $122. Really pleased with the action across the board today.
Nice trade.
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Old 01-05-2017, 01:58 PM   #64
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ibavly View Post
What are people's thoughts on leveraged ETFs? They get a lot of hate but not sure it is warranted.

By various risk adjusted measures they do tend to perform worse than unleveraged.
Contango destroys these long term right? Obviously they can be pretty profitable as a short term thing. I think there's better investment vehicles if you want to leverage yourself on an underlying asset.
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Old 01-05-2017, 03:36 PM   #65
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
Contango destroys these long term right? Obviously they can be pretty profitable as a short term thing. I think there's better investment vehicles if you want to leverage yourself on an underlying asset.
Cotango drag only applies to commodity or VIX ETFs.
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Old 01-05-2017, 04:14 PM   #66
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

subscribing for the new year. gl us!
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Old 01-05-2017, 04:45 PM   #67
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Shorted NFLX 132.29

First trade of 2017.
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Old 01-05-2017, 04:56 PM   #68
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

GPRO decent move, holding till I get a signal. In TECK
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Old 01-05-2017, 11:09 PM   #69
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Long bias NAK on green
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Old 01-05-2017, 11:13 PM   #70
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by formula72 View Post
Shorted NFLX 132.29

First trade of 2017.
Did you borrow shares? I think you might be in a tough position if you did.
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Old 01-05-2017, 11:15 PM   #71
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

LOL almost posted this but didn't feel like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
time decay is options terminology that doesn't really apply. they decay for other reasons.
stinky is right in that its not time decay, but it sort of feels like it is bc assuming the price of the underlying remains constant, the longer you hold the more you lose.

They are really just management fees.
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:42 AM   #72
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Can y'all post some 2016 graphs? Enjoy following this thread and curious how y'all end up on such active management.
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:55 AM   #73
KiNgLeGa
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

anyone going long Mexican peso? surely can't be a bad entry point now.
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Old 01-06-2017, 12:44 PM   #74
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
Contango destroys these long term right? Obviously they can be pretty profitable as a short term thing. I think there's better investment vehicles if you want to leverage yourself on an underlying asset.
No
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Old 01-06-2017, 12:45 PM   #75
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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They are really just management fees.
No
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