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Old 02-15-2017, 07:38 PM   #376
Jupiter0
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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oh and Jupes I think you were right about PLG
Keep an eye on GMO to
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Old 02-16-2017, 04:03 PM   #377
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

How we doing boys?
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Old 02-16-2017, 04:29 PM   #378
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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How we doing boys?
wishing i got filled on dks and trip puts i was bidding on yesterday .
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Old 02-16-2017, 04:33 PM   #379
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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wishing i got filled on dks and trip puts i was bidding on yesterday .
Been banging the table as much as I can for the last couple months, even more puts added today. Itm sweep isn't exactly bullish.
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Old 02-16-2017, 05:58 PM   #380
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

hating myself for covering half my DKS short yesterday
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Old 02-16-2017, 06:12 PM   #381
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Got a few WY calls today
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Old 02-16-2017, 07:10 PM   #382
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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hating myself for covering half my DKS short yesterday
Nice Trades stinkypete,ASAP17,and MyrnaFTW

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Old 02-16-2017, 07:38 PM   #383
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Got a few WY calls today
What expiry/strike/price and why?
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Old 02-16-2017, 09:08 PM   #384
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

VGZ pretty flag forming here. Long bias on nhod.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:43 AM   #385
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I'm not a "trader" like you guys and I don't short but it seems like all the shippers are a great short today. Their rises are off of TOPS sympathy and should go back down fast.

hmm and MJN.V popped off. The rise has been hard and fast so I can't promise much support but considering how it just brushed aside a ~5% dilution I think it's going strong. I know you guys hate the penny stocks so sorry for cluttering up the thread but I'd feel weird not mentioning it after all the research I've done on em.

Last edited by DoctorZangief; 02-17-2017 at 10:52 AM.
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Old 02-17-2017, 11:53 AM   #386
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Not sure there is a trade in here but worth noting implied volatility exploded this week in few of the bigger food staples names. Street betting some combination of GIS, K, HSY, MDLZ, KHC is going to be happening soon, anyone in on any of these/have thoughts?
UN is an interesting (surprising?) play to make from KHC/3G given how much of their business isn't food products. CL seeing a nice bounce on speculation that maybe an alternative acquisition that makes more sense for UN. All of these names continue to see massive paper come in & not much selling in the options market even for the ones in the red today. Could see more deals if/when this eventually gets announced.
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Old 02-17-2017, 02:10 PM   #387
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Dumb criminal award of the day: http://www.bizjournals.com/twincitie...et-stores.html

Don't know what's dumber: the actual idea of using homemade bombs to manipulate a financial market or the fact that he planned to "buy cheap stock in the company before a price rebound" versus using puts.
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Old 02-17-2017, 02:35 PM   #388
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Don't know what's dumber: the actual idea of using homemade bombs to manipulate a financial market or the fact that he planned to "buy cheap stock in the company before a price rebound" versus using puts.
buying puts for a high % of your net worth when you don't trade a lot of options would be about the dumbest thing you could do
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:37 PM   #389
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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What expiry/strike/price and why?
Just March 3rd 35s for now. Playing people being behind lumber prices and it continuing to climb. Still doing more research on it. Looking at julys too.
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Old 02-18-2017, 03:40 PM   #390
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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buying puts for a high % of your net worth when you don't trade a lot of options would be about the dumbest thing you could do
Dumber than actual plan itself?!?
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Old 02-18-2017, 04:24 PM   #391
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Dumber than actual plan itself?!?
imo losing a lot of money seems better than bombing a target
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Old 02-19-2017, 02:30 AM   #392
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Interesting article on Greece. This is what tanked the markets a couple of times over the past few years. The situation has gone into the background as the bailout money has kept them afloat for a while, but it's slowly rearing its head again. With French elections as well I expect this will be a tumultuous year in Europe.

