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Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to?

09-09-2018 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
the very best starcraft players didn't make close to 7 figures, I think the absolute best was close to 500k
pretty sure brood war players made a lot. wc3 i think was the highest tho. not sure how much other quake players made but between prize money and endorsements id guess fatality made well over a mil if not way more

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
the only players who make a lot are those playing Dota 2 I think with their gigantic prize pool
the international is the only absurd one, once a year. but its a couple mil each for winners and 1+ for 2nd place (for each person on both teams and hefty payouts down lower)
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2018 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToiletBowler
Take things like chess, sports, E sports, etc, and you’ll notice the common trend with the up and coming players is that they have been playing intensely since their early to mid teens. With chess, some start off as young as nine years old and then go on to be world class.

With poker, you legally cannot play until you’re 18.

1. So you don’t have the 5+ years of intensive practice like you would have in other competitive fields.

2. 18 is also the time where you have less free time with regards to having to manage a job and education (or just a full time job). So even if you wanted to get your head down and grind / study from 18+ onwards, you’ll have way less time than when you were just going to school. You can play / study more poker in one year as an underage teenager, than you could in three years as an adult in a full time job.

These weren’t issues pre Black Friday when edges were so huge. But now that competition is tougher, these are very tough challenges.
Most people 18-22 that get into poker are either students and they have tons of free time, or people that work part-time and play poker the rest of it. I would say having to go to high school is far more time consuming then being a university student.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2018 , 08:14 PM
Not everyone can be like Freddy Deeb or Tom Dwan. Not everyone can be like George Clooney or Leonardo Dicaprio.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-11-2018 , 01:18 PM
only read the first page so far.... but some very neat analysis and description on the phenomenon...

the overfishing is exactly what happened. i use the example of subsistence farming myself. basically the skills to be a good player are not hard. and most fish either drop out or improve swiftly, which is very very easy if you are motivated to do it. that's where B&M poker is better as there are still people who just like to go to the casino and just play, no caring too much about losing money. but even those people don't want to look like idiots, limping in every hand and then being killed by 4 or 5 sharks at the table.

first mover also makes sense....... things like affiliate/FB marketing and sports book/poker referral codes you had to be really early to make a ton of money (recurring too apparently) at it. eventually tons of people get into it, alot of the best prospects have been signed up and the sites themselves change the rules.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-11-2018 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gamboneee
mostly, yeah, but there were non koreans making near 6 figures early 2000s. im sure fatality made a ton.

but to get into streaming today isnt any easier than poker, really. esp considering you make zero dollars on your way up vs poker you can grind along and live off some. big lol at your last point tho. progamers are gonna do what? become IG models?

im quite sure there are less streamers making 6 figs than poker players making 6 figs.
Not sure you have an understanding of the current make up of the esports industry. Not only do I guarantee that there are more streamers globally that earn 6+ figures from streaming than their are from online poker, but your comment about IG modeling shows how little of the industry you know about. IG modeling might work for some females, but the vast majority of large streamers are able to monetize youtube, merchandise, affiliate programs, guest appearances and casting gigs, even after they quit playing whatever game competitively.

Obviously if we include live poker in the earnings comparison, poker will still come out on top by a good amount, but I'm assuming this thread is about online poker.

Last edited by Tilltard; 09-11-2018 at 01:50 PM.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-11-2018 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gamboneee
pretty sure brood war players made a lot. wc3 i think was the highest tho. not sure how much other quake players made but between prize money and endorsements id guess fatality made well over a mil if not way more



well I wasn't talking about overall winnings, I was talking about yearly salary
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-06-2019 , 04:14 AM
I'm bumping this thread as a response to the guy who created the thread of how to get the younger generation into poker. I hope this is allowed, if not; sorry for any hassle caused.

Last edited by PLSINEEDTHEMONIES; 09-06-2019 at 04:15 AM. Reason: grammar
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-06-2019 , 04:19 AM
The younger generation needs a new tom dwan.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-07-2019 , 08:12 AM
Talent doesn't thrive in this game anymore, many hours of hard work does. PIO did that
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-07-2019 , 01:52 PM
cause they quit Poker forever when they move up to NL5 and notice that they make 1 cheeseburger per Hour while paying 3 Cheeseburgers an Hour in rake
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-07-2019 , 09:41 PM
The correct answer is this.

1) The poker boom of 2003-2012 caused what can only be called a cultural 'selection pressure' among kids of a certain age (born, say, late 70's to mid 80's), creating a truly massive talent pool from which to sort out the real talent-outliers (empirical observation, but same phenomenon as seen in other sports/games/etc)

2) This same age range is a real cognitive peak for quick thinking, etc (proven: science)

3) During and subsequent to the poker boom, the evolution of publicly available game theory knowledge reached incredible heights, making competition A LOT harder overall (empirical, but nobody would disagree who watched it unfold), meaning that a young up and comer has a much steeper climb, probably weeding out many, if not most, and making it a lot harder to develop a sustainable roll suitable for the highest levels.

