History is going to repeat itself.

We use to pump 10 million bpd. Then the price dropped around 1982. After it hit $25 in today's dollars it stayed there for 20 years until year 2002 or so. During that 20 years us production creeped down from 10 million bpd to 5 million bpd in 2009. Imports were at an actual low in 1982 before the crash at 4 million bpd, this almost went up in a straight line to 10 million bpd in 2005.

1. Expect oil to remain around $25 for a decade.
2. Expect foreign imports to increase.
3. Expect domestic production to slowly drop.

Imagine if you had an oil well in your backyard which you could pump out 20 bbls a day and it cost you $1 to pump them out, or $600 a day profit. Would you continue to pump or stop until the price rises? People even domestically will continue to pump until the costs to pump exceed the price of the oil. Slowly domestic production will drop. Slowly imports will increase. We should lower the minimum wage to increase domestic production.

Shippers will have increased profits.
Airlines will have increased profits.
Virtually every thing should cost less, but all the competitors have the same reductions so profits will remain the same or drop slightly.

BTE (Canadian oil company) ftw in 2016.

That thought has crossed my mind about NXTD, so I have set triggers. Thx for your insight.

https://twitter.com/Nikkorico_/statu...19474688163840

this guy is a good follow. Please understand that buying these kind of stocks is decidedly -EV

lol zerohedge and all that, but this story is really interesting to me. Zerohedge came out and declared that through 2 independent sources they discovered the Dallas FED held secret meetings with several banks instructing them to open up their loan books for FED oversight. They also claim that in those same meetings the banks were instructed to not "force energy bankruptcies" and to demand asset sales instead. The part that's surprising is the FED has actually taken the time to tweet about it to deny the story.

Original story: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ot-force-shale

FED denial: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...llow-questions

I think zerohedge always wants the most sensational scenario to play out obviously, but some of the facts in the first article are really interesting if true.

Newbie question: What is the best online trading platform for a beginner to buy shares? I am interested in just buying a few stocks on the NASDAQ as a long term investment and also oil once I think it's gonna bottom out Am I better off just going over the phone through a broker?

I am living in Ireland fwiw.

I think it's moot anyway because oil has to go up because of the laws of physics and simple mathematics. Not every oil producer is state owned, at at some point these companies will go bankrupt at these prices, soon. This is completely irrespective of the economy & even supply and/or demand.

So plausible deniability. Fed would never say it's "guidance" but not as if they couldn't encourage.

If an oil company goes bankrupt, all its real assets transfer to the senior bond holders. If thus their debt is reduced. If it costs $40 to get the oil out of the ground, then the senior bondholders will probably just shut the properties down until the price recovers.

As for FED delaying bankruptcies, I don't think they can. Once a debt payment is missed then the bond holders can force a bankruptcy. They might be able to pump low interest loans on them.

What the **** are you talking about? It's not like we don't know exactly how much demand there is worldwide, which is not dropping off, but has in fact grown.

Oil is oversupplied. That's all there is too it. If the world uses 95 million barrels and we pump 97 consistently, the price of oil goes very rapidly down and stays there. Iran is now coming online which will add even more to the mix.

Are you someone who sees monsters under the bed? I really don't understand how you're getting WW3 from a low oil price driven by excessive supply. The Saudis themselves signaled this over a year ago. This is driven by deliberate strategies, not anything else.

Why, exactly? I don't understand this reasoning at all. The Saudis could triple the price of oil overnight by saying one single sentence. As could Russia. They're not victims in this, they're the puppet master. I'm just stunned that people can't do the most basic of logical thinking.

Am I missing some high level sarcasm here?

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2016/01...l?spref=tw&m=1

why I'm bullish right now. good read.

Futures surging on China data coming inline not worse, tomorrow could be an epic short squeeze.

^^^ My quick play today is SBUX. I have a long position, but loaded up on Thurs and Friday to position for a big earnings day. With the China data coming in as "not worse", the growth SBUX is forecasting, and the stock battered by a recent brutal market-- I think we may get a huge jump after market.

