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Old 07-12-2018, 03:32 AM   #2576
DogFace
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Tomorrow's FT:

Player / Chips / Career Tourney Winnings

1. Nicolas Manion - 112,775,000 (28.6%) // $16,739
2. Michael Dyer - 109,175,000 (27.7%) // $95,020
3. Tony Miles - 42,750,000 (10.9%) // $54,333
4. John Cynn - 37,075,000 (9.4%) // $944,786
5. Alex Lynskey - 25,925,000 (6.6%) // $1,769,666
6. Joe Cada - 23,675,000 (6.0%) // $10,779,041
7. Aram Zobian - 18,875,000 (4.8%) // $110,444
8. Artem Metalidi - 15,475,000 (3.9%) // $2,131,437
9. Antoine Labat - 8,050,000 (2.0%) // $194,789

Interesting dynamic. Cada, Metalidi, Lynskey, and Cynn are the four most accomplished players in the field, but they're all relatively middle-low on chips. The three chip leaders are arguably the three weakest players remaining.

Manion has kind of a Dennis Phillips vibe. Air tight. Not going to make a lot of mistakes, but also not going to run any big bluffs or bully people. Great chance of a top 3 finish. Dyer seems a bit more volatile and you can imagine him putting a lot of chips in the middle. Still, his head start can't be discounted. Those two should finish in the top 4 at a minimum if they don't spaz or get very unlucky.

The medium stacks are 1-2 big hands away from being in real contention. I've been most impressed with Cynn and Cada out of these nine. If one of them can get some rungood then I think they have the skill to outplay the chip leaders. Metalidi has over 2M in career winnings, so is probably a very good player too. He seemed card dead as opposed to just tight today.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:34 AM   #2577
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

This might top the craziest WSOP FT bubble hands that I'm aware of either 03 Ivey v Moneymaker of QQ69 99 vs AQ riv A or 98 Scotty Nguyen AQ > AA > TT to knock 2 out (televised wasn't till 6 then so that was 7th and 6th). Nguyen's was allinpf.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:36 AM   #2578
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist View Post
All in all, I still really like Cada's chances. The two biggest stacks mostly got there by either turning into a card rack, or winning an unbelievable cooler. But Cada has chipped up by earning pots. That was one helluva display all evening.

By the way, I see quite a few comments that he has improved quite a bit since 2009. And while that's almost certainly true, is it possible that the plays he made tonight (esp. the shove with 55) were not really all that different from the small-pair shoves he made at the 2009 N9? He just happened to run into bigger hands against Shulman or whoever it was (EDIT: it was Saout).

i.e. he did tonight what he did nine years ago, but because of the cards his opponents happened to have, he looks like a genius tonight while looking like a lucksack donk then. To me, he's taking the classic "go big or go home" strategy, which probably explains the tourney success he has had -- both then and now.
Disagree. He played extremely tight for most of the past two days and took the conservative route more often than not. I would say it was the opposite of "go big or go home." More like, "avoid variance at all costs."

He shove A6s when very short and got lucky to double. He 4 bet shoved 55 in a blind vs. blind type of situation. He ran the huge bluff with ace high against Lynskey. By and large though, he played ultra tight and took no chances. That's probably part of why the A-high bluff went through. His table image was perfect at the time.

I think he played amazingly well overall. He made a questionable fold with JJ last night in a tricky spot. In general, he hasn't been catching elite hands (can't remember him holding QQ-AA more than maybe once in the past day or two) and yet he's still here. Testament to him. Great display.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:36 AM   #2579
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Manion was 95 out of 109 players in chips at the end of day 5.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:40 AM   #2580
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

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At 1.16 did Shak flash her boobs or am I imagining things LOL!?
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:43 AM   #2581
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Utah_CUtiger View Post
Manion was 95 out of 109 players in chips at the end of day 5.
If someone has the time to look back at End of Day Counts for Day 1, it'd interesting to see the Final 9 End of Day 1 stacks, I bet a few of them were below par, maybe even on crumbs.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:50 AM   #2582
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

