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2015 Trading Thread 2015 Trading Thread

09-03-2015 , 09:00 PM
^^^Somebody ban hammer me if I show up on this thread Friday saying I bought NFLX

If NFLX breaks below $99 .... I would guess NFLX will see ~90 before it sees ~100

The weakness in NFLX this week is glaring, still surprising thou, to me anyways.

I am going to look for another $100 to $120 range stock to dabble in.
09-03-2015 , 09:15 PM
Gilead, symbol GILD is around $102

Down about 15% for the month,, biotech weak like everything else

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=656627

Maybe use $99 and change as a stop ???

then rebuy back over $100 if need be

easy peasy pudding pie trade
09-03-2015 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan
Gilead, symbol GILD is around $102

Down about 15% for the month,, biotech weak like everything else

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=656627

Maybe use $99 and change as a stop ???

then rebuy back over $100 if need be

easy peasy pudding pie trade
the process for swing trading is so much more in depth than this. If this is your strategy you should just mail your money in to the casino and save the gas money.
09-03-2015 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
But you also get a different raft of blathering idiots showing up after year's of absence.

Luckily there is a never ending supply.
Yes, this is my feeling as well. Except replace luckily with unfortunately.
09-03-2015 , 10:00 PM
There was a guy here 2-3 years ago who played the 90's to 100's strategy with AMGN.

And I believe he got beaten up pretty good ?

The theory being .... a stock that makes into the $90's will make into the $100's

And a stock that makes it into the $100's, well to the moon it goes

Well it took AMGN months of fighting to make it into the $100's from the $90's and to stay above $100 .

Well, when AMGN finally stuck with $100 plus, it made it all he way to $180

There are a lot of traders and big boys that play the 90's to the 100's strategy.
I believe somewhere I read it has a 70% success rate ?

And the $100's to the moon strategy is popular too.

There is a ton of whole number "decade" like strategy in buying and selling.
09-03-2015 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan
There was a guy here 2-3 years ago who played the 90's to 100's strategy with AMGN.

And I believe he got beaten up pretty good ?

The theory being .... a stock that makes into the $90's will make into the $100's

And a stock that makes it into the $100's, well to the moon it goes
here is everyone's favorite clown on the subject.. notice it was at the end of a bull- typical for him..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19683453
09-03-2015 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by czarczar
the process for swing trading is so much more in depth than this. If this is your strategy you should just mail your money in to the casino and save the gas money.
I try to keep it simple so ASAP17 can follow along
09-03-2015 , 10:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by czarczar
here is everyone's favorite clown on the subject.. notice it was at the end of a bull- typical for him..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19683453
Nice find OP

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19683455

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19683453

Jim Cramer is great at what he does
09-03-2015 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
I've never heard of anyone trading off a "whole numbers" strategy or whatever, but understanding that certain numbers are psychologically significant and incorporating that into your thought process should be, well ... a pretty basic concept to be aware of, I think.
I'd imagine that there are certain significant numbers that influence some traders in there decision on where to place certain stops/buys..and so forth. I don't believe those traders create enough volume there to bend the needle enough to allow the exploitive traders to jam an edge through it.
09-03-2015 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
IMO, part of is that NFLX is like the first expense people cut if they are short on cash. If the economic outlook is poor, if its a balance sheet recession, NFLX will lose subscribers.

Another way to say it is its subscription base is elastic.
This is 100% wrong. Economists predicted many years ago that cell phones were the 1st thing that would be cut for people who are facing life-altering decisions. It was agreed among the "smart" people that cell phones were near the end of the line in order of importance. That turned out to be incorrect.

There is a reason that cable companies fight tooth and nail fro the poorest neighborhoods. The issue here is that people of means think that something like communication or low level entertainment is trivial. That is untrue. For low-income people things like a cell phone or cable TV are the most vital things they have access to.

Logically, you're right. In practice, you couldn't be more wrong.

tldr cell phones/smart phones/internet/cable/cheap entertainment are inelastic. I would bet a significant % of my net worth that people would be willing to cut off their cable service and stick with cheap internet/netflix. Cable + HBO is expensive. Internet + NFLX isn't. You get tons more value for the latter.

Last edited by wil318466; 09-03-2015 at 10:38 PM.
09-03-2015 , 11:00 PM
^^^ Cell phones rule,

Cell phone > Internet > NFLX > Cable amongst the financially struggling

Texting > Voice
09-04-2015 , 12:38 AM
People who are having financial difficulties don't cut their Netflix subscription. They cut cable and subscribe to Netflix instead.