Another play is NXTD (as I pointed out early). Yes it is below a dollar, but do not confuse as a penny stock in a traditional sense... It is on the exchange and bottomed out as an IPO, but has had great news last week which was capstoned at their partner's conference this weekend. That conference was well received, reached a new audience of investors, and topped of the positive news. In @ .52 & .59, will sell 50% @ $1 and evaluate for other 50% of my position. On the off chance this is a pump & dump I will not be exposed and only stand to make gains with right stop loss. I do however expect to see it climb to $1+ this week.

Gl and may your plays be profitable ones!

Please stop pumping penny stocks on here that have been falling knives for months, thanks.

No sweat... I was only sharing info. I'm not pumping and could careless if you buy. I'm only sharing it as an idea, that has actually made a nice return for me this past week. And based on recent info I think there is still more run.

Not looking to argue, but more for my education... If a stock is traded on the exchange, value of ~$22M, began 1.5yrs ago as an IPO @$4 that is still considered a penny stock because it trades at less than a dollar right now? I was under the impression most of those "penny" stocks are OTC.

Anways... That will be the last time I mention NXTD. I was only trying to give back to the 2p2 community. Cheers.

I did look at his twitter acct. Thank you for sharing. Very interesting

You don't know what a penny stock is but you think this is a great investment/trade that you are "trying to give back to the 2p2 community?" This was trading at $.16/$5m market cap a few weeks ago, listen to jb please & gtfo before you lose your stake. Very definition of a pump & dump/penny stock (which does NOT have to trade OTC/pink sheets).

Out of this turd at $6.44 average for 3% return. Patent news is not that bright on a deeper examination, not worth holding.

out of DAL @ 46.20 ,, took the 1.7 on the stock and 40% on the options..


back to 100% cash

So if someone were to day trade a stock, regardless of which one, that they got a tip on and the stock has decent momentum & weekend news... Couldn't they technically do well in the short run if they are paying attention?

Not mentioning any stock, but it could produce 20%+ the same day it was tipped... Even if it was a penny stock, right? So $10,000 invested in a blue chip, penny stock, or really anything that earns 20% is still $2000 at the end of the day. I would look hard at anything that could churn out 20% rather than mock or be cynical.

Sigh... I did sell 50% of my position, not because you said to gtfo but because it neared my target and I saw the market retracting a bit.

I guess I will hand in my badge as a member of the so called "pump & dump" team. And let ASAP17 run the show and provide solid advice that will lead 2p2/members to ~50% ROI in less than a week.

*drops the f%ckn mic*

as long as they are winner , we welcome all tips,, please dont discourage others from making plays .. +50% returns are hard to come by.

daChimp

We are speaking from experience. I've seen hundreds of very similar situations play out. The crowd is sometimes right in the short term, but longterm, buying low floats is consistently -EV. Here are the past 20 examples I just pulled from my spreadsheets if you want anymore evidence

JRJC
ARRY
ADXS
RWLK
RLOC
EARS
CNIT
INVT
LEI
CBIO
SYPR
GSI
CNAT
COOL
SSN
INVT
RCON
TTNP
BSI
CDRB

Phew... That's where we all misunderstood. I'm not investing, I'm trading. These are fairly quick, max 1 week momentum ride.

I'm only investing in more stable companies: SBUX, NKE, JBLU, AAPL, INTC and LOW are my current long holdings.

I guess I should clarify. I am going to take take risks to reap the rewards. Never trying to time it, just making a plan and sticking to it. There is potential to the company, but I'm not falling in love with hoes either....

Nice trade dachimp, hopefully those plays keep working for you.

I have to say that I enjoy them. I don't go in blindly. I am screening for a certain profile and then I watch... Ride the momentum, then bounce with a decent profit. I was frightened by how fast this climbed... Which is why I posted about it last week, but I stuck with it as the conference was this weekend and sediment was still strong.

Now it's not a penny stock anymore :-p

And I'm fully out, but may consider getting back in if this retraces and factors are still favorable.