Quote:
Originally Posted by rakeme
20% is being generous. Probably closer to 1%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malefiicus
I'd venture it's a bit more than that since a lot of players don't post until they start winning and feel proud enough to talk some **** on here. Maybe 5-10% is my bet, probably closer to the 5. I'd say 99% of the people viewing this thread are not winning players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by d3 fact0
If some one put a gun to my head and made me choose I'd go with 5%. Interesting thing is when I was a daytrader at a prop firm, only about 4% were consistently "beating" the market...
You guys are off a little bit. As winning poker players we can tend to overestimate how hard it is to win at poker online. It is very hard, but not that hard. All the studies that Ive seen over the years point to the fact that 20%+ or so of overall players are winners. That is excluding RB of any form such as bonuses or promotions. For example, Sharkscope did a study of their database in 2009 and found that 26% of tourny players were overall winners. They redid the study this year and found that number had dropped to 22%. I believe Ive seen other studies and numbers in the recent past to suggest that cash games are similar. Also, to suggest that players that took the time to find 2+2 and become members are worse overall than the average population seems off as well. Id suspect the % of winners to be higher on 2+2.
Here is a link to the older and newest Sharkscope study results if anyone is interested in a site by site breakdown.
http://sharkscopers.com/what-fractio...s-are-winners/
http://sharkscopers.com/what-fractio...inners-part-2/
For people to lazy or not interested enough to go to the links, here is a great segment regarding the myth about the number of winners in poker and some guesses about what causes it which I believe are pretty spot on.
Quote:
One of the common – and more amusing – threads I see on many of the internet forums is discussions about what fraction of online tournament players are profitable. One of the most frequent guesses i see is 5%. Often someone will then post that SharkScope has in its FAQ that 1/3rd of usernames are winners. The person will who suggested 5% will then immediately claim our numbers must be wrong.
Why they think we would get this wrong I have no idea – but for psychological reasons players seem to want to believe the number of winners is small. The losers want to feel more justified in showing that they haven’t won any money because its extremely hard to do so, and presumably the winning players want to feel that their accomplishment is even more special.
So what are the exact numbers? Based on our entire database 26% of players are winners. If you exclude rake, then the number is more like 33% of players are making money against other players.
The fraction is also surprisingly constant for the different tournament variants, for example if you filter for just heads up games, the percentage of profitable players is still exactly 26%.
Last edited by 5thStreetHog; 05-10-2014 at 10:06 PM.