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Originally Posted by Clayton
market shook off brexit and didnt even care about italexit, i dunno what it's gonna take to really get things moving. you see random stuff in french bonds but idk where else. past 18 months has taught me to just assume anything that can be anticipated in the horizon isn't gonna do any real damage. we're on round 3 of greek stuff, they may as well declare busto and let the market not care about that one either. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Brexit was a non-event - it wasn't instant (years in the rollout), nothing was changing immediately, no systemic risk.
The Greek debt crisis involves hundreds of billion in debt held by various lenders across Europe. It's coming up to half a trillion dollars that they could default on - and that's just government debt. This is enough to cascade down the banking system and private lending system, triggering liquidity freezes and counterparty risk. Not to mention, it would involve exit from the euro currency area, which would send shock waves through the currency and financial markets.
So it's a crisis. It's not comparable to Brexit. How it will play out, I don't know, but there seems to be no solution in sight. Debt is getting larger and Greece is going deeper and deeper into a hole. They can't even pay interest. Their society is broken and corrupt and lazy, yet they share the same common currency with Germany. So they will default and exit eventually, it's just a question of when.