Rand has been a wrong a lot in this thread, especially his bias against long term buy and hold and his insistence on financial industry conspiracy theories.
09-04-2015 , 12:44 AM
If an $80 stock goes to $100, it could go to $120. No ****. Because if it doesn't go to $100 it sure can't go to $120.
09-04-2015 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan

I don't understand the weakness in NFLX thie week, but there's a lot of things in the stock market I don't get.....The intraday price swings of 6,7,8,9 percent are too exhilarating for me.
Netflix is high beta. It essentially mimics the Nasdaq index. These are usually the most volatile. Look at a chart of the Nasdaq vs Netfilx.
09-04-2015 , 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
What credible traders use round #s to trade off of as a thesis? You find one that has an edge doing that please direct all of us there thanks.
I've been trading since 2008 and have seen a lot of charts. I've seen many times on stocks under $12 a share round numbers like $1,$2,$3 etc become important technical levels for resistance and support. $.50 marks on stocks under $3 are equally as key. It doesn't happen all the time either of course. The thing is you can't construct a strategy solely based off this. It has to be in combination with other market signals. This is just my experience with stocks "in play"(like high beta, phase III bio's etc.)

Last edited by Jupiter0; 09-04-2015 at 03:51 AM.
09-04-2015 , 07:00 AM
fyi ....

I bought some GILD pre-market under $101.00

I am hoping it will stay above August 24th low of $100.6

GILD is a quality stock at a bargain basement price.

If it drops below $100, it could quickly bounce up, or I fear $95 is a strong possibility ?

Hoping today's jobs report numbers do not shake, rattle, and roll over the market

With long weekend, today might not be a good day for fishing.
09-04-2015 , 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula72
Well NFLX broke below 100 so let the shenanigans begin!
NFLX is/was below $98 pre-market.

I am glad I got out of this **** alive this week.

I must admit, I am not disciplined enough to screw around with a fast mover like this.

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=672501

I am prone to "Deer in headlights syndrome"

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/how-to...ghts-syndrome/
09-04-2015 , 07:22 AM


This can be me when the **** hits the fan
09-04-2015 , 08:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan
fyi ....

I bought some GILD pre-market under $101.00

I am hoping it will stay above August 24th low of $100.6

GILD is a quality stock at a bargain basement price.

If it drops below $100, it could quickly bounce up, or I fear $95 is a strong possibility ?

Hoping today's jobs report numbers do not shake, rattle, and roll over the market

With long weekend, today might not be a good day for fishing.
I don't get it, are you just buying to flip a coin? What makes you think it's a quality stock at a bargain basement price, just the dollar amount that the stock happens to trade for per share?
09-04-2015 , 08:39 AM
If you *fear* $95 off a $100 GILD, you're doing biotech wrong, and you're certainly doing GILD wrong. The past several Q's GILD has had some epic intraday swings, certainly big enough to shake out tight stops (if you're using one).

As for GILD being a great value, a lot of buy/hold investors would agree with you. But this isn't really the buy/hold thread.
09-04-2015 , 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan


This can be me when the **** hits the fan
You want to hold on as long as you can to maximize the likelihood that you are selling at the bottom.

Then buy back in once everything seems perfectly safe.
09-04-2015 , 10:16 AM
ya rand you're way off thinking $8/month for hours of entertainment is going to be one of the first things cut by consumers. the cheapest entertainment is going to be one of the last things cut.
09-04-2015 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by homeboy604
ya rand you're way off thinking $8/month for hours of entertainment is going to be one of the first things cut by consumers. the cheapest entertainment is going to be one of the last things cut.
People will also cut down on alcohol, just like they always never do.
09-04-2015 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
If you *fear* $95 off a $100 GILD, you're doing biotech wrong, and you're certainly doing GILD wrong.....
This is a legit question below

Generally speaking, how should I be doing large cap biotech and or GILD ?

From a trade or swing trade point of view.

Any perspective, a little, or a lot is appreciated.
09-04-2015 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bware
I don't get it, are you just buying to flip a coin?
Sort of

Quote:
Originally Posted by bware
What makes you think it's a quality stock at a bargain basement price ....
I am not a total idiot.

Before I buy , I check out Yahoo Finance for Analyst opinions and estimates.

Then I move over to StockTwits to gage sentiment.

      
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