Happy almost new year BFI! New political order globally colliding with year 9 (possibly) of the bull market. What are your favorite ideas for the new year? Seems to be a lot of consensus thinking (once again) and we all know how well that worked in 2016. Good luck & happy hunting!

First. Still on AXPW penny blast

Gonna take a page from jb and try selling naked monthly WMT calls throughout 2017. High risk low reward bridgejumping FTW!

If average expected loss is less than average expected gain, I'm not interested

Big plans for 2017! Happy new year guys.

TAL is a good short here. gonna short some on 70 breakdown

check out VAPE

2017, shave a few us, tinker with deep learning, moar stat arb

gl to all

Happy new year

Obv correction year right? I know it's been said every year but feels like a certainty this year.

what's being corrected?

Currently:
*Short ES, short ES strangles
*Long ZN
*Short IWM
*Short XLF (small)

No way Yellen raises 3x in 2017. If she raises once, it'll be September. If twice, it'll be in June and December.

For future reference, CME fed watch probabilities:

50-75bps (0 hikes)
5.7%

75-100bps (1 hikes)
22.8%

100-125bps (2 hikes)
33.9%

125-150bps (3 hikes)
25.0%

150-175bps (4 hikes)
10.0%

>175bps (5+ hikes)
2.6%

Good ole bell curve.

At this point I think the only interesting question is: is there a cap on rates, and if so where?

They raise once a quarter or less for 25 bps a pop. It just all seems like BS. It will be massaged and managed in lieu of some agenda. But since they can't re predict the outcome contingent upon their actions they may as well spin. A wheel or have a monkey throw darts at a board.

we will keep raising a quarter basis point as long as we're on highs. stock prices matter more than economic data.

I think you are pretty spot on, at least with the first half (2nd half is fair as well IMO).

yeah if stocks keep trending up i don't see how the fed could possibly not raise in march

Fair point, but just given how gradual, delicate and dovish she's been, I don't see her shocking the markets (and her personality) with 3 hikes. I also don't see her raising 3 months after the last hike, and then waiting >6 months for the next hike (e.g. March & December), as that would convey a lack of confidence. So, I guess we're looking at March & September or June & December.

she's been insanely delicate because stocks pre-trump were sorta breakeven for 18 months, and the market reaction 12 months ago was warranted.

also it's basically a mandate at this point that the fed goes out of their way to make their hikes so obvious that the FOMC announcement itself isn't even a trade because it's so priced in. that's really the only risk, to what degree of market confidence in a hike does Yellen typically need. usually its 90%+. i think the mandate has long been "dont surprise anyone" and i'll continue to believe that until we get a new fed chair.

march will be telling, if market says 80% hike then she doesn't hike then I would expect Trump to raise a hissyfit, then we hike in June and depending on how the markets have done the first half of 2016 we either see two hikes (June/Dec, 95% likely) or three hikes (June/Sep/Dec, 5%).

Here's another perspective: The probability of a hike in March rate hike is 20.3% (technically, on or before March). A SPX 3/16/2017 2325C is trading at 0.2100 delta, so the probability the S&P closes >= 2325 on 3/16/2017 is 21%, or nearly the same probability as the rate hike. So, if you assume a 100% correlation between these two binary variables, then we need to S&P close >= 2325 in March to see a March rate hike.

that would be a 3.8% gain in S&P... seems pretty reasonable.

though i feel like a hike on a 3% gain would be more likely than no hike on a 4.6% gain, so maybe there's a trade there? always interesting to look at these numbers in any case

it's been the same talk last year. the moment we see a 5%+ pullback in equities like last january the fed will 'reevaluate'. whole fed agenda is to please equity markets. i guess even if we hike in march or june and equities are flat until summer there'll be talks about stagnation and they will hesitate to hike again. maximum i see is 2 hikes this year, but more likely one.

Not to bring the quality of conversation back down but OGI (Organigram) may be a good spot. They're having a recall because of pesticide use (similar to what happened to MT earlier) which is resulting in an overcorrection. Slightly nuanced by the fact OGI is supposed to be organic and this looks bad.

Dipped down below 2.6 today so I picked some more up.

Obviously I like all of these trades & your thesis on rate hikes. Gl this year man.

AGN up another 3% today, definitely think (at least to start the year) there is a catchup chase that is going to happen in the bigger cap bios.

Hi guys!My name is Vladimir and am a grinder from Bulgaria!Didnt want to start a new thread so I will write in this one.I want to make a transition from poker to Forex Trading and have a few questions.
1-I have heard that there are many similarities between forex and poker-is that true?Do you think as a good/very good poker player that I Will be able to make it on the forex market?
2-Since I understand absolutely nothing,can you recommend me some books or videos you used to get better-not how you learn the rules.
3-Is it necessary to spend much time as when you play poker-I mean I have played like 10 hours a day for many months and I think this is one of the ways to become the best-dunno if the same applience in Forex Trading.
4-Can you trade for like 2-3 hours a day and be free the rest of the day and not care about trading?(think it maybe as stakes in poker-the higher you play the lower hours you can play and make big money).
Thanks very much!
Vlad

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