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Originally Posted by BMOL33 View Post
To me itís an easy fold for Labat because the Zhu shove. If heís in Zhuís position then obviously heís shoving. But whoever is in that 3rd spot should find it easy to get away. I mean what are the odds neither guy has aces?
Easy? LOL

Oh, you also are the guy who thinks Manion should have flatted.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:51 AM   #2583
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly View Post
If someone has the time to look back at End of Day Counts for Day 1, it'd interesting to see the Final 9 End of Day 1 stacks, I bet a few of them were below par, maybe even on crumbs.
Ask and ye shall receive. According to PokerNews:

Zobian (1B) - 171,000
Labat (1C) - 168,500
Cynn (1C) - 133,000
Metalidi (1B) - 102,700
Dyer (1B) - 74,000
Miles (1C) - 72,800
Lynskey (1C) - 67,500
Cada (1C) - 16,500
Manion (1C) - 11,500

Pretty incredible to see how low Cada and Manion were. Horrendous first days and look at them now.

Mildly interesting that no one from day 1A advanced to the FT.
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:52 AM   #2584
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

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Originally Posted by dusk2dawn View Post
Easy? LOL

Oh, you also are the guy who thinks Manion should have flatted.
No I said he SHOULD NOT have because it looks suspicious. That’s still an auto fold there. You can’t call with two all ins before you with kings when those all ins are from the tightest two players at the table. To be honest even if Chino Rheem and Scotty Nguyen go all in there that’s still a fold
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:59 AM   #2585
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFly View Post
If someone has the time to look back at End of Day Counts for Day 1, it'd interesting to see the Final 9 End of Day 1 stacks, I bet a few of them were below par, maybe even on crumbs.
Manion - 11,500 (c)
Dyer - 74,600 (b)
Miles - 45,700 (b)
Cynn - 133,000 (c)
Lynskey - 67,100 (c)
Cada - 16,500 (c)
Zoubian - 171,000 (b)
Metalidi - 102,700 (b)
Labat 168,500 (c)


Edit: oh pokernews beat me to it
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Old 07-12-2018, 03:59 AM   #2586
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
This might top the craziest WSOP FT bubble hands that I'm aware of either 03 Ivey v Moneymaker of QQ69 99 vs AQ riv A or 98 Scotty Nguyen AQ > AA > TT to knock 2 out (televised wasn't till 6 then so that was 7th and 6th). Nguyen's was allinpf.
we almost always have drama during the FT (semi) bubble. the negreanu 11th place on the river, matt affleck's bad beat on the river vs. duhamel, the two ladies getting KO'd on the bubble by the same guy, etc.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:03 AM   #2587
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

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Originally Posted by KansasCT View Post
we almost always have drama during the FT (semi) bubble. the negreanu 11th place on the river, matt affleck's bad beat on the river vs. duhamel, the two ladies getting KO'd on the bubble by the same guy, etc.
Ivey in 2003. Scotty blow up in 2007. Mortensen falling just short a few years back. Seems like the poker gods hate a fun sweat. Not this time though.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:04 AM   #2588
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BMOL33 View Post
No I said he SHOULD NOT have because it looks suspicious. Thatís still an auto fold there. You canít call with two all ins before you with kings when those all ins are from the tightest two players at the table. To be honest even if Chino Rheem and Scotty Nguyen go all in there thatís still a fold
My bad thought that was you.

But easy and auto fold? Stahp.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:05 AM   #2589
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogFace View Post
Ask and ye shall receive. According to PokerNews:

Zobian (1B) - 171,000
Labat (1C) - 168,500
Cynn (1C) - 133,000
Metalidi (1B) - 102,700
Dyer (1B) - 74,000
Miles (1C) - 72,800
Lynskey (1C) - 67,500
Cada (1C) - 16,500
Manion (1C) - 11,500

Pretty incredible to see how low Cada and Manion were. Horrendous first days and look at them now.

