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Old 01-03-2017, 04:45 PM   #26
stinkypete
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I dunno, maybe try a thread where forex traders actually post
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Old 01-03-2017, 05:06 PM   #27
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Nice rip on my CSBR today. Tal didnt trigger.stopped out of all my finnies short to xlf
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Old 01-03-2017, 05:41 PM   #28
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Can you direct me to which thread specifically?
Thanks!
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Old 01-03-2017, 06:11 PM   #29
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by vladoivanov View Post
I have heard that there are many similarities between forex and poker
Futures and equities are a sandbox compared to currencies. We're talking "trillions" traded daily. Poker's a sandbox compared to all capital markets.

Not even close
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Old 01-03-2017, 06:34 PM   #30
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by vladoivanov View Post
Can you direct me to which thread specifically?
Thanks!
The most challenging prerequisite for becoming a successful forex trader is gaining the ability to find a forex trading thread without the help of anyone.

Best of luck!
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:25 AM   #31
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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For 2015 I ended up making around 190%. Can't really compare that result to the more passive traders around here. I'm full time researching/trading and using a decent amount of leverage. The two biggest events of 2015 for me were the flash crash and KBIO, where I was short at $2. I lost almost exactly as much on KBIO than I made on the flash crash.

I learned two things I really want to follow through on, in 2016.

Have an exit thesis. This means don't have an ambiguous stop/target, or for longer term guys, don't trim your position simply because its become too big a percent of your book. If you trim/close a position just because you are up X amount, you really skew the risk reward of your trades. This will make a huge difference across the sum of all of your trades. If you don't capitalize on your winners, you'll really feel the losers. I do a lot of backtesting and a lot of strategies perform much better if you scalp less, and let your trades breath and let the winners run. Trades where a year ago I would have taken off for a 1 pt gain, I now find myself being patient when I'm up 2 pts holding out for 3 pts.

The second is, bet really big when you have a big edge. When your edge is very big, bet big enough for it to make a difference on your bottom line. What got me thinking about it, is looking at how much heat I've taken on trades that weren't really that good of set ups, or didn't have that strong of a thesis. Your returns from your trades with large edges should dwarf returns from your trades with small edges.

Current Positions
Long CNL SLH NKA RAD

Short LEI RWLK GSI
2016 I made 203%. I'm hoping I can keep compounding at somewhere near this rate. There were no crazy winning trades/losing trades. I had a handful of big 5 figure winners and losers but nothing all that close to KBIO/flash crash like swings at least in terms of % of account. I saw some inefficiency trades die out this year. There were fewer set ups and poorer risk/reward, which makes me think the really easy money is almost gone from the market.

I think the biggest change is that I learned to have lower and/or more realistic expectations. Obviously I expect my strategies to work, but I've gotten more accustomed to expecting drawdowns and expecting new ideas to not pan out. I've gotten continuously more model based to the point I'm near 100% model based. Every set up I trade I've seen something very similar numerous times before and I have data or backtests to verify it. Backtesting/model/systems trading totally works at least for me and it's way less stressful than trying to be the "genius" who can short the top or call a bottom.

I would also change the line above to: only bet when you have a big edge, and have uniform bet sizing
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:32 AM   #32
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Uniform bet sizing in relation to total size of account?
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Old 01-04-2017, 10:13 AM   #33
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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I've gotten continuously more model based to the point I'm near 100% model based. Every set up I trade I've seen something very similar numerous times before and I have data or backtests to verify it. Backtesting/model/systems trading totally works at least for me and it's way less stressful than trying to be the "genius" who can short the top or call a bottom.
Sounds suspiciously like system based technical trading. Haven't you heard? That type of approach doesn't work
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:19 AM   #34
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Nice rip on my CSBR today. Tal didnt trigger.stopped out of all my finnies short to xlf
Emotions and my silly assumptions about market efficiency kept me from keeping my CSBR but I'm re-entering at 3.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:38 AM   #35
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Out all CSBR 3.18 from 2.46. Boom 30%
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:57 AM   #36
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I've heard it touted a few times in here, but I still don't understand the "uniform betsizing" thing. Shouldn't I be tailoring the size of the trade to the underlying risk, and my confidence in the correct answer?
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:24 PM   #37
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by jb514 View Post
I've gotten continuously more model based to the point I'm near 100% model based. Every set up I trade I've seen something very similar numerous times before and I have data or backtests to verify it. Backtesting/model/systems trading totally works at least for me and it's way less stressful than trying to be the "genius" who can short the top or call a bottom.
[/B]
What type of backtesting/models?

