the hand is
this one
machina999 is very aggressive, and opens 50% of his starting hands in steal position. My suited ace is ahead of his range and I could 3-bet, but seeing that he tends to call 3-bets often, I keep the pot small by calling. I will be out of position for the rest of the hand, so inflating the pot there is not necessarily good.
I hit my ace on the flop, and he bets small. I'm not sure I had picked up on this at that point of the session, but he does that with a very large portion of his hands, except some of his top pairs that he checks. So I figure to be miles ahead of his range. Since calling would also send the message that I have something, I raise to make him pay for the next card.
Once he calls my raise, I figure he has something too. If we assume that of his top 50% starting hands, he keeps aces, pairs, and heart flush draws, my hand is no longer a favorite against his range, Pokerstove says it's now 53/47 in his favor. Actually, it's probably still better for me because of his tendency to check his top pairs, but I did not know that during the hand. So I exercise some pot control and check.
He checks back, which I interpret as a sign of weakness (I now know it is not necessarily the case with this player, who will often act "opposite" to the strength of his cards.)
So I value bet my ace. He's a loose player, and loose players typically call too much, so I give him an opportunity. Plus after my turn check, my hand could also be a busted flush draw. And he raises big.
At this point he can have a 5, for instance the 5h with another h, 2 pair, or making a play because he knows I'm unlikely to have a 5, and my line looks a bit strange. Maybe he thinks I'm bluffing but doesn't have a hand he can show down, that could be a reason for his raise.
At this point I'm conflicted, between reading his large bet as strong (large bets from almost all except the very best players typically mean strength), and the feeling that I might have induced a play with my turn check. Also, typical opponents do not river raise bluff much, even in 10-02 games.
As legit raising hands are a not prevalent in his range, if I want to play optimally, I need to make him indifferent to bluffing by calling a bit more than with 50% of my range as the bet is 798 in a 800 pot. My hand is clearly in the upper half of what I could have at this point (I could be bluffing with a busted flush draw, and if I had had a better kicker I probably would have bet the turn).
I think having seen him play a bit more now, I would tend to make the call in the same spot, giving him credit for being capable of making a river raise bluff.