Mildly interesting that no one from day 1A advanced to the FT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Utah_CUtiger View Post
Manion - 11,500 (c)
Dyer - 74,600 (b)
Miles - 45,700 (b)
Cynn - 133,000 (c)
Lynskey - 67,100 (c)
Cada - 16,500 (c)
Zoubian - 171,000 (b)
Metalidi - 102,700 (b)
Labat 168,500 (c)


Edit: oh pokernews beat me to it
Cool thx guys! Wow, amazing to see Cada and Manion were so short coming into Day 2. You know how much has to go right when you come back that short for you to make it just past Day 2 to Day 3? Crazy!
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:19 AM   #2590
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

If Cada wins this, might be the biggest accomplishment ever in poker.

Itís an entirely different ball game to come 1st twice in a 7k+ field. The people who won the main more than once did it with way smaller field sizes, so itís not even comparable.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:19 AM   #2591
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Yea, it's definitely amazing to think about it. I guess that's just the nature of NLHE tourneys though. I always say that no matter how stacked/short you are, you're only two hands away from glory or ruin.

I find tournaments to be a series of inflection points where either you get the big rush you need to propel you forward or something terrible happens and you crash out. The amount of bullets these guys have dodged to get this far is just incredible.

Take Cada for example. I'm not saying he's lucky, but if Lynskey picks off that bluff then he's gone. If his A6 loses to AT aipf then he's gone. If Labat has a real hand instead of marginal crap when Cada 4 bet ships 55 on him, he's probably gone.

Same can be applied to the rest of the survivors. Dyer beat Goncalves in that huge flop in a near coin flip. Cynn was dealt KK in a hand where Phan went nuts and 4 bet trash. Manion getting AA vs. KK vs. KK. Lots and lots of rungood is required to get here.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:24 AM   #2592
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Man, its incredible how scared people play poker, itd be nice to watch people who actually play for the win. That KK fold the other day was atrociious longterm but happened to be "right" that time. Then Gerritts almost folded kk to Phans cold 4bet.I dont for 1 second believe he tanked"out of respect and payjump" to help Souza. Once he jammed dd you see the look on his face and where he put his arm? Scared ****less he wasnt against aces.

Then just tonight we see Zhu make that atrocios shove.... and this guy is supposed to be a good player. 1.5 milll and a call in front of you, both players have you covered and you just jam 42 mill n the pot? Nice job Zhu you are just getting QQ/JJ/1010 to fold, probably AK too, actually most definately against Marion. What ever happened to inducing? Put in 7milly and make it look like you can actually fold to a rejam. MAybe f you pt ni 7milly or something one of the other guys would go nuts and shove AK or JJ where they can convince themselves ur just making a squeeze.
-And then the dude overcalls his KK afterwards? What a trainwreck. He s chopping at best and not commited at all. Just fold
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:24 AM   #2593
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BMOL33 View Post
No I said he SHOULD NOT have because it looks suspicious. Thatís still an auto fold there. You canít call with two all ins before you with kings when those all ins are from the tightest two players at the table. To be honest even if Chino Rheem and Scotty Nguyen go all in there thatís still a fold
There are so many possible hand combos that could have played out that way imo. The key is that Labat had simply flatted pre. If he had 3-bet and then the two shoves follow it's easier to consider getting away from it. But they way that played out with his flat there could easily have been all kinds of combos of the other two having anywhere 10 10 or better. Labat could have figured Mannion to isolation shove with AK, maybe AQ suited, JJ or better since he's not going to put Labat on any of those because of the fact that he flatted.

It was the smooth call pre flop which effed him imo.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:26 AM   #2594
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

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Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys View Post
Man, its incredible how scared people play poker, itd be nice to watch people who actually play for the win. That KK fold the other day was atrociious longterm but happened to be "right" that time. Then Gerritts almost folded kk to Phans cold 4bet.I dont for 1 second believe he tanked"out of respect and payjump" to help Souza. Once he jammed dd you see the look on his face and where he put his arm? Scared ****less he wasnt against aces.

