This book is somewhat dated (2011) but it's a good overview.

The Tragedy of the Euro

There were a lot of people in finance that said the Euro currency would never work in the long run. I think Frexit is going to prove them right.

The unknown is whether Frexit causes collateral damage after they reprice their new currency. France's holding of bank and government debt from Italy or w/e might cause haircuts, which triggers more countries to exit and reprice their own currency.

so basically with all these potential european problems coming up, capital will be flowing into the USA

greek debt is mostly owned by french and german banks.

it's not in the ecb program.

the country isn't growing,but the debt is. apparently there is no way to change the trend and greece is doomed to fail.

the imf or whomever can, will lend other money, because why would they let you default on 15b, when you are already indebted for 350b http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece ?

greece is doomed.

_________

france is also doomed, the level of corruption and ignorance is insane. they have 70% tax rate, even if you get 6k€/mo you get subsidy from the government (6k€/mo in france is like 20k€/mo in the bay area). it doesn't make any sense. if you are unemployed you get money from the government 2 years after you get fired and of course you take another job in the mean time but you and your employer decide to not declare that you are employed there.
the violence is ramping.
i don't see how lepen could win the election.
BUT, I can see some news manipulations w fake news and stuff. that would give her a big push.
Right now let's hope that the polls are accurate.
I don't see the francexit even if lepen wins. The best candidate would be macron, imho. Best for the UE and the world.

Italeave, my country, we are totally screwed. politicians are representing a bunch of ******s, and ******s want to be represented by other ******s... so. I hope that 5stars movement doesn't win. I don't say any way we could recover. our ecofin minister is totally unable to do his job and he is just playing for time w bruxcelles.

With all the QE and ecb printing money, not having a recovery is a huge problem.

Also, at some point germany economy will run fast, while italy, greece, portugal will lag behind -> what happens then? germany will want to raise rates, but the other countries couldn't afford and get crushed to the weight of the debt.

On the other and, the EUR is weak and undervalued and europe is making a lot of surplus, while the US is making a lot of deficit.

I don't know.. it is so ****** up, and imho neither central bankers nor top hf managers or top finance guys know what is really going on... they are just praising this super rally in global equities because trump will cut taxes, but there is the ai/robotics that will threaten employment, and the debt isn't particularly low to cut taxes.

if I had to bet on something, I'd go allin on russian equities denominated in rubles. They have sanctions right know, once those are removed, the market will rally huge, and pratically they have 0 downside.

It seems like Yellen is going to cooperate with Trump re: infrastructure/fiscal stimulus and be tepid with raising rates, if that is the case then isn't this run far from over?

Multiple "experts" and economists and much of the press said that Trump's election would crash the stock markets. Instead we've had the longest and smoothest and lowest volatility bull rally in history.

Something to think about the next time an expert says something

Experts are way overrated

Super insightful lol...

Weird day so far, SPY GLD UUP TLT VXX all green.

thoughts on FSLR?

You're a day late

What products with liquid options would you be looking at if you were to have these assumptions?

It's not tradable until something happens/it starts entering trader consciousness. It's a "wait and see, and keep an eye on it" type situation.

I have futures and options on the major european indexes..

I don't have anything on the russia especially because in my country we have tax problems on foreign etf, and the european etf are too illiquid... I would watch RSX, and RUSL but it's leveraged. Also, I didn't look at the prices in a while, it isn't the easy trade I imagined, but I see more room for the upside, especially in the long term.

right now, I'd buy French equities, I think the fear is overblown and nothing will really happen, not in 2017-18

I just want to know if ER changed something. right now the movement in pre-market is silly.

going all in on evil with some RUSL bought on the dip. Still holding my CXW.

Out my MJN 3.37 from like 2.4. Going to rebuy after any tiny dips. Gambling on some NM after news that WEED is partnering with them.

Whats the company name on this one? American ticker? Most of these weed stocks are finished w round two. More short setups w them. If u made money on the long side this last runup, take it and run! Nice call on that weed second run btw.

IMNTR short bias. Needs red on day. You know the economy is doing damn well when transportation and trucking logistics stocks like RLGT keep breaking out.

MNTR rather

OK, I'm short TSLA stock with a 6% stop and also have a straddle tilted towards big miss now and over the next month with a 305 call bailout in case I completely whiff on this read... Fingers crossed that Elon craps the bed or announces a big fundraise for Model 3 production.

Started a position in L Brands today before ER. They've already kitchen sink'd their guidance & while the technicals look ugly, it can be argued that it is putting in a double bottom below $60 plus there is a substantial gap to fill towards VWAP on multiple time frames. Like the descending wedge forming since last ER as well.

They've renamed themselves Cronos aka Pharmacan Capital (TSX Venture stock ticker MJN). Huge indecision in the stock today after a couple weeks of straight green. May not be available to Americans. I'd feel guilty if you guys weren't making millions off stuff like OWCP that I can't access.

I agree that weed stocks look iffy in the short term. Aphria may continue to rise in anticipation of it hitting the TSX soon. Some of the micros look decent for plays including Namaste (N) and Revive (RVV).

Ouch, this is what can happen when you try to bottom fish names in downtrends esp when the market around it is scorching. Ignored my broader feelings about B&M retail to make this play, will wait for the call and likely dump it rather than add. Have to remember to not fight longer term trends esp when it's a clear direction.

I hope the lesson was no more expensive than it needed to be for you to not forget it.

...

*shrug I lost like 40% on a stock over the past two days eating up the entirety of my smarter choices. I didn't want to post the ticker because it was gambling and the fact I'm comfy to share the rest was probably a huge warning sign to stay away. This can be a lifelong battle so every lesson is worth it.

I don't know where you saw a double bottom.
It clearly traded and closed lower on multiple days than it did last May.