Lenders demand austerity amidst Greek bailout talks

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The country’s epic struggle to avert bankruptcy should have been settled when Athens received €110bn in aid – the biggest financial rescue programme in global history – from the EU and International Monetary Fund in May 2010. Instead, three bailouts later, it is still wrangling over the terms of the latest €86bn emergency loan package, with lenders also at loggerheads and diplomats no longer talking of a can, but rather a bomb, being kicked down the road. Default looms if a €7.4bn debt repayment – money owed mostly to the European Central Bank – is not honoured in July.
This will be a market mover in 2017 for sure. Worth keeping an eye on.
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Old 02-19-2017, 08:22 AM   #393
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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This will be a market mover in 2017 for sure. Worth keeping an eye on.
TS, do you think due to political pressures (to the EU, and saving what they can of it), the urgency to "fix Greece" comes to the forefront?
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Old 02-19-2017, 05:16 PM   #394
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Don't forget elections in Germany. So let's hope for some volatility
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Old 02-19-2017, 05:33 PM   #395
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

market shook off brexit and didnt even care about italexit, i dunno what it's gonna take to really get things moving. you see random stuff in french bonds but idk where else. past 18 months has taught me to just assume anything that can be anticipated in the horizon isn't gonna do any real damage. we're on round 3 of greek stuff, they may as well declare busto and let the market not care about that one either. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Old 02-19-2017, 05:47 PM   #396
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

i think the euro area conflict that potentially causes market volatility in 2017 is russia/ukraine conflict escalation.

one thing that may have been coincidental (but may not have been) was russian syria tensions coming and going with opec decisionmaking. opec continues to not cut, russia continues to bomb syria. opec starts cutting, russia eases on bombing.

putin goes into the trump presidency thinking he has a friend to help deal with syria and ukraine and drop the sanctions. now trump's administration has to take a tougher stance on russia.

would not be surprised at all if russia antagonizes the west and does something involving ukraine to force trump's hand (and maybe we get a better read if that intelligence report on trump/golden showers/rosneft has any weight). it just seems like standard russian operating procedure. some eastern european country is gonna get poked.
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Old 02-19-2017, 05:56 PM   #397
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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market shook off brexit and didnt even care about italexit, i dunno what it's gonna take to really get things moving. you see random stuff in french bonds but idk where else. past 18 months has taught me to just assume anything that can be anticipated in the horizon isn't gonna do any real damage. we're on round 3 of greek stuff, they may as well declare busto and let the market not care about that one either. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Brexit was a non-event - it wasn't instant (years in the rollout), nothing was changing immediately, no systemic risk.

The Greek debt crisis involves hundreds of billion in debt held by various lenders across Europe. It's coming up to half a trillion dollars that they could default on - and that's just government debt. This is enough to cascade down the banking system and private lending system, triggering liquidity freezes and counterparty risk. Not to mention, it would involve exit from the euro currency area, which would send shock waves through the currency and financial markets.

So it's a crisis. It's not comparable to Brexit. How it will play out, I don't know, but there seems to be no solution in sight. Debt is getting larger and Greece is going deeper and deeper into a hole. They can't even pay interest. Their society is broken and corrupt and lazy, yet they share the same common currency with Germany. So they will default and exit eventually, it's just a question of when.
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Old 02-19-2017, 06:00 PM   #398
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

to what extent is the financial system levered re: greek debt? is there an article anywhere that can better illustrate this?

this is not something i've done a lot of homework on, but my understanding was after the tspiras/varoufakis round that so much of it was priced in that, had the default happened, there would not have been panic. that summer was super troll-y in market moves off of greek news. greek trades were pretty exhausting save one really fun day of volatility.
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Old 02-19-2017, 06:02 PM   #399
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

why does a greek exit from the euro currency matter? i would assume the debt is 50x more important. seems like a country like france or italy would have to abandon the euro for the currency to really start ****ting the bed
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:26 AM   #400
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Clayton;51746621[B
]why does a greek exit from the euro currency matter?[/B] i would assume the debt is 50x more important. seems like a country like france or italy would have to abandon the euro for the currency to really start ****ting the bed
Opens the door for others to follow
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