My theory is the young, cognitive outliers who were selected from the massive talent pool created by the poker boom years were in the right place at the right time to enjoy unusual success, relative to their ability to forerun the skill curve.

Flatten out that same skill curve (which has happened) and radically diminish the talent pool from which to derive up-and-comers (which has happened), you get this.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-07-2019 , 11:50 PM
A bunch of underachievers with a lot of poor excuses as to why they're not rising up through the stakes ITT.

I played professionally from 2008-2010, made a little bit of money, and got out of poker due to tax reasons. I then studied and got a master's degree in economics, finished up and took a corporate job in 2016 that I had until october 2017. I then decided to give poker one final shot, returning as a lowstakes regfish and having set aside a $10 000 online bankroll and $10 000 offline money for 6 months of living expenses until I expected to become profitable. I started out playing nl100 and focused primarily on studying and improving to begin with. Today I play nl500-5k. My yearly EV is way, way more than I had with a master's degree working as an accountant, and more importantly I absolutely love what I do now, as every day offers something completely new and challenging. The corporate job I had was so mind-numbingly boring and easy in comparison that I struggle to find a good way to put it into words. Now, I'm 31 years old, so I don't fit the 18-21 year old topic listed in OP, but there are several younger people around doing the exact same thing. I know because I battle them regularly. The poker dream is far from dead. Anyone who tells you otherwise simply wants an excuse as to why they're not able to do it, or why they shouldn't try to accomplish their dream.

It's safe and easy to conjure up excuses, it's much harder to actually apply yourself every day to achieve your goals without making excuses. People choosing the latter will always win my respect over people choosing the former.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-08-2019 , 11:04 PM
graph with ev line please ^
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by barney big nuts
graph with ev line please ^

There you go. Should cover most of my volume on tracked sites. Doesn't include a few hundred k hands on sites that I unfortunately can't track. November 2017 - ytd. A majority of the tracked volume comes from 500z on Stars. Don't want to disclose $ figures, but the $EV line is very similar to the BB one. Also stuck lower-mid 5-figures from HS MTTs in the same time interval, unfortunately no lucky binks to shortcut my way up.

It is still very possible to rise up through the stakes relatively fast, if you make it your top priority and mission to do so. Not saying everyone should quit their dayjobs of course, but people should stop peddling the "it's impossible to succeed at poker in 2019"/"It's impossible to move up from small stakes because of xyz" narrative. Of course the games are tougher than they were in 2008, but gaining access to quality information and making a plan for improving is infinitely easier in 2019.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 12:24 AM
nice
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 01:21 AM
Most people don't make it to the top for a bunch of reasons that are not limited to; laziness, not smart enough, BRM. I'm one of them. I make a living at the mid-stakes but could be playing much higher many years ago if I'd had not been as lazy in recent years and I'd been better with BRM.

I know of a guy who's been playing ~2 years and is doing pretty well from MTTs with a mid-high stakes abi. He challenges almost every decision he makes, he's aggressive at taking shots and he plays almost every day.

I'm assuming it's been mentioned from the talk of esports above but if I were 16 and going to commit all of my time to a hobby it would not be poker given esports is the new thing.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 04:17 AM
@Gzesh

When u say ppl have been fishing with dynamite, What do you specifially mean by this in reference to online poker?

*

Edit/MH: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...47&postcount=3

Last edited by Mike Haven; 09-09-2019 at 06:31 AM.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 09:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pastis

There you go. Should cover most of my volume on tracked sites. Doesn't include a few hundred k hands on sites that I unfortunately can't track. November 2017 - ytd. A majority of the tracked volume comes from 500z on Stars. Don't want to disclose $ figures, but the $EV line is very similar to the BB one. Also stuck lower-mid 5-figures from HS MTTs in the same time interval, unfortunately no lucky binks to shortcut my way up.

It is still very possible to rise up through the stakes relatively fast, if you make it your top priority and mission to do so. Not saying everyone should quit their dayjobs of course, but people should stop peddling the "it's impossible to succeed at poker in 2019"/"It's impossible to move up from small stakes because of xyz" narrative. Of course the games are tougher than they were in 2008, but gaining access to quality information and making a plan for improving is infinitely easier in 2019.
****ing well done brother. NJ
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 09:47 AM
I don't want to be debbie downer, that's an impressive graph and all

but...

that's 2 years of play, 600k hands, and 26k bbs won

let's say those unaccounted for few hundred k are rounded up to 1 million hands and winrate the same so 43k bbs won over 2 years

that's 40-50k a month of hands - very reasonable grind, clearly putting in lots of time

and just rounding up to say it's all 500nl, with a bb = $5, that's 215k over 2 years.

