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Wouldn't advise anyone to buy spy puts in these upcoming 2 weeks. The France election upside is gonna keep it rolling at least until after Macron is elected imho. But hey good luck man.
Yeah I'm not seeing an obvious trade short. But still. Government shutdown is coming up. If Trump can't even get his meagre wall funding through, it doesn't say much good about his bigger ambitions. I suspect Trump will fold fairly quickly on that demand, but I'm not sure that's a positive either.
US economic data has been disappointing the last week. Earnings season is underway. I'm not sure the French election matters that much.
Some traders think the post Trump surge is mostly global central bank money going into US stocks.That's the only angle I can see where Le Pen's impending defeat keeps things up by itself.