very early but saudi maybe be experiencing/suppressing a coup this weekend, keep in mind before dealing in energy stuff sunday/monday

Is it not sort of the opposite?

If Iran, Yemen, Saudi and all these players are getting their jimmies riled up, all I wanna do is be trading energy.

you misunderstand me sorry, i'm just saying be mindful of it is all. easy to see some huge move and not know whatever this news is and get wrecked.

at first i thought it was just more houthi stuff, but now with all of these arrests it looks weird.

Yeah Lebanon situation interesting also. Not so much for this week as a chess piece down the line.

looking less like a coup and more like the crown prince just going HAM

massive purge. 10ish members of royal family, 10ish princes, some sons of the old king, every head of the major tv networks, head of the national guard, whew

actually now that i mention it, it looks like a failed coup

Jesus. This is crazy. Is this going to turn into something bigger?

Meh. It will take more than that, but the foundation for 5-6 years of raging civil war down there (across multiple borders) is certainly there. Then if other countries get caught backing one side or the other, that's another story.

Houthi rebels fired a ballistic missle at the Saudis. Rebels have ballistic missles? Since when? I thought they had Molotov cocktails and rocks.

Man, they must have stepped up their game. What the ****.

Wil the Houthies are armed by Iran. I'm not even sure what the list of countries is now where Iran isn't trying to leverage power/influence down there.

Yeah. Middle East is nuts. Saudis are reforming and people are launching missles at them.

Whole world is going to crap. Stop calling me Wil.

Can't stop calling you Wil

So curious what's gonna start happening with oil if the dots just keep connecting and **** gets real.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8039226.html

I will definitely be tuned in for the open in about an hour. No idea what it will do. In the past this would be a surefire spike up. But now? So much depends on OPEC struggling to keep prices up for Saudi Aramco that it might sell off since they might just pump away? Then again maybe this is all part of a plot to get it up? I wouldn't be surprised either way whatever it does.

I just hope we can get the expected volatility.

Crude opens with a yawn. Up about 25 cents. We'll keep watching to see what develops

I'd much rather it not gap Monday tbh. I think this news is small right now. But in many ways it's indicative of the big problem that was created by the removal of Hussein in Iraq (and the withdrawal of the main USA troop base). We've been building towards this power imbalance controlled by Iran for a long time now. Tough to say when it gets really volatile. But to me the combo of the amount of net shorts in oil plus this sets up an interesting set of trades somewhere. Just don't know if the sustained rally in oil will cool before the geopolitical risk comes to the rescue.

So curious if/when Israel decides it has to do something too.

yeah markets gave this a big ol yawn, only thing to take away from it i guess is the future tail risk of a war between saudis and iran but frankly it's looking like we're gonna get more of the same vix 8 markets until tax plan fails or something

Is it possible with the ARAMCO ipo coming up, the Saudis might want to manufacture some manageable conflict to get the barrel up (or even just keep it flat now)? Or is that too crazy? With a market cap in the trillions, the motive is ooooobviously there. Ends justify the means?

I think a plot to keep oil up is entirely plausible. I also see this as an opportunity for the rest of OPEC to ignore the current agreement and pump as much as they want.

I really do think it can go either way. CL and HO have been in pretty good uptrends since the summer. RB continues to lag behind and is the only of the 3 not at yearly highs.

took a few TOPS round trip premarket. Deciding what to do with this open. Still a ton of volume piling into these with their tiny floats. Could be another explosive day.

edit: ayight taking 96 cent shares here possibly to the open. loving the volume here...

sold 1.04. Don't see it, maybe buy a big dip somewhere

edit: DCIX is front-running TOPS by 30+ seconds. Seems like a decent way to trade this. Back in TOPS 1.00

All about Aramco with the Suadi's finally ready to pump with both fists.

Well let's see. The people in charge there have no problem killing people/funding nasty groups and ideologies, and now there's trillions of dollars on the line.

IMO floating Aramco is proof that the Saudis think the age of oil is growing to a close in the coming decades. They've always been ultra long term thinkers and this is a chance to get paid trillions of extra dollars before it all goes belly up.

I AM CRUSHING!!!!

and halted. Let's see how much I can preserve from profits

I was referring to the rest of OPEC. If they see the Saudis in disarray they may say screw the current agreement and pump away while the Saudis desperately try to keep prices up.