Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Market controls the fed, watch what happens when/if there is a correction that doesn't get snap bought. The re-rating of these odds just in the last couple weeks especially on the longer end proves how dislocated/one-sided the trade can get.
Having said that TLT is still flat on the year after today, given all the hype short rates & long inflation the long end refuses to budge (not to mention how much lower they are in Japan/Europe). There is a contradiction in the action that has to be resolved.
By market, I'm guessing you mean equities. True, but more likely there's a common driver making equities rally and Yellen to hike, which is that economic headwinds (e.g. commodities/energy bear market, Brexit, election uncertainty etc) are dissolved and are being replaced by a fiscally aggressive administration. The odds shifted dramatically the first few days of March, when Trump addressed Congress on Wednesday (1st), and S&P touches 2400 Thursday, and all fed members spoke on Friday.
And very odd behavior in the bond market, which I'm surprised isn't being discussed here. We should rename this thread to the "penny stock trading" thread.