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2015 Trading Thread 2015 Trading Thread

10-20-2015 , 06:33 AM
10-20-2015 , 10:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
9am-10am EST gets same results for US stock and bond futures.
If you look at 24 iid random walks, you can make 276 (=24 choose 2) comparisons, or even 23 comparisons if we're just comparing adjacent hour periods. That allows room for finding statistical anomalies. Even 1 test for equal means at 95% confidence is expected to fail here.

I'm not dismissing the findings entirely, but I don't think it's as interesting as most people look at it initially, and certainly not a tradeable finding. That would give pairs trading a whole new meaning!
10-20-2015 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
If you look at 24 iid random walks, you can make 276 (=24 choose 2) comparisons, or even 23 comparisons if we're just comparing adjacent hour periods. That allows room for finding statistical anomalies. Even 1 test for equal means at 95% confidence is expected to fail here.

I'm not dismissing the findings entirely, but I don't think it's as interesting as most people look at it initially, and certainly not a tradeable finding. That would give pairs trading a whole new meaning!
The interesting bit is in showing it to people who don't hold their positions overnight because of reasons.
10-20-2015 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Long Costco calls on this Walmart news, businesses are totally different.
Been crushing it so far this month, closing out most of position (almost a dub) but rolling a small size into next year for potential ER play.

Reads/timing have been strong (lucky?).
10-20-2015 , 01:33 PM
Added to VXX short to get back to original position size.
10-20-2015 , 03:46 PM
covering MON today at a small loss and playing IBKR on the long side for a day or two..

any of you guys playing WTW? crazy run,,

91.16 and 40.79 respectively

Last edited by MyrnaFTW; 10-20-2015 at 03:51 PM.
10-20-2015 , 05:24 PM
Chipotle warning about slowing growth on the call. 600 soon?
10-20-2015 , 11:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StayRational
Can see it better on daily. It's in a trading range now(red lines) that has support at the latest gap up. At range resistance the other day it printed a shooting star candle which in itself is bad(see circle). It also is trying a bearish engulf last couple days. Being up so much it looks overall bearish to me. Watch the action out of the trading range imo.

10-21-2015 , 01:06 AM
I think it could get close to 60. 2 positive catalysts coming up.
10-21-2015 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Been crushing it so far this month, closing out most of position (almost a dub) but rolling a small size into next year for potential ER play
very nice dude. Costco is breaking out. that's crazy. Sick pairs trade still prob short Wally long cost.
10-21-2015 , 11:58 AM
Bill Ackman is having a rough year, jeeze. Continues to accuse HLF of being a Ponzi scheme by rolling/adding puts (+50% YTD) then his favorite company Valeant gets accused of corruption (-25% YTD). Pershing Square YIKES.
10-21-2015 , 12:20 PM
Anyone following VRX? Can we really trust a short seller's report?
10-21-2015 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Bill Ackman is having a rough year, jeeze. Continues to accuse HLF of being a Ponzi scheme by rolling/adding puts (+50% YTD) then his favorite company Valeant gets accused of corruption (-25% YTD). Pershing Square YIKES.
i have been getting little knife cuts like ackman as well.. im def not in sync right now .. the ones i avoid drop big and the ones im placing positions in are going the wrong way for me..

edit that,, ackman is getting killed.. just saw his pharma hold down 25% ,, ive been losing 3-5% here and there
10-21-2015 , 01:05 PM
Yeah, Valeant down over 30% today. I think that's around 1B loss for Ackmans Pershing Square just for the day.
10-21-2015 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Bill Ackman is having a rough year, jeeze. Continues to accuse HLF of being a Ponzi scheme by rolling/adding puts (+50% YTD) then his favorite company Valeant gets accused of corruption (-25% YTD). Pershing Square YIKES.
Hasn't he blown up twice? Not to mention he doesn't even keep his own capital in his funds. Guys a joke.
10-21-2015 , 01:43 PM
The ECB is having a meeting Thursday in Malta. Then a press conference:

webcast

Anything these Yahoos blubber on about of any importance to you Nano-traders?
10-21-2015 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Hasn't he blown up twice? Not to mention he doesn't even keep his own capital in his funds. Guys a joke.
I guess he better be as good at hedging as he claims to be. HLF bet looks especially terrible based on today's news in his real top bet.
10-21-2015 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
The ECB is having a meeting Thursday in Malta. Then a press conference:

webcast

Anything these Yahoos blubber on about of any importance to you Nano-traders?
Fresh euro QE. Don't think it happens.
10-21-2015 , 02:36 PM
bought VRX and IG today, VRX looking like a good trade so far. IG we'll see
10-21-2015 , 02:40 PM
I did too before the halt. Ackman also added 2M shares.
10-21-2015 , 03:03 PM
Very small size but hopping in some Mellanox tech MLNX puts ahead of earnings on a lot of bearish activity.
10-21-2015 , 03:54 PM
ibkr turned out to be a dud , still holding against my rules,, most likely one more day..

did some LVS puts and short at 47 .. hoping they really guide lower.
10-21-2015 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Very small size but hopping in some Mellanox tech MLNX puts ahead of earnings on a lot of bearish activity.
Looks like a beat, weird action after buying how the bottom fell out for a few minutes. Bear trap possibly... It happens.

Last edited by ASAP17; 10-21-2015 at 04:25 PM.
10-21-2015 , 04:36 PM
If you're referring to Citron, the report was little shady and barely confirmed anything. Serious though if the accusations prove to be true.
10-21-2015 , 04:41 PM
Ackman has an enormous ego. Just because he's doubling down doesn't mean he's right.

      
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