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How are you running on GGpoker over large sample? How are you running on GGpoker over large sample?

12-05-2022 , 09:19 AM
Hi.

After reviewing a HH databases from a few friends who are GG regulars I've noticed that all who have a positive WR after rake were running considerably under EV. Most are ranging from 15-35BI (1.5-3.5BB/100hands) under EV per 100k hands playing NL50-NL200 regular tables over large samples.

I am curious if there is anyone here who is running above EV over last 100k hands on GG regular tables? If so, please post a graph in similar fashion.

How are you running on GG?

Cheers!

Last edited by Ariandar; 12-05-2022 at 09:35 AM.
12-06-2022 , 11:44 AM
Rigged!
12-06-2022 , 11:48 AM
12-07-2022 , 06:34 PM
12-07-2022 , 10:38 PM
“ few friends” followed by “most” equals just your one person sample size


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12-11-2022 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodOlKevin
“ few friends” followed by “most” equals just your one person sample size

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



My persnoal sample size is the one you see in the graph above. I don't have permission to post graphs of other 5 accounts which are together with mine 350k totaling 2.1million hands.
Some fun facts:

All are EV winners from 0.4-5.5bb/100 over more than 100k hands
All of us are running under EV
The bigger the EVbb/100 winner, the worse the run. The EV5.5bb/100 guy is running at -3,5bb/100 under ev, while the smallest winner EV0.4bb/100, is running at -0.8bb/100 under ev.


This has me a bit worried, because of the GGs PVI system which is basically scamming winning players with rakeback, works in same fasion. Also GG supposedly used their own accounts in tournaments, I don't see any reason why wouldn't they do the same with cash games. And the way they shadily disclose their rake which is by far the biggest among online poker clients, it wouldn't surprise me if something was wrong here.
12-11-2022 , 01:43 PM
Did you use run it once or twice?
12-12-2022 , 04:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10najkrajsi
Did you use run it once or twice?
Myself, I always run it twice except versus short stackers I run it once.
12-12-2022 , 05:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariandar
Myself, I always run it twice except versus short stackers I run it once.
And there is the reason for your graph. Case closed.
12-12-2022 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomLurker
And there is the reason for your graph. Case closed.
Running it twice should reduce variance not increase it.
12-24-2022 , 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GonZo72
Gonzo can u give me link where u find this informations? Or can u send ss for PLO games. Tnx
12-26-2022 , 05:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GonZo72
The stats displayed here displaying bb/100 and evbb/100 are very much wrong and also confirmed to be an issue by their staff. They do not provide any explanation as to why is that, as all other stats seem to check out ok.
12-26-2022 , 06:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariandar
They do not provide any explanation as to why is that, as all other stats seem to check out ok.
Hey!

Guessing the HHs missing rake infos. I haven't seen nowadays any HH from them but i know when they introduced it did not show how much rake was taken.
12-26-2022 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeRieR
Gonzo can u give me link where u find this informations? Or can u send ss for PLO games. Tnx
smarthand.pro/en
12-27-2022 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariandar
Hi.

After reviewing a HH databases from a few friends who are GG regulars I've noticed that all who have a positive WR after rake were running considerably under EV. Most are ranging from 15-35BI (1.5-3.5BB/100hands) under EV per 100k hands playing NL50-NL200 regular tables over large samples.

I am curious if there is anyone here who is running above EV over last 100k hands on GG regular tables? If so, please post a graph in similar fashion.

How are you running on GG?

Cheers!
It wouldn't really be possible for everyone to be running under EV lol.
12-28-2022 , 03:31 AM
Every time I get it in at 90%+ against a rec I expect to lose at this point lol

I'm actually becoming psychologically conditioned to prefer being a 60% favorite or so

Any time I get it good against a reg my hand holds up at normal variance levels.

I guess you can say "oh it's just an illusion because you get it in good against fish more often thus you're going to see more bad beats"

well duh, i'm well aware of that as I've been on every swing imaginable as I've been playing winning poker for 10 years. i'm not some crusher but i'm well aware of variance and how it works but there is definitely something going on with the all in pots against recs, particularly when you're a 90% favorite. i'm sorry but this **** is not normal and i've played on tons of online poker sites and there is something shady going on, it just doesn't feel right atm
12-28-2022 , 03:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockyfour
It wouldn't really be possible for everyone to be running under EV lol.
I'm not writing about everyone. Just about winning regs so that they can keep their soft superuser rigged RNG ponzi running longer.
12-28-2022 , 04:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waking Up
Every time I get it in at 90%+ against a rec I expect to lose at this point lol

I'm actually becoming psychologically conditioned to prefer being a 60% favorite or so

Any time I get it good against a reg my hand holds up at normal variance levels.

