We had some TTD mentions earlier, anyone have opinions on what happened yesterday? They crushed earnings, next quarter estimates slightly less than expected, stock tanks 15%

Haven't been following it too closely and am not a shareholder, but as far as I know nothing has really changed as far as the long term story: Market leader in a rapidly growing market, good long term prospects. Some turbulence along the way is to be expected.

Also I think given the price action on the last two earnings releases, there was a lot of speculative money hoping for another big bounce and they were pricing in perfection. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but this was probably a pretty high percentage fade.

Got snap at ~$14, going long baby!!! Lets gamboooool

anyone have an opinion on HYG or JNK? interesting move

I think however overpriced equities are at the moment, bonds are even more overpriced.

hey rafiki, you said you had a position in THCX before, i was wondering how far you see it running up based on a quebec deal or any other information you might have.

What makes you think bonds are overpriced, especially "more" overpriced?

SQ almost closed at 40.... buying the dips all year long...

Ya still sitting on THCX a second time around from 2.20's. Going to be trying some of their products over the coming months. Their big issue right now is they don't produce a ton of anything compared to the big 3-4. They're just scaling now. I'll write investor relations to ask them when the new green house will be finished. Luckily they can get a harvest in... call it 2 months on the high end. So if they were done building in March (assuming they get their roof up before the snow) they could be there to bid on Quebec. Gotta think they're working on their strains now to hit the ground running.

I don't think they could get more than 30-40% of Quebec and say 5% of Ontario, but that would already be huge for them. Quebec is 1.5 times Colorado, so maybe with 30% of Quebec and 5% of Ontario they could come in around 900m at retail, maybe 450m at wholesale? If it plays out that way there's no reason for it to not trade above $6.

But to be frank I've been wrong about every valuation on these things along the way. Because in the end during the first few years it's all frothy hype anyway till the purchase orders come in.

Yields are low and interest rates are rising. Companies have rediscovered they love leverage for anything and everything. Sovereign states...don't even get me started there. I don't see what can go wrong.

To be fair, pundits (including J-Yel) have been saying that bonds are overpriced for near 3 years now but based on my anecdotal reading of FinTwitter it seems the smart money has piled into this trade over the past several months.

Equities are at least fairly cheap when measured by FCF, which is a better way to measure the new IaaS/SaaS/PaaS trends.

yeah i allocated some negative deltas in HYG on the 8th. nothing sophisticated about it, just everything looks expensive and it started move counter to what its correlated

i also thought maybe someone might have had an interesting theory of it being a warning sign or something like that

Is GE looking like a solid buy as a long term play? Or maybe wait until it gets dropped from the Dow and then buy after that?

Thanks for your view on them. Would love an update too on that greenhouse if you ever get a response.

I missed some good entry points last week while getting caught up in the other players lol.

Whether yields are low is relative to some time period. The only time yields were higher in the last 2 years was early this year when the bond crash was ending and late 2015.

And by interest rates, I assume you mean Fed Funds? That's going to impact the short end of the yield curve the most.

I don't care about pundits, only the argument.



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Not to be an ass, but to add perspective, there are probably a dozen things you could say about the market every week that "hasn't happened often".

yeah i get the feeling that all of the automatic dip buying has distorted price discovery. it seems like if that stops or fails it could get messy

That statement was an allusion to the Jim Rogers style of punditry, not support of the argument.

I think bonds are a lose/lose proposition right now. Yields are higher now when looking at the last 2 years but that's only after the recent slide.

Risk factors:
- Rising interest rates
- Overleverage
- Rising inflation due to upward wage pressure b/c of a lack of labor in the US.

1 and 3 may not materialize but 2 is a huge concern.

What's everybody make of the health of the bond market right now? Having trouble making sense of the flattening curve while job numbers seem so good. In the past rotating out of stocks and into bonds here might make sense. Just never read about the sort of scenario we're in now. Too green to make sense of it.

Finally getting a lil bearish and it's dead quiet in here? Come on!

So you expect yields to go where they were 4 years ago?

1 and 3 are not an issue. Explain 2. How do you know bonds are more overleverage today?

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I think yield flattening and recession is a case of "correlation is not causation". Rate hike expectations do not result in a parallel shift in the yield curve, so naturally you'll see the yield curve flatten during a tightening cycle. Then the next question is, why don't investors seek similar yields on shorter bonds? Perhaps there's simply enough cash where investors want to "lock" in today's yields for a longer period and there simply hasn't been much inflation, despite the economy being sound. But who knows.

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Ya the front end of the curve certainly looks more inviting right now, that's for sure. Corporate bonds looking better than government too. The curve flattening keeps on going too, more today.

Anyway it's certainly getting a bit choppy out there. I think Tooth may have been right with his prediction. Too bad they didn't do the damn contest!

oh believe me, i'm one of the biggest haters of TA you will meet (which I think is analogous to the tweet i posted), I just thought it was an interesting sample size

i think the environment is so unique that everyone is fairly green to it

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re: the equities space, it's getting rather messy in japan and europe. there was a nice little selloff when the wisconsin governor said he was a no on the tax plan, and i hoped that the trump speech would be interesting but it was a nothing burger.

i've been asleep at the keyboard for the better part of 2 months so i'd be psyched if things actually started perking up.