There were a lot of staking packages sold around the WSOP this year. Many on 2+2 in the Staking Selling Shares Live Forum and many others on You Stake and Stake Kings. Has anyone ever tried to put together an analysis of those to see which were profitable and which were not?

I'm pretty sure most that were in the 2+2 Staking Forum were not profitable. When Chainsaw posted looking for stakers this year and wouldn't post his buy in records over the prior WSOP's but was touting his cash totals it got me thinking there needs to be a place like Hendon Mob where you can see tourney players actual ROI. Would be interesting to have a summary of those results to review when those same people coming knocking for stakes again next year. Discuss.

caveat emptor /thread

There seems to be this massive inefficiency in the market where whales can instantly sell out mtt action for infinite markup. However I don’t know if being able to see the whales “actual ROI” would even help prevent suckers from being exploited.

Prob just have to mostly let nature run its course and the market will iterate to greater efficiency on its own. Let suckers dumb enough to get exploited buying live players/content creators/social media personalities/coaches/streamers/whales mtt action at 1.5 go broke or learn to stop lighting money on fire. Things will gradually correct themselves.

It is pretty ****ed that these whales are so deceptive about their actual ROI and suckers must get scammed for awhile in order to learn, but oh well. Hopefully there is at least some entertainment value for the sucker that partially makes up for the -$EV.

^^ 1.5??? U wot m8???

a site with actual roi's for all players..

would be nice loool

You think documenting someone’s results over a couple hundred tournaments would tell you anything? It would just attract a different kind of gullible person, enticing them to invest for different reasons that don’t make sense.

Theres nothing stopping you doing it by looking at the live staking results threads etc or asking investors how they did.

The number of people who aren't profitable over a sample size of a dozen MTTs is always going to be massive, no matter who they are or what they sell at. That's poker. I'm interested in seeing if everyone collectively was profitable or not, both at zero MU and at their stated MU.

do the ground work and you will know

If the market was perfectly efficient then there wouldn't be poker.

I never understand why hendon mob is such a desirable thing. you could have a load of results, but on their own, they only paint a small part of the picture. I think it should be changed, that in order for your result to be shown, you should commit to saying you are entering the event before it starts. that way, it can show events you entered but didnt cash. there are obviously some issues surrounding late reg and re-entries. but there must be an elegant solution.

whats the incentive? I don't see one.

There isn’t one. Hendon Mob is a results database. Not their fault if people base assumptions of profitability off of that database.

Even for a winning MTT player the most likely outcome for a 20-30 MTT package is a negative one. That is to say, even if its a +EV investment you should expect to lose money.

Trustworthiness aside, if you're considering investing in someone I would make sure they have a proven track record of winning money over 1k+ MTTs, which is likely only possible for online players with public sharkscopes. Also inexperienced poker players tend to see Hendonmob binks as proof of skill, which is obviously not the case, but will pay a huge markup for those guys without knowing any better.

What everyone else said; more packages will lose than win because it's a 20 mtt sample, and the occasional package will bink big when a guy makes a deep run/wins in a big event

Obv most packages being sold at 1.4 or whatever are -ev unless they're elite players and/or very soft fields but there are some absurdly soft fields out there. I think a lot of people underestimate how tough European fields are, probably underestimate how tough random non special WSOP events are, and probably overestimate how tough fields are in Australia/most of Asia. I'm sure there are random 2k events around the world where i'm anything from a losing player to one of the best players in the field.

At the end of the day do your own research and figure out whether a package is likely to be profitable before you buy. A fair markup for example for me (ex pro who is currently at 'bad reg' status) might range from being a +EV buy at 1.4 (say the WSOPME or a deepstack at my local room where there are no pros and i'm familiar with all the rec players and I probably have a 100% roi) to me being outright -EV at face in a tough reg infested field (say the 10k 6max at the WSOP whatever where i'd probably have a -15% roi or something).

There are good pros I wouldn't buy at face in certain fields, and recreational players i'd snap buy at 1.5 for the quarterly series at my local poker room's main event, it's all about the player's edge relative to any given field and there's no concrete way to calculate that exactly so it's up to the investor to use their best judgement

People selling at extortionate MU should be called out though like if Phil Hellmuth was selling to the PPC at 3.0 or whatever people def should warn recs not to buy it, but there's a lot of stuff thats borderline like who is to say whether a standard reg is a good buy in the WSOP ME at 1.5 or not it'd be borderline impossible to figure out

1.5 is -ev even if its a solid MTT reg in the ME.
1.5+ MU is just not gonna make money in the long run. period.

At 1.5 it's still may be a positive one but the remaining upside is just so small it's never going to compensate for the variance you will face to withstand.
Also for games would be worth buying at 1.5 people usually don't want to sell, figure why

Um yeah no, there is no way that say Steffen Sontheimer or Justin Bonomo or Michael Addamo or Fedor Holz or [insert 100k high roller winning reg here] isn't +EV at 1.5 in the WSOPME

Obviously it'd take forever to realise your equity either way but you would get absolutely ruined fading say the top 50 players in the field every year in the WSOPME over a hundred year period at 1.5.

If you wanted to fade someone like me at 1.5 in my local $150 or $300 deepstack series that is all pub poker players limp-folding 4bb stacks, calling 6x pot bets with top pair no kicker and check-calling down with middle set then that would burn your money quickly too and i'm not even a great player. It's about edge relative to the field. Anyone who was around for 2007 online poker can tell you that a 100%+ roi is very achievable in a good structure if almost everyone in the field is outright terrible. There are fields in live poker around the world that are still like that; they just don't exist online in 2019 even at microstakes. As I said before there are live tournaments where I almost certainly have a 100% roi, and live tournaments around the world where i'm almost certainly a losing player and i'm probably somewhere in the middle skill wise for people who sell action on 2p2. You'd be insane to buy me at face in a 10k 6max, and insane not to buy me at 1.3 in a random local $300 event with no good players. I'm sure there's a number at which a person can't possibly be +EV in a tournament even with a collection of the worst players in the world but it certainly isn't 1.5.

If you offered any player in the world at 1.5 in any tournament of an investors choice you would quickly go broke. Obviously the vast majority of regs are not +EV in the vast majority of tournaments at 1.5 but saying that no one is very +EV at 1.5 in anything is just flat wrong

Obviously it's a terrible idea to buy most packages at 1.5 but there are plenty of players that are clearly +EV in the main at 1.5 and to say there isn't is just absurd.

Also the WSOP Main event isn't even one of the softest poker tournaments in the world it's just the softest 10k. By day 3 or so yes, it's still a soft tournament, but about half of the players on your table are going to be competent-ish (there will be a ton of fish but not of the open shoving 300bb with AJ or check-calling three streets with the second nuts variety) and you're not even ITM yet. There is a big big difference between a -90% roi type player and a -30% roi player and tournaments like the WSOPME are filled with the latter, random events in India or China or Australia or whatever are far more likely to have a lot more of the -90% type fish which is what matters for attainable roi.

There are plenty of random 300 player field all-rec field events at random casinos around the world where any good reg at 1.5 would be +EV

How many people would one have to pick for you to sell the group at 1.5 in the WSOPME?

Like, if someone agreed to pay you 1.5x MU for 200 people in the ME? Because I'm pretty sure you could find people who would give you a 200 person long list and then pay 1.5 for them in the WSOPME. I'm randomly thinking 300+ people is the cut off for you to find action on something like that