Good question Brian:
I make an assumption which is the following:
- Somebody who plays 63/19 and limps UTG, even if its only 16 hands is 95% a big fish.
- Those type of players have a very wide range and will call anything that hits the flop remotely, no matter how big you bet.
Why bet large ? Its more simple than you might think:
=> VALUE!
Conclusion:
On the flop we have a big valuebet no matter what. Of course we don´t love the ace, but most players get more freaked out than needed.
Question 1: What if turn was an 8 and river A
Answer: Still bet again. But not close to pot anymore, because you do have to weigh in the likelyhood of him having Ax and us being beat some %.
Lots of worse hands (pair + gutter) and random crap he can call with.
If we get raised at any point, we fold.
Action: I´d bet like 2/3 pot. If the river is an ace, i bet closer to pot again (3/4). If its a blank, i´d bet a bit less than half pot.
Question 2: What if turn is 9 / 5
Answer: Still bet again. The main reason if you´re not betting is, because you´re "scared". Its a psychological mechanism that prevents you from betting.
I assume you´re not check-folding, so you´re losing the SAME amount if he hit trips, but you give DRAWS a free card...
I´ll repeat: any time he raises, we´re out.
If i get called, i will check fold river vs not bluffy stations and check call on non-flush cards vs bluffy stations
Question 3: which turns are we not betting and why
Answer: Vs this guy, you gotta bet ANY turn
Question 4: What about river if we bet flop and turn
Answer: The river becomes interesting if you get called. I guess i´d bet smaller if the spade hits and bigger if its a complete blank, but i´m betting ANY river after the ace on the turn.
Ok probably not a 9 river. But thats about it.