100k a year may be mildly competitive for what a corporate accountant with a masters degree could earn in their late 20s, but that's not going to seem very impressive when you're comparing yourself to your old classmates when you're in your 40s

again, well done, impressive, but I don't think your poker opportunities will scale the way your corporate career would and it's much easier to manage a team of employees in your late 50s than still be on the grind
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 10:37 AM
^^ LOL that's some white collar mentality that basically ignores like 50% of the population. If you make 100k a year your are crushing so many people on income.

My main gripe is that his graph is in BBs, my graph looks impressive too when I switch to BBs lol.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 10:54 AM
Let's assume you're correct, and it's around 1 million hands and avgstake nl500, 43k bbs won, or $215k. That'd leave out live earnings (I travelled to Vegas during WSOP both years). So sure, let's work with upper 200's - closer to 300, hypothetically.
That figure would still be while I was pouring hours and sometimes days into just studying and learning how to beat the game properly, learning where to play, who to play and what to play.

This may not be obvious, but with better skill, higher average stake, better game selection and a bigger bankroll usually comes opportunities for a higher hourly. I'm not looking to defend my choice of choosing poker over accounting, as I don't have to explain myself to no one. But if you can't see how this has been the correct choice for me, you're trying too hard.

I'm also not after comparing myself to my old classmates. I'm very happy and satisfied playing a game that I love for high stakes every day and having a much higher EV and way more fun than I would have had grinding the corporate ladder.
I can say with pretty high confidence that finance will be there for as long as we live, the opportunity to make a lot of money playing online poker may very well not be around in 10 years. My degree isn't going nowhere, and I can speak for myself well enough that I'm sure a potential future employer could look past a hole of a few years in my CV, should it be needed. Hopefully though I won't have to take up a 9-5 after I exit poker, but only time will tell.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Huntington
^^ LOL that's some white collar mentality that basically ignores like 50% of the population. If you make 100k a year your are crushing so many people on income.

My main gripe is that his graph is in BBs, my graph looks impressive too when I switch to BBs lol.
yeah, shocking to apply white collar mentality to someone who has a masters degree in economics... ffs man you must be one of those guys who complains that athletes should play for the love of the game only too right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pastis

I'm also not after comparing myself to my old classmates. I'm very happy and satisfied playing a game that I love for high stakes every day and having a much higher EV and way more fun than I would have had grinding the corporate ladder.
this may be true now, but you're 31... you have another 40 years of work ahead of you

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pastis
I can say with pretty high confidence that finance will be there for as long as we live, the opportunity to make a lot of money playing online poker may very well not be around in 10 years. My degree isn't going nowhere, and I can speak for myself well enough that I'm sure a potential future employer could look past a hole of a few years in my CV, should it be needed. Hopefully though I won't have to take up a 9-5 after I exit poker, but only time will tell.
I think this is a bit overly optimistic to assume you can rejoin the game in your 40s. You will be too old for consideration for the lower level positions and too inexperienced for the higher level positions. Nobody wants to hire someone with an advanced degree for a lower level position because they know you'll bounce once you find something better.

I am not knocking your choices and as stated, that's a commendable graph. You are clearly doing something right. But I don't think you fully grasp that you are burning bridges to a very successful and productive life in exchange for one that may not be around or appealing to you in a decade.

Just keep those doors open is all I'm saying. Keep your network strong, attend conferences, do some part time work or consulting. Stay relevant and in the game, even if just for a few hours a week. It could even be something more volunteerish like donating a few hours a month to a non-profit.

Just keep those doors open. When I first got into poker as a career I was playing live and it was just one after another of people who were otherwise smart, hard working and talented who were imprisoned by a game they no longer crushed and didn't have any avenues out. Dutch Boyd is now working as a dealer. Max Steinberg couldn't get any tech companies to hire him, fortunately he did well enough to buy one to then work as data scientist.

I'm on your side dude, just keep those doors open. 40 years is a long time. You want to have options.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pastis

It is still very possible to rise up through the stakes relatively fast, if you make it your top priority and mission to do so. Not saying everyone should quit their dayjobs of course, but people should stop peddling the "it's impossible to succeed at poker in 2019"/"It's impossible to move up from small stakes because of xyz" narrative. Of course the games are tougher than they were in 2008, but gaining access to quality information and making a plan for improving is infinitely easier in 2019.
Well done. How relevant do you think pio and similar applications are for being able to have a significant edge online these days?
That's all, best of luck with the grind.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