I like a VRX short here at 19.68. I know I know, it dropped 10% already, party's over go home.

I've seen enough of these dead-cat-bounces tumble hard in one day to where I shy away from entering to see it follow through to its new lows within 100 days.

Is anyone interested in a trading profit bet vs me? Tooth v ASAP is obviously done for and not happening. Was really waiting for the prop bets on that. I want to test my skills vs the 2p2 community at large.

Looking to risk 1-10k vs most takers. I reserve the right to refuse a couple people (ie: ahnuld, jb, ibavly, jupiter0, BCI23). Feel like it would be fun for us as a whole and i'm almost certainly losing but I'm not sure if we want "fun" in here or just trading discussion. I'm pretty depressed and this gives me something to focus on other than my personal life, and hopefully entertainment for the community at large. We can work out details but just wondering if anyone is interested.

Would love to go head to head against Clayton, brianmick, Tooth, and stinkypete particularly.

Would be great to be able to see different peoples' investment choices and styles, with there being so many different ways to do things like play poker and invest There's all those PG&C threads for poker, but none for the investing section.

People may be especially interested in following the challenge if some of the portfolios include some crypto?


Can understand if people aren't eager to share investment details and stuff like that though.

I'm bearish the major crypto's so if you take the bet you've already got an edge knowing that I won't be invested in cryptocurrency

Actually hoping we'd gear it more towards the equity/options market but i'm open to w/e

Oh - would only be interesting in the rail

But hopefully others may be interested in participating?

Yeah tough to do with trading since you have to be way more secretive with information. Kind of a dynamic that isn't that big of an issue in poker. A prop bet is doable with more scalable, slower strategies but it won't be nearly as interesting of sweat watching people make value picks.

lol. jb not included?

I think it would be fun to do a year long stock picking competition open to anybody. Have a thread, everybody picks 5 to 10 stocks. Buy and hold. No trading. No penny stocks(under say $3), dividends count. No bets just for fun unless theres side betting. Somebody can keep everybodys picks in an excel. Maybe we could have a deadline of first or second week of Jan and it goes through all of 2018.

That would be kind of fun, but buy and hold isn't something that I'd do.

and it would be a weird sort of thing when we are in a trading thread

Yeah it would be just for fun though. Anybody could do the contest. It will bring out a lot of lurkers. If anybody else is interested we could work out some of the specifics some here. I'll just start a new thread soon. I'm not sure whether 5 or 10 stocks is best. And minimum stock price. I'm thinking 3 or 4.

longing over a year is something I am utterly uninterested in

10k starting stack in a paper account for a steak dinner would be maybe fun, I guess.

I'd be happy to participate if you start a thread for this. Think it may bring out some really interesting picks.

Needham is out with this this morning.
This is a big deal for its long term valuation, as well as the confirmation of net neutrality repeal (expected, but still an event). Over the next couple of years this means substantial negative news and events for NFLX. Excellent short. Whether funds will have the sense to exit and take their profits, or will hold like they did with Valeant and Enron, remains to be seen; news reactions seem near dead in the current market.

Disney as also indicated their intention to heavily subsidize these services (cheaper than Netflix) and to bid for lots of content. It's just a huge amount of negatives for an already unprofitable Netflix.

I'm pretty sure you have been negative on Netflix for a significant portion of its uptrend. Until that uptrend is broken it there is no reason to short it. Once it does break it may very well be an excellent short. It has been an excellent short a few times in its short tenure. If it is an excellent short you can forgo that first 15-20% to be sure. Otherwise it could just keep trending up until you are out of shorting bullets. Netflix has a wonderful business model with a subscription base that rarely cancels because it has become a core feature of most peoples lives. They even recently raised fees without a blink.

This has been a public service announcement

Ah, the technical astrologer arrives. "Uptrend broken" and all that stupidity. I've called Netflix short a number of times over the years while in an "uptrend" which then mmediately turned. Only been wrong once - at $140. Didn't post it here but did elsewhere.

Your fundamental points are reasonable. And I agree it could have a few good quarters left until the Disney stuff starts to bite a year from now.

Still. The news is bad and if weren't in a market where news is mostly ignored on tech, this would be ripe for a correction.

Here's the thing though. Netflix is worth $80 billion, half of Disney. Disney is a diversified behemoth that pulls in $60 billion/year and $10 billion profit. Netflix pulls in $10 billion in revenue and $0 profit.

There just isn't much room to run here. You're not going to go -200% if you short it here. It might move against you a little but that's all.

Trends are important. I remember you calling for the end of Netflix when Amazon Prime offered a $10 a month streaming option. Of course Amazon Prime itself is only $99 a year The monthly streaming option was stupidity and had no effect on Netflix as the stock has screamed higher since then. Waiting for it to break through some reasonable support level or moving average only makes common sense. Netflix is up about 5 bucks a share since you warned of impending doom just yesterday. The only way to reasonably short it right now is to buy long dated OTM puts that you don't mind losing on and waiting for lightning to strike. Who knows? Maybe the bottom falls out and it scores.

I am neither long or short Netflix.

How can anyone be long when they make no money and a competitor is coming at their throat? 90% of their catalog is trash and every media company is now producing their own original content. Bye bye Netflix.

Puts are the stupidest way to play this given the uncertainty of the time frame.

I have no idea what you're talking about with $5 higher. It's exactly where it was yesterday in a market that just went through all time highs.

The point is, it's been valued as a clear-sky rapidly growing monopoly, with a lot of optimism on top of even that. Now with such a strong competitor on every front signalling their clear intention, including large pricing subsidy, entering the market in a big way, the landscape has changed and we have new information.

There's nothing I'd buy over Netflix right now for streaming content. But I'd drop Netflix in a heartbeat for cheaper Disney with far better titles. Netflix is pretty crappy as a content experience. It's just better than the poor alternatives.

Tooth, waiting for something to start moving the way you think it will is a good idea.

What's nflx p/e, 200?

competition could be a serious blow to companies that have a ton of growth priced in. seems a lot different than amzn competing with wmt and cost since they actually make money

i think the time to sell anything is after tax reform gets passed

You make a claim here, but it doesn't mean anything. Here's what does mean something:

If I wait for something to start the way you think it willl before entering, my EV is _______ higher than if I enter without considering that.

What is _______? Since you say it is a "good idea", you should be able to give a rough range of numbers?

I'd need to know your specific trading system before I could possibly show it works for your specific trading system. However, it seems that if you bother to look for trend and momentum studies, you will find that they exist.