Quote:
Originally Posted by so_low
Eh yes it's only part of variance. but if you are AIEV is running much above or much below your actual EV. it is the majority of your variance over that sample.
Like if you are running 40 buyins under/over EV in a 50k hand sample, that will dwarf all other variance.
It's really hard to say what % of your luck is allin EV. If you had a ton of hands/a big database. you could look at the SD of your winnings with and without allin EV included. You would prob need >2 million hands to get a decent estimate. MY rough guess is its' probably somewhere between 25-40% of overall luck over a big sample. Doesn't seem small at all to me.
Fair enough, good post, but I disagree with it ever approaching 40% though.
You rarely get all in in poker.
You play a ton of hands between those hands.
In nearly every hand there is variance that has an effect on your win rate. Sometimes for just a couple bbs, other hands very large chunks of bbs. Situations where you run AA into KK, set into set, flush over flush, ect, are obvious, but less obvious more frequent situations like you or your opponent getting turn or river cards that either suck out or else improve you or them to second best type hands, turn or river scare cards that cost you tons of value or save you from being value towned, are happening all the time. That more consistent variance will dwarf your all in variance imo because of the much greater frequency it is encountered.
Having said all of that, I agree that its something thats really hard to quantify obviously.
I do however believe that my original point is accurate that AIEV being the be all and end all in determining how good or bad you are running like it has become is a bit misguided.
Last edited by 5thStreetHog; 07-23-2013 at 08:17 PM.