Quote:
Originally Posted by ak97b
And the serious volume I posted of 100k-250k a month is not a hypothetical grinder. It's not a small percentage of one or two grinders either. There's a lot of regs who actually put this volume.
Luckily for us, there's the Beast leaderboard, so I can give you a pretty rough estimate of how many people are booking 250,000 hands a month.
IME you get roughly 2 points for every 3 hands played at 100nl. There are exactly 20 players who put up 15,000 points this past week, which is enough to put you in the 20-25,000 hand range for a week. (Most of the players play higher stakes, so it's less hands than that for them.) So assuming all of them are low stakes grinders (and they're absolutely not, I only recognize two names as 100z- players), there are less than 2 dozen players who are getting the sort of point total that puts them on pace to get in the ballpark of 100k hands in a month.
Literally nobody is putting up the sort of point total that's indicative that they're booking 250k hands per month at 100nl+.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ak97b
One day, maybe when you can actually put that kind of volume and not be bothered by "40 buyins under EV over 150k hands" you'll understand.
That's not how it works. If I were to quit my day job and do nothing by grind all day, then the 40 buyins of variance in a month would be a
bigger deal. And if I were doing nothing with my time but playing poker, then losing 5 minutes of productivity would be an even smaller deal to me.
It's the 2-tabling recfish who thinks taking extra time to run a second board only to chop the pot is a waste of time, and the 6-tabling pro relying on poker income who wants to realize their EV as quickly and often as possible and doesn't think anything of the extra second.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ak97b
Your assumptions are wrong and you made an analysis that's compoundedly wrong because of wrong assumptions. Bottomline, it does stack and by a lot.
Which assumption exactly?
I went ahead and filtered my database for how many hands see showdown after going all-in before the river, and it's 0.47% of all hands. So my 1-in-100 estimate feels pretty generous. (Cue some passive aggressive ad hom comment about how REAL grinders GII before the river once every 20 hands.)
My second assumption was that RIT costs you a full second. How long do you think it takes to run the second board?
You are correct my third assumption about table volume is wrong, but not for any reasons that are going to help your case. There isn't some large class of grinder out there 8 tabling Blitz because there isn't some large class of grinder putting up a quarter million hands a month, and vice versa. Assuming you can get nearly 200 hands/hr/table when 6+ tabling Blitz is generous enough (there's diminishing returns from multi-tabling Blitz), and there's only so many hours in a week.
You can only inflate the number so much before you start assuming things like there's a huge class of mega-grinder out there who doesn't study or sleep or eat. And the more you inflate the absolute number, the more relatively silly it the less-than-hour of productivity loss becomes in some massive 300+ hr work month or some nonsense.
Last I'm saying on this for real this time. Love ya, smooches, etc.