Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread [Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread

07-23-2013 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by so_low
Eh yes it's only part of variance. but if you are AIEV is running much above or much below your actual EV. it is the majority of your variance over that sample.

Like if you are running 40 buyins under/over EV in a 50k hand sample, that will dwarf all other variance.

It's really hard to say what % of your luck is allin EV. If you had a ton of hands/a big database. you could look at the SD of your winnings with and without allin EV included. You would prob need >2 million hands to get a decent estimate. MY rough guess is its' probably somewhere between 25-40% of overall luck over a big sample. Doesn't seem small at all to me.
Fair enough, good post, but I disagree with it ever approaching 40% though.

You rarely get all in in poker.

You play a ton of hands between those hands.

In nearly every hand there is variance that has an effect on your win rate. Sometimes for just a couple bbs, other hands very large chunks of bbs. Situations where you run AA into KK, set into set, flush over flush, ect, are obvious, but less obvious more frequent situations like you or your opponent getting turn or river cards that either suck out or else improve you or them to second best type hands, turn or river scare cards that cost you tons of value or save you from being value towned, are happening all the time. That more consistent variance will dwarf your all in variance imo because of the much greater frequency it is encountered.

Having said all of that, I agree that its something thats really hard to quantify obviously.

I do however believe that my original point is accurate that AIEV being the be all and end all in determining how good or bad you are running like it has become is a bit misguided.

Last edited by 5thStreetHog; 07-23-2013 at 08:17 PM.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-23-2013 , 08:29 PM
I just got trip 10s beat by 10s full of Jacks in a low stakes DS tourney.
Last nite I played live poker a couple of hours and the people there seemed to be playing a lot worse than what I have seen on bovada overall.

Last edited by tercol58; 07-23-2013 at 08:46 PM.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-23-2013 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldzNever
I'm crushing the 50NL+ for around 9bb/100 but I feel like I'm leaving money on the table not having Rakeback. I'm positive that my win rate would be lower on any other site. Is it worth it to just keep my action here?
You can achieve a much higher hourly with a much lower win rate on other sites, assuming you can play more then 4 tables.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-23-2013 , 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dustizzl13
why do the tourneys not update when the guarantee is met? is there anyway to have this updated or any math i can do so i can know when to punish the bubble and when people cash?
For me it only updates if I open the tourney lobby from the main lobby. Not from the lobby tab on the table.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-23-2013 , 11:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldzNever
I'm crushing the 50NL+ for around 9bb/100
Over how many hands?

That is crushing it's a decent hand sample size.

very nice


Zy

Last edited by Zy_69_yZ; 07-23-2013 at 11:13 PM.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-23-2013 , 11:08 PM
i had rakeback on bodog through rakereduction which stole everyones money
is anyone still getting rb somewhere else that was grandfathered in?
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 12:37 AM
Im pretty sure there isn't rake back anymore. I've had my account there for 8 years and don't know of any options.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 01:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tercol58
I just got trip 10s beat by 10s full of Jacks in a low stakes DS tourney.
Last nite I played live poker a couple of hours and the people there seemed to be playing a lot worse than what I have seen on bovada overall.
Live players are pretty terrible. I've seen/heard/read lots of players and coaches describe a good online player as between 3-10 times "better" than a live player in terms of the stakes they can play and still win at live. That is, a 1/2 online player, who is good, could handle himself in a 10/20 live game--his 1/2 online is multiplied by 10 to get to 10/20 (even at just 3 times better a 1/2 onliner would be pretty good at a 3/6 live game and could navigate a 5/10 live game too). Recreational (even counting some recreation regs) poker players in a casino have nearly the same mentality as the players who play blackjack, craps, and roulette--"hey, I'm here to gamble." Something to think about when deciding how to spend your hours every week.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 01:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieKelly
My lobbies never correctly update unless I close the software and reopen.
Kind of sucks when you have 4+ tournies running and want to know what spots pay.

