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2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

11-15-2017 , 07:21 PM
11-15-2017 , 11:56 PM
11-16-2017 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
oh believe me, i'm one of the biggest haters of TA you will meet (which I think is analogous to the tweet i posted), I just thought it was an interesting sample size
It wasn't a critique of TA, rather bad/misleading statistics. If you do enough data-mining, you'll find all sorts of "hasn't happened in x years" types of things.
11-16-2017 , 04:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
What selloff?

As an aside, people have truly forgotten what a selloff really looks like imo.
11-16-2017 , 11:23 AM
Trying 2-3 day trade on ULI.V from 41 cents. Whole lithium sector sold off like mad for a few days, that one being the most oversold (after being the most frothy). Wouldn't mind selling something around 55 cents.

Weed sell-off worth watching. Curious how many days it can last.
11-16-2017 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Guys ignore the analyst and media created AMZN vs WMT battle. Absolutely they compete and WMT has been lagging AMZN on a multi year timeline but if you look at the chart from the past year of trading, there actually is a pretty strong correlation between the two. They both can succeed/fail, it's not an either/or.

FCF and profitability matter for AMZN, wapbabalubop? Guess I missed when that changed from the last 20 years.
Both basically at ATHs this morning (nice breakthrough of that double top in WMT), seems like TGT is the one being disrupted (although the numbers for their quarter weren't bad, guidance was a huge range for the holiday quarter).
11-16-2017 , 12:50 PM
Anybody know what time the ITC TiVo ruling is being released?
11-21-2017 , 11:05 AM
S&P 500, Nasdaq, S&P Mid Cap, Russell 2000, MSCI World ATHs this morning. Heh heh.
11-21-2017 , 12:06 PM
yeah bonds, oil, and gold up also

any thoughts on why?
11-21-2017 , 12:09 PM
greatest market of all time, sometimes it makes me question why am i even working a real job.
11-21-2017 , 12:15 PM
I'm sure glad we were all told to dump SPY @$243-4 and not worry about being too early to that call LMAO.
11-21-2017 , 03:17 PM
ASAP, just out of curiosity do you have any long term holds that you like or are you strictly short term trading?
11-21-2017 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
S&P 500, Nasdaq, S&P Mid Cap, Russell 2000, MSCI World ATHs this morning. Heh heh.
Asia is crushing it. My Emerging Asia fund FSEAX and Vietnam VNM are running vertical now. I know you were bullish on FXI a long time ago too. sick moves....
11-21-2017 , 11:19 PM
Looking through trades in an option chain today and I saw a large chunk of calls that were sold into the bid. Generally a large increase in open interest in calls would be a mild bullish indicator, but the market maker is simultaneously selling short the stock to mitigate the risk of holding the calls, right? And that's obviously a bearish move to sell calls into the bid.. so order flow by side is really what's important if you're using it as an indicator?
11-21-2017 , 11:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
Looking through trades in an option chain today and I saw a large chunk of calls that were sold into the bid. Generally a large increase in open interest in calls would be a mild bullish indicator, but the market maker is simultaneously selling short the stock to mitigate the risk of holding the calls, right? And that's obviously a bearish move to sell calls into the bid.. so order flow by side is really what's important if you're using it as an indicator?
Could be a fish selling covered calls.
11-22-2017 , 12:47 AM
Yeah it could be, but I thought the whole point of it being a "general indicator" was that it tends to lend itself, on average over a large sample, in the direction of the executed trade. What are we basing our speculation that it might be a fish on?
11-22-2017 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
Yeah it could be, but I thought the whole point of it being a "general indicator" was that it tends to lend itself, on average over a large sample, in the direction of the executed trade. What are we basing our speculation that it might be a fish on?
You're not giving much context
11-22-2017 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
Yeah it could be, but I thought the whole point of it being a "general indicator" was that it tends to lend itself, on average over a large sample, in the direction of the executed trade. What are we basing our speculation that it might be a fish on?
I guess you can use total OI to see which way the speculative traders are biased but I'm not sure how actionable it is.

One thing I do with options tape is use it to figure out who is moving the stock. If a stock I'm following spikes lower and I can't find any news, but I see a bunch of puts bought/calls sold all at one time, it was probably just one option trader that created that move.

Very different if there's repeated volume in the options, but if it's just one print, or a few prints over the course of 5 seconds, or one order you can see cancelling and coming back higher, it's probably just one guy meaning there probably isn't any news out.
11-22-2017 , 12:18 PM
Agreed, I've never found any value in looking at individual large option buys. Between hedging, profiting from selling covered calls, rich donks (there are plenty), the signal is so weak as to be worthless. Alpha comes from other places than reading meaning into big individual options trades.
11-22-2017 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
Looking through trades in an option chain today and I saw a large chunk of calls that were sold into the bid. Generally a large increase in open interest in calls would be a mild bullish indicator, but the market maker is simultaneously selling short the stock to mitigate the risk of holding the calls, right? And that's obviously a bearish move to sell calls into the bid.. so order flow by side is really what's important if you're using it as an indicator?
Ceteris paribus someone selling calls is a bearish signal, like the above posts though be careful how much you read into it. Very situational
11-22-2017 , 01:36 PM
Just curious, what brokers do y'all use? I use TD Ameritrade and just downloaded ThinkorSwim and was wondering if any of y'all use TOS and have any preferences in particular when using it
11-24-2017 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EZX
greatest market of all time, sometimes it makes me question why am i even working a real job.
Get a better job?
11-24-2017 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Could be a fish selling covered calls.
Why is selling covered calls fishy? You're probably a fish for not covering at least a portion of your position.
11-24-2017 , 02:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Why is selling covered calls fishy? You're probably a fish for not covering at least a portion of your position.


Fishy might be the wrong word, but if it's a pm with a long term hold that is rolling covered calls it's not a bearish signal at all and may be slightly bullish so you need to be careful trying to read anything into call selling
11-24-2017 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stephenkf1993
Just curious, what brokers do y'all use? I use TD Ameritrade and just downloaded ThinkorSwim and was wondering if any of y'all use TOS and have any preferences in particular when using it
Interactive Brokers are the best by far for a regular traders or investor for fees, capabilities, market access and speed, etc. It's not even close.

If that's not an option, it's really a matter of what interface you like and what fee structures fit best with how you trade.

      
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