Quote:
Originally Posted by JonReremy
honestly that is a +EV bet for you, theres 185 players left so only 5% of players left will make the FT
okay my math is not great but i'll attempt and someone can correct me if i'm wrong.
so if 5 percent of players are left that will make the FT, that means, if everyone had equal skill and equal stacks, each player would have a 5 percent chance of FT it.
ivey and elky are 2 players, so you took 10 percent (5+5).
so right now, it's 90/10 against you.
that means you would need ivey and elky to be 5x better than the average player with the average stack to make your bet good?
it's up to you to determine if you think their skill plus their larger than average stack size is worth more than 5x.
at first i thought you made a bad bet, but thinking it through, it's reasonable.
i made a 1:1 bet that the current chip leader will NOT make the final table.