Also, are you cross-validating?
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:27 PM   #38
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Sounds suspiciously like system based technical trading. Haven't you heard? That type of approach doesn't work
I wouldn't consider data-driven trading technical analysis at all. You need to get out of the "technical vs fundamental" dichotomy.
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:25 PM   #39
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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I wouldn't consider data-driven trading technical analysis at all. You need to get out of the "technical vs fundamental" dichotomy.
That is where we disagree as I see data driven trading 100% technical.
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:12 PM   #40
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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I would also change the line above to: only bet when you have a big edge, and have uniform bet sizing
Sound advice for discretionary traders. Safe to assume their net alpha isn't nearly as large as they think it is nor can they accurately quantify their alpha or risk. Although uniform bet sizing isn't always possible, for many discretionary traders, it should be.
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:50 PM   #41
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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CSBR but I'm re-entering at 3.
you might wanna take some profits( like half of position if u have decent size on)while its holding up here in 3.20s. Its eventually gotta consolidate.
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:01 PM   #42
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
That is where we disagree as I see data driven trading 100% technical.
Right, because so many technical analysis books talk about backtesting, overfitting, cross-validating, z-testing, programming etc. I guess HFT are also technical traders.
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:08 PM   #43
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Cross-validating as in in/out of sample? No not really. The one thing I feel like I do differently than most people playing the backtesting game, is that I'm way more diversified. I try to stay evenly balanced between long/short and mean reversion and trend/momentum so that any one regime doesn't kick your ass. I also backtest a fair amount of fundamental stuff, so it's not all technical
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:32 PM   #44
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Yep out CSRB at 3.25 avg.
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:03 PM   #45
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Enjoying some time away from my usual routine. Only real trade is letting NAL.TO run. It's going to break 2.40 , I accumulated post OPEC in the 1.80's. Would be very happy to sell at 2.50.

Anyone watching the move in nat gas past few sessions? Vicious.
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:09 PM   #46
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Horrible from KSS & M wow. Added more to my DKS short today so pretty pleased about the news.
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:47 PM   #47
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Right, because so many technical analysis books talk about backtesting, overfitting, cross-validating, z-testing, programming etc. I guess HFT are also technical traders.
HFT is 100% technical
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Old 01-04-2017, 06:31 PM   #48
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

In GPRO here with close above 20MA
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:29 PM   #49
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Right, because so many technical analysis books talk about backtesting, overfitting, cross-validating, z-testing, programming etc. I guess HFT are also technical traders.
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HFT is 100% technical
Apparently anything beyond the scope of Murphy's books from a previous century can't be considered technical.
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Old 01-04-2017, 08:36 PM   #50
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
HFT is 100% technical
Because you are defining technical analysis as literally the complement of fundamental analysis, and such a term has little value. A more pragmatic definition would be one derived from looking at the common elements in a basket of technical analysis books or techniques, e.g. charting patterns, charting tools, and indicators. But techniques such as backtesting, cross-validating, correlation analysis, programming etc, which btw will hardly ever be found in a basket of technical analysis books, is more accurately described as data science or quantitative analysis. If you don't believe me, then how many trading job titles do you see called Senior Technical Analyst? Cleary, the industry has made a distinction here.
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