FYI The 15% rate that has been suggested by Osborne is not due to come in till at least 2020 and that's if he goes ahead with it and if they are still in power. In other words lots of ifs!

GS short working very nicely, tons of puts trading across the board in financials today.

I'm a noob, but to me there would seem a decent chance they will have an improved future outlook on a suggested <15% corp tax. Osborne's words also said < 15% not =15% so could even go lower. But it's a minor benefit compared to the £ falling.

http://www.sage.com/company/investor...Financials.pdf

Sage look like they have a lot of USD denominated debt. Can't really tell from their accounts at first glance how much £ sales they make but it could be a small fraction (they group revenue into Europe/North America/International.

How naive is it to assume without any growth, their revenues will increase by ~14% purely from forex benefits?

Was buying db and cs into the close friday and buying more today.

Bad news upon bad news and in a clear downtrend is all I see. What do you see?

Agreed, was just about to respond. Rates are in a tailspin short term supporting a much longer multi decade trend, even a small recovery doesn't change the damage that is doing to bank profitability esp outside of the US.

Tom, what makes you think you have an edge as a trade here? I guess I sort of understand a longer term long but as a trade (no surprise since I'm virtually on the opposite side of you) I think it's awful. They were lagging significantly during the run last week for a clear reason. What made short today such a great trade.

^^
Don't forget about gold. A PM rally doesn't do the fiat peddlers any favors.

FYI everyone, ES is already down 10 and the Yen is crushing the dollar.

They have record profits due to drop in oil prices. But, when you have profits in airlines, employees go Bernie Sanders and expect raises. Then when oil prices rise they start losing money and chap 11. I think I like DAL better.

What are everyone's general thoughts on Square (SQ)? It seems like a return to $15 is much more likely than going sub $8. They settled the lawsuit before the last quarter came out and that crushed the price but it seems like a healthy prospect going forward. I've always loved the actual product.


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As a trade prob a good short, FCAU as well. Mid-term I like FCAU, and am long, as I think we are more at a SAAR plateau as opposed to a peak and the stock has a decline priced in. I wouldn't be surprised if some big quant firms had a recession/ dropping SAAR short trade on a basket of automobile stocks.

Depression incoming

All trends end and even things in long term "downtrends" have the potential for strong counter trend rallies. Both of these are pretty resoundingly **** on and sentiment is terrible. Personally I like the price action here.

The fact that two people itt hate my trade makes it more likely to be good. I have plenty of edge here because one I think we are at price and sentiment extremes on both stocks and lastly I think we are on the cusp of a nice intermediate term rally in the greater stock market.

Shouldn't have covered ur short bruh!

P.S. also love that people are flipping out over a ~30 pt pullback in the SPX after it just rallied 120pts. Fin twit is on fire right now.

Yeah, I took a loss. But its OK. I was too early, I often am. I think GS position would be up but that my VIX position would be down.

Really, what I should have done was get long gold in the middle of last week.

Anyway, I have a few bearish flys and some puts right now.

It may only be 30pts in the SnP but what I am seeing out there is kinda scary. If banks like DB and CS just keep grinding / crashing lower. USD/JPY is on some kind of push. And ****ing PMs are rallying.

I can't think of much worse than 0% interest rates, a falling stock market and rallying precious metals.

The probability of metals and bonds continuing to rally is slim. It's been discussed many times over, but I'm very long miners and PM's and think both are early into a 2-5 year rally that brings them back to new highs and probably decently higher. I hope they rally to the moon but that doesn't mean I'm going to lose my rationality here because they happen to be, at least silver and bonds, running parabolically. Anything slightly hawkish in the fed minutes today is going to hurt bond bulls or metals bulls that are jumping in late to the game.

Also, things do look bad for stocks as they do near every great buying opportunity. Looking bad or looking good is a terrible way to trade something and a strat destined for failure. One of my reasons for being bullish right now is that the worlds elite has a stake in seeing the markets breakdown and dissolve in the wake of Brexit. Unfortunately, elites or not, the market rarely does what people want it too.

Edit: With all that said it's possible I could be wrong. I just think it is a much higher probability that we end up higher in the S&P a month from now.

I question how much market some of these markets are anymore. I am very confident the PM market is manipulated...just sometimes they lose control IMO.

I am certain, like by definition, the bond market is manipulated.

And it seems, at the very least, that the stock market is indirectly manipulated. In some countries, it is overt.

I do like miners here and think you may well be right about PMs. For my part, I always, 100%, want to see them going lower. Because I know eventually, they will go up. They have to.

Precious metals aren't manipulated because they had a 5 year bear run. It's part of how markets work. They go up, they go down, and sideways. Markets are much to big for one entity to manipulate effectively for a long period of time. Obviously short term manipulations are possible. I'll ask the same question that I ask anyone who says something like that, "If they are so manipulated why trade?". If the financial elites or politicians can control markets why don't they just fall into lock step exactly how they want every time? Central Banks and governments would be right about everything they do and the world would be bright and rosy. No offense, but most of the time when I hear some one crying manipulation it is just someone butt hurt the market isn't trading there way and they are too arrogant to admit their own failings.

Wait, what?

Were you trading silver in the summer of 2011? Look into some of the CFTC cases.

Also, the rehypothecation is crazy. There are too many claims on gold via paper than actual supply of physical.



I want to buy PMs, so I want the prices low...

I don't really care about the dollar value of that position, I want more ounces.

Also, while we are on the subject of market rigging...

L
I
B
O
R
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Do you guys have any thoughts on marijuana stocks in 2016?

GRNH
CGC.VN on the tsx
APH.VN on the tsx

CGC has Canada's ruling party's CFO owning a huge chunk which seems like a sweetheart deal may be coming soon...?

Their is no magic in silver or gold ounces they are only worth what you can trade them for i.e. dollars etc.

back at my desk, still liking this play,, if i want a 4-6 week time frame , which call options would you play?

six diff UK property funds have been frozen today

RBS has about two thirds of their equity in commercial real estate

S&P is green ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

bought some GLd 7/29 131 calls, 2.40-2.49 avg

Yeah. RBS will be fine because it is nationalised (still one of the worst shares to buy in the UK market though). There could be real carnage with the commercial property investment trusts (like F&C commercial property traded on the FTSE 250). Investment trusts over here are allowed to use gearing. Normal funds are not. The normal property funds that have been suspended here will be OK - investors will just suffer a crash. However the trusts could return 0 to investors....If an investment trust cant pay its debts and the value of its holdings suddenly tumble to less than it owes.....it goes bust and shareholders get nothing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...fund-told.html

Noob question maybe, but do do you look at specific miners or just some ETF or... ?