IMO, a lot of PBM pain is already priced in especially for CVS after the Baird downgrade / Friar Levitt report. The conference call obv will be key for you as negative guidance on PBM margins could send CVS down.

With that said some of this fat has to get cut (unless the medical-industrial complex has gotten to the President-he did back down the tough talk after meeting with Pharma heads), the community oncology paper is by a lobby group so obv biased against PBMs but many points are true IMO

http://www.americanhealthpolicy.org/..._Black_Box.pdf

https://www.communityoncology.org/20...ore-for-drugs/

I understand the methodology is imperfect, but how else would you quantify this? It's not like you can introduce a futures or options market for it. Second, its performance should be judged on a relative basis, i.e. how well it responds to economic/political changes and with what magnitudes, and it appeared to react well to recent events, e.g. election, Brexit.

If anything the drug companies are pointing the finger at the PBMs and throwing them under the bus. I think the downside to their margins is underestimated as they add very little value to the industry as a whole.

Silly question, but relevant to my life right now:

I was very happy to get my trading account to about 105k as of 12/31/16. Beers were had with my wife to celebrate (we're not rich). I had a micro cap blow up and as of the close of market today it's 195k and I've been selling like crazy the past week or so to lock in gains. My dilemma: move to a nicer house and use 100k or keep pursuing the trading with all of it? I swear this is not a humble brag. It is a tough decision. I'm having a hard time with the real world stuff I could have versus really trying to perfect my trading and come out even farther ahead 2-3 years down the road. My current house is njce, but my commute sucks (1 hour + each way). I could use some guidance. 1st world problems, yada yada...


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Also: I have a good job and could afford a mortgage on a place about 3x as nice as I have now after we made a down payment with some of this money.


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The odds that you're a trading genius who's going to make substantially more money is very low. This is just a fact. Plan your finances accordingly.

Congrats on your success!

P.S. Another comment: If you have a "good job" but $100K is really meaningful to you, you probably can't afford a big jump in your mortgage, all possibilities considered. A third option is to move to a much nicer house but rent it. That way you're not locked in, have the nicer house, and can still trade with all of your money. That seems to be a perfect solution to your dilemma if you can be a little flexible in your living arrangements/not owning.

Thanks for the reply. Agreed that I'm no genius, but I've made 15-25% most years which I'm relatively proud of. It's more of one of those "when do you spend the money" questions. I've never considered renting, but that's an idea I will definitely consider.

Btw, the stock was ACFN. I bought a ton when they got a new CEO a little more than a year ago. I knew they weren't going bankrupt, so dove in with both feet at around 10 cents.


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The market has gone up this much every year since 2009. And if you take out your recent huge score, you're probably underperforming badly. Simply being long anything would have gotten you this return.

Don't want to burst your bubble. You may be a good trader. Just want to put it in perspective. The greatest ****** in the world who blindly bought into something picked on a dartboard is up nearly 200% since 2009 - more if he went for small caps. If you're not up far more than that, you have no claim to be anything other than a ******.

Again, don't want to burst your bubble - congrats on your success - but something to keep in mind.

I think your ****** comments are a little overboard. I'm up much much more than 200% over that timeframe. I make more trading per year than my regular job and have moved the majority of my investments to long term retirement-type accounts and that dates back to before the recession. This money was a surprise and although I'm on track for retirement I'm wondering if this is a good time to pull some significant (to me) cash off the table or whether the market looks more attractive over the next couple years.


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So why did you claim you're making 15-25% per year, which is in line with the market? Now you claim to be making far more than 15-25% per year?
This makes zero sense. You say you have a "good job" that would allow a more expensive mortgage. You now claim you make more trading per year than this good job.
So you claim to be making at least $70K/year trading for various years + the same from your job. Despite that, pulling out $100K to put down on a house is a "tough decision" for you.

Hah? That makes zero sense. Nor does this:

If you're making at least $70K/year and you're claiming you're making 15-25% "most years" trading, you must have at least a $500K bankroll. Or else you're making far more than 15-25% or so a year. So why is the $100K a hard decision? And why are you celebrating having a trading account at $105K at the end of the year when you claim to make nearly that much trading every year?

You're crushing the market according to your claims, yet you don't know what makes a market attractive or not?

My retirement account is much larger than my trading account. And I'd love to hear from someone else, thanks.


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Dude you got caught out in a lie. Your "humblebrag" backfired. You are not a winning trader - you got lucky on a big score on a micro stock and now you have $100K which is monster score for you, and you're not sure whether to keep trading or use the money.

That much is very obvious. You should tell the truth - you'll get far better advice.

Given the above, obviously don't keep trading. And you know this, or you wouldn't be asking. Who the **** make 100+% a year for years (which is what is implied you're making in your trading account given your numbers) and wants to give it up? If you're more than doubling your income from your "good job" - which is what you're claiming - and you're struggling for money (given that $100K deposit is a big deal for you despite a "good job" and trading income which more than doubles that) - then of course don't give up trading.

But we both know you don't make that trading. So it's an easy call - give up the trading.

Be honest...that way you'll get much better advice.

Not sure why you're still pouring on the hate, but I can rest easy and be done with this exchange. I don't need to defend anything I've said here. Have a good evening.


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Hate? I'm the only one giving you good advice. You should be grateful...

If you're just here for a brag, I apologize, perhaps I misread your intent. But if you're seriously asking for advice, I'm doing you a huge favor here...

Given there are probably a half dozen other threads where the root question would be more relevant, this seems more like an outright brag than the humblebrag you claim it not to be.

There's a ton of additional info necessary for someone to offer analysis/advice on this home upgrade question, and the fact that you failed to provide even basic situational details when seeking this advice leads me to agree with tooth's estimation of your ability as an analytic.

So upgrade the house, tie up the equity in the illiquid asset so you don't dust off the nestegg. Find comfort in timing this decision with an overheated market pushing new highs.

I guess I just posed the question here because this is the thread I follow in BFI. I'm certainly not trying to brag. I was just surprised by a trade that went much better than I thought it would.


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Sounds like I should just go away, so I will. Best of luck to all of you.


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Why go away? It's nothing personal. Believe it or not but we're trying to help. Congrats on making a big score. I hope you enjoy the money whatever you do with it.

There's definitely better threads for this but

The market has had a long bull run and run up nicely with trumps election. The upside being trump outperforms the optimism. It seems like unless you can competently navigate different market conditions you are probably better off withdrawing money and trading a smaller account. Being bullish in recent times has paid well but thats not going to be the case forever

Popcorn.gif

It sounds like you dumped a big chunk of your account on a microcap and got very lucky. So based on that, I think the obvious thing to do is cash out the winnings before you lose it. I associate the term trading with consistent, and reasonably sized winnings. If you were a a trader, you wouldn't be asking.

DoomBugle:

My advice:

- don't scale up your expenses by buying a big house
- don't scale up your trading/speculation; consider scaling it down
- invest and keep saving

+1

Low content alert:

Anyone ever see a yearly chart like Twitter before? Haven't been at this THAT long, but that is the weirdest chart I've seen in a while. Hope nobody got snagged in those earnings.

I just pulled it up to see. Just basically sideways chop. One year ago it closed at 14.40 so at around 16.80 its up about 16.5% year over year. I have done worse But it just seems directionless to me with a fairly wide range (13.73 to 25.30). Fade the extremes and print cash??????????

I'm just not used to the chop being so frequent. Like saw teeth or something.