I guess you can say "oh it's just an illusion because you get it in good against fish more often thus you're going to see more bad beats"

well duh, i'm well aware of that as I've been on every swing imaginable as I've been playing winning poker for 10 years. i'm not some crusher but i'm well aware of variance and how it works but there is definitely something going on with the all in pots against recs, particularly when you're a 90% favorite. i'm sorry but this **** is not normal and i've played on tons of online poker sites and there is something shady going on, it just doesn't feel right atm
Yes, that is exactly the thoughts that I have and what I also hear from other regs. They can mostly only win vs. other regs, vs recs the EV is not EV. Recs are hitting their outs significantly more often than their odds would suggest. The RNG is being carefully manipulated somehow to favor the rec and not only in all-in spots.
12-28-2022 , 06:20 AM
just lost two more 80%ers against recs specifically all in otf. this has been going on for three months now it's starting to become comical. i'm laughing but also somewhat afraid as i might have to change sites soon just for my own sanity. but where else is there to go? is pokerstars worth it compared to this?
12-28-2022 , 06:21 AM
also the typical pattern for people reading this thread is that when i get it all in against rec the turn or river pairs the board with the top card to give the bad beat (this specifically is what happens every time fwiw)
12-28-2022 , 07:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waking Up
is pokerstars worth it compared to this?
Run at pokerstars 17BI below EV in 8000 hands. Good luck there.
12-29-2022 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreddyTheFish
Run at pokerstars 17BI below EV in 8000 hands. Good luck there.
I've ran 32 buy ins against a degenerate clicking the go all in without looking button literally every single time for 2 hours. These things happen.
12-29-2022 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariandar
I'm not writing about everyone. Just about winning regs so that they can keep their soft superuser rigged RNG ponzi running longer.

Here is my most recent graph for the platform.



Sometimes you run over EV, sometimes you run under EV. What you are observing is really not that uncommon. I run 10's of buy ins under/over EV quite frequently. Probably a big swing once or even twice a month for me.

You need to get your head out of the gutter, what you are saying is a bit cuckoo.

Why would GG risk their licenses and reputation to appease a few recreational gamblers and make them win slightly more? It doesn't make any sense. Not to mention that would be fraudulent AF and I'd assume someone might even go to prison for doing that.

Then you have the government regulators, so they would need to be in on this conspiracy as well.

It's so ridiculous lol. GG doesn't need to rig the RNG for recreational players, they are going to get lucky and get the big wins they chase regardless through sheer luck.

Last edited by Rockyfour; 12-29-2022 at 04:50 PM.
12-30-2022 , 06:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockyfour
Here is my most recent graph for the platform.



Sometimes you run over EV, sometimes you run under EV. What you are observing is really not that uncommon. I run 10's of buy ins under/over EV quite frequently. Probably a big swing once or even twice a month for me.

You need to get your head out of the gutter, what you are saying is a bit cuckoo.

Why would GG risk their licenses and reputation to appease a few recreational gamblers and make them win slightly more? It doesn't make any sense. Not to mention that would be fraudulent AF and I'd assume someone might even go to prison for doing that.

Then you have the government regulators, so they would need to be in on this conspiracy as well.

It's so ridiculous lol. GG doesn't need to rig the RNG for recreational players, they are going to get lucky and get the big wins they chase regardless through sheer luck.
Quote:
Sometimes you run over EV, sometimes you run under EV. What you are observing is really not that uncommon. I run 10's of buy ins under/over EV quite frequently. Probably a big swing once or even twice a month for me.
Congrats on your $742ev win in 9k hands, but your most recent graph is completely irrelevant. What is relevant is big sample size in last 6-12 months or so (100k+ hands from winning regs). 9k hands sample which you base your reasoning on I play in one day and I could post hundred of graphs like yours. What we are observing in combined ~3million hands is the most uncommon thing and the lack of big sample winners on GG is what is the most mathematically disturbing.

Quote:
You need to get your head out of the gutter, what you are saying is a bit cuckoo.
You are an ignorant 3 tabling donk clueless about variance.

Quote:
Why would GG risk their licenses and reputation to appease a few recreational gamblers and make them win slightly more? It doesn't make any sense. Not to mention that would be fraudulent AF and I'd assume someone might even go to prison for doing that.
Simplest of reasons: Money. Their reputation is already shady with many past affairs.
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