Then just tonight we see Zhu make that atrocios shove.... and this guy is supposed to be a good player. 1.5 milll and a call in front of you, both players have you covered and you just jam 42 mill n the pot? Nice job Zhu you are just getting QQ/JJ/1010 to fold, probably AK too, actually most definately against Marion. What ever happened to inducing? Put in 7milly and make it look like you can actually fold to a rejam. MAybe f you pt ni 7milly or something one of the other guys would go nuts and shove AK or JJ where they can convince themselves ur just making a squeeze.
-And then the dude overcalls his KK afterwards? What a trainwreck. He s chopping at best and not commited at all. Just fold
Zhu had 24 million. He might have been trying to make his hand look like AK to pick up calls from JJ-QQ.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:31 AM   #2595
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Mannion (JJ) raise to 1.5
Labat (KK) call
Zhu (JJ) shoves
Mannion reshoves
Labat folds

Twitter/Interwebs: "OMG that effing chickensh*t moron folded KK there!!!"
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:35 AM   #2596
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogFace View Post
Zhu had 24 million. He might have been trying to make his hand look like AK to pick up calls from JJ-QQ.
Not sure about that (I think if he shoves AK there he wants folds), but while tighter than most at that table, he had shown a willingness to put chips in the pot before the final 10 - he had mainly gone card until then.

He could easily have shoved there with JJ/QQ etc (knowing he's very unlikely to fold to a 4 bet anyways) just wanting to take it down).

And Mannion could have been ISOing with a number of different hands.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:39 AM   #2597
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys View Post
Man, its incredible how scared people play poker, itd be nice to watch people who actually play for the win. That KK fold the other day was atrociious longterm but happened to be "right" that time. Then Gerritts almost folded kk to Phans cold 4bet.I dont for 1 second believe he tanked"out of respect and payjump" to help Souza. Once he jammed dd you see the look on his face and where he put his arm? Scared ****less he wasnt against aces.

Then just tonight we see Zhu make that atrocios shove.... and this guy is supposed to be a good player. 1.5 milll and a call in front of you, both players have you covered and you just jam 42 mill n the pot? Nice job Zhu you are just getting QQ/JJ/1010 to fold, probably AK too, actually most definately against Marion. What ever happened to inducing? Put in 7milly and make it look like you can actually fold to a rejam. MAybe f you pt ni 7milly or something one of the other guys would go nuts and shove AK or JJ where they can convince themselves ur just making a squeeze.
-And then the dude overcalls his KK afterwards? What a trainwreck. He s chopping at best and not commited at all. Just fold
With 42 million he might have done just that. But he had 23 mill. Totally different to what you are saying.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:58 AM   #2598
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtle! View Post
Not sure about that (I think if he shoves AK there he wants folds), but while tighter than most at that table, he had shown a willingness to put chips in the pot before the final 10 - he had mainly gone card until then.

He could easily have shoved there with JJ/QQ etc (knowing he's very unlikely to fold to a 4 bet anyways) just wanting to take it down).

And Mannion could have been ISOing with a number of different hands.
Not sure what you think Manion's "number of different hands" range would be that exclude KK/AA/AKs. Maybe QQ but from Labat's perspective he needs to underweight AK/KK/QQ because he holds KK and QQ is a common holding for both Zhu and Manion.

The best possible situation for Labat is Zhu/Manion both hold <= QQ, which would be the absolute minimum of their respective ranges, and should be a precursor to folding. I got it about 80% either Zhu or Manion holds AA.

That plus $150K pay jump, likelihood Zhu is eliminated, and an above average stack going forward all point to Labat fold.

Last edited by PokerHero77; 07-12-2018 at 05:05 AM. Reason: I guess Zhu/Manion both holding AK/AKs is possible, but very unlikely
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:16 AM   #2599
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Go Cara de Nada Cada!
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:07 AM   #2600
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Re: WSOP 2018 results/tournament discussion (**NO SPOILERS**)

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys View Post
.
-And then the dude overcalls his KK afterwards? What a trainwreck. He s chopping at best and not commited at all. Just fold
This is what someone said on twitter who called it a cash game play. I never thought of it that way but yeah you could argue that even if you think as Labat there that one has KK and the other QQ you are still taking a risk in that one gets lucky with a flush or the QQ hits the set youíre dead. In a cash game you could say call it because you can rebuy if you lose and a chop of the QQís stack may be a decent haul. Here though what difference does 11 mill make on a chop if youíre at 61 vs 41 mill? Youíre still going to be too 4 stack at the table anyway.
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