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Implied Odds Implied Odds

09-25-2019 , 02:34 AM
Hi Everyone,

New here... I have started taking poker seriously and am currently reading up to improve my game. So far I have read Gus Hansens Every Hand Revealed, Kill Phil by Blair Rodman and Lee Nelson and at present on my second reading of Poker Maths That Matters by Owen Gaines. As well have 3 other books I haven't started yet.

In the implied odds section of Owen Gaines book he talks about, 'our equity' and beside each amount of equity is a number you multiple the opponents bet by to make it +EV, assuming beforehand your immediate odds were - EV. The table is as follows:

35% Equity - 2x opponents bet
25% Equity - 3x
20% Equity - 4x
15% Equity - 6x
10% Equity - 9x

The example he uses is our equity is 20%, the pot is $20 and the opponent bet $10, we therefore multiple the opponents bet of $10 by 4 which gives us $40. There is already $30 in the pot ($20 pot and $10 opponents bet), if we call the $10 we come to the $40 needed to make it a worthwhile bet.

My question is why would you count your own bet of $10? In my mind it would mean you are only winning $30 as the $10 was your bet. Shouldn't it be the case you want to make the opponent bet an extra $10? Then you would win $40 and your own money back.

Hope that makes sense, thanks to anyone who takes the time to read all that.

Danny
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09-25-2019 , 06:24 AM
I think the way it is represented there is very confusing.

Since we are betting (well actually calling) 10$ as a 4-1 underdog we would need to get a pot of 50$ in the end. If we get the 50$ pot we will win it once and lose it 4x on average. Giving us a 40$ profit once (as you said our own call is not profit), and a 10$ loss 4x for a net result of 0$ (or break even).

If the book says the pot needs to be 40$ total, then the book is definitely wrong. It should be 50$.

The remaining 10$ has to be made on a later street. Be careful not to overestimate the likelyhood of you actually getting that extra 10$. Often you can get the bet in later in the hand but you won't always have the best hand when that happens.
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09-25-2019 , 07:20 AM
Thanks Akroma

Glad your reply is in line with what I was thinking.
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09-25-2019 , 09:00 AM
Btw I would not recommend reading any books on poker. Pretty much everything is outdated.

Tbh Gus hansen is considered to be a fish by good players. As is Phil Helmuth.

Not sure about the poker math book (the math is the only thing that stood the test of time from the poker writings). However, if your example is from it, it might not be so great .
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09-28-2019 , 11:36 AM
I believe what you're talking about here is risk vs. reward in poker, and how to turn a direct odds ratio into a breakeven point in % terms. For example, there's $2 in the pot, my opponent bets $1, and I have to call $1 for the chance to win $3 total. Hence my direct odds are 3 : 1.

The equation is breakeven point = risk / (risk + reward), so it is simply 1 / (1 + 3) = 1 / 4 = 0.25 or 25% in this example. If we win the pot 25% of the time, 25% of the time we win $3, 75% of the time we lose $1. Longrun we break even.

Hope that helps. PM me for coaching!
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09-28-2019 , 11:48 AM
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