I dunno, maybe try a thread where forex traders actually post

Nice rip on my CSBR today. Tal didnt trigger.stopped out of all my finnies short to xlf

Can you direct me to which thread specifically?
Thanks!

Futures and equities are a sandbox compared to currencies. We're talking "trillions" traded daily. Poker's a sandbox compared to all capital markets.

Not even close

The most challenging prerequisite for becoming a successful forex trader is gaining the ability to find a forex trading thread without the help of anyone.

Best of luck!

2016 I made 203%. I'm hoping I can keep compounding at somewhere near this rate. There were no crazy winning trades/losing trades. I had a handful of big 5 figure winners and losers but nothing all that close to KBIO/flash crash like swings at least in terms of % of account. I saw some inefficiency trades die out this year. There were fewer set ups and poorer risk/reward, which makes me think the really easy money is almost gone from the market.

I think the biggest change is that I learned to have lower and/or more realistic expectations. Obviously I expect my strategies to work, but I've gotten more accustomed to expecting drawdowns and expecting new ideas to not pan out. I've gotten continuously more model based to the point I'm near 100% model based. Every set up I trade I've seen something very similar numerous times before and I have data or backtests to verify it. Backtesting/model/systems trading totally works at least for me and it's way less stressful than trying to be the "genius" who can short the top or call a bottom.

I would also change the line above to: only bet when you have a big edge, and have uniform bet sizing

Uniform bet sizing in relation to total size of account?

Sounds suspiciously like system based technical trading. Haven't you heard? That type of approach doesn't work

Emotions and my silly assumptions about market efficiency kept me from keeping my CSBR but I'm re-entering at 3.

Out all CSBR 3.18 from 2.46. Boom 30%

I've heard it touted a few times in here, but I still don't understand the "uniform betsizing" thing. Shouldn't I be tailoring the size of the trade to the underlying risk, and my confidence in the correct answer?

What type of backtesting/models?

Also, are you cross-validating?

I wouldn't consider data-driven trading technical analysis at all. You need to get out of the "technical vs fundamental" dichotomy.

That is where we disagree as I see data driven trading 100% technical.

Sound advice for discretionary traders. Safe to assume their net alpha isn't nearly as large as they think it is nor can they accurately quantify their alpha or risk. Although uniform bet sizing isn't always possible, for many discretionary traders, it should be.

you might wanna take some profits( like half of position if u have decent size on)while its holding up here in 3.20s. Its eventually gotta consolidate.

Right, because so many technical analysis books talk about backtesting, overfitting, cross-validating, z-testing, programming etc. I guess HFT are also technical traders.

Cross-validating as in in/out of sample? No not really. The one thing I feel like I do differently than most people playing the backtesting game, is that I'm way more diversified. I try to stay evenly balanced between long/short and mean reversion and trend/momentum so that any one regime doesn't kick your ass. I also backtest a fair amount of fundamental stuff, so it's not all technical

Yep out CSRB at 3.25 avg.

Enjoying some time away from my usual routine. Only real trade is letting NAL.TO run. It's going to break 2.40 , I accumulated post OPEC in the 1.80's. Would be very happy to sell at 2.50.

Anyone watching the move in nat gas past few sessions? Vicious.

Horrible from KSS & M wow. Added more to my DKS short today so pretty pleased about the news.

HFT is 100% technical

In GPRO here with close above 20MA

Apparently anything beyond the scope of Murphy's books from a previous century can't be considered technical.

Because you are defining technical analysis as literally the complement of fundamental analysis, and such a term has little value. A more pragmatic definition would be one derived from looking at the common elements in a basket of technical analysis books or techniques, e.g. charting patterns, charting tools, and indicators. But techniques such as backtesting, cross-validating, correlation analysis, programming etc, which btw will hardly ever be found in a basket of technical analysis books, is more accurately described as data science or quantitative analysis. If you don't believe me, then how many trading job titles do you see called Senior Technical Analyst? Cleary, the industry has made a distinction here.