Also, why the F does Bovada not have synched breaks?
Same here, however it's easy to figure how many spots pay, just not how much,

Go to any registering tourney lobby, click tourney info and they all pay the same amount of players.

exemptions to (beginner), and 6-max, tourneys.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 02:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tropics
Live players are pretty terrible. I've seen/heard/read lots of players and coaches describe a good online player as between 3-10 times "better" than a live player in terms of the stakes they can play and still win at live. That is, a 1/2 online player, who is good, could handle himself in a 10/20 live game--his 1/2 online is multiplied by 10 to get to 10/20 (even at just 3 times better a 1/2 onliner would be pretty good at a 3/6 live game and could navigate a 5/10 live game too). Recreational (even counting some recreation regs) poker players in a casino have nearly the same mentality as the players who play blackjack, craps, and roulette--"hey, I'm here to gamble." Something to think about when deciding how to spend your hours every week.
this isn't true....a 10/20 game usually has no cap and plays ginormous. imo they are not even close to the same thing. 100bb 1/2 online and 10/20 live with 15k+ stacks...wrong.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thenutlow
this isn't true....a 10/20 game usually has no cap and plays ginormous. imo they are not even close to the same thing. 100bb 1/2 online and 10/20 live with 15k+ stacks...wrong.
The size of the stacks has zero to do with the skill level of the players which was the point he was making.

A bad player with $200 on the table is the same bad player with 15K on the table.

There arent too many open to the public casino games anywhere at any level that will be as tough as a normal NL200 Merge table period.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thStreetHog
The size of the stacks has zero to do with the skill level of the players which was the point he was making.

A bad player with $200 on the table is the same bad player with 15K on the table.

There arent too many open to the public casino games anywhere at any level that will be as tough as a normal NL200 Merge table period.
That would depend on what city you live in. And bad players usually don't risk 15K, unless you are lucky to seat at a table with a gambling millionaire. Also, the higher the stakes, the more prone a bad player is to making mistakes. So a bad player with $200 at a table is much more likely to make more mistakes when 15k is at risk at much higher stakes. Everyone has limitations. You can't compare apple to oranges. NL200 on Merge? You can't even get your money out of there in 2 months if you win. The highest stake tables right now at Carbon is $3/$6. 3 Tables, two with zero players, and one table with just one player waiting. It's not even playing right now.

Last edited by wwwin; 07-24-2013 at 11:11 AM.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 12:28 PM
I understand there is a limit to 4 cash games simultaneously. Do they impose the same restrictions for there MTT's? I want to grind the mtt schedule, but would be retarted if your only allowed to 4 table
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pean002
I understand there is a limit to 4 cash games simultaneously. Do they impose the same restrictions for there MTT's? I want to grind the mtt schedule, but would be retarted if your only allowed to 4 table
no limit for MTT tables.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 12:34 PM
Great news, thanks
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 12:52 PM
get your pee bottle ready
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by idun215
no limit for MTT tables.
Technically there's a 20 table limit for MTTs, but for all practical purposes it's unlimited.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 06:41 PM
how long do you have to wait to download your hand histories? i did it yesterday and not its saying for today not yet available.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 06:41 PM
25 hours
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 08:22 PM
can someone describe their experience with the western union deposit method or just direct me to a thread that runs through deposit methods. thanks.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halstad
get your pee bottle ready
ROFL sad but true
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-24-2013 , 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dustizzl13
why do the tourneys not update when the guarantee is met? is there anyway to have this updated or any math i can do so i can know when to punish the bubble and when people cash?


I keep the tournament lobby open when it gets down to bubble time so I can see when I'm ITM and where the pay bumps are.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-25-2013 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A MTT PRO
What about the $50 weekly promotion? It's not rakeback but it has to factor in to the equation.
Yea but that is tiny compared to traditional rakeback

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkoPolo
You can achieve a much higher hourly with a much lower win rate on other sites, assuming you can play more then 4 tables.
yea I can play about 6-8 tables before my win rate starts to suffer.

My sample size is about 75,000 hands. My only concern is the triple rake on Winning. Which is the only other place I would consider seeing as the games are way too nit filled on Merge.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-25-2013 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halstad
get your pee bottle ready
And poop bag.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote
07-25-2013 , 07:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tropics
Live players are pretty terrible. I've seen/heard/read lots of players and coaches describe a good online player as between 3-10 times "better" than a live player in terms of the stakes they can play and still win at live. That is, a 1/2 online player, who is good, could handle himself in a 10/20 live game--his 1/2 online is multiplied by 10 to get to 10/20 (even at just 3 times better a 1/2 onliner would be pretty good at a 3/6 live game and could navigate a 5/10 live game too). Recreational (even counting some recreation regs) poker players in a casino have nearly the same mentality as the players who play blackjack, craps, and roulette--"hey, I'm here to gamble." Something to think about when deciding how to spend your hours every week.
Good point I notice several times at the casino when folks from say a Mississippi Stud wonder into the poker room after a big hit and things get interesting.
[Bodog/Bovada/Ignition] Unofficial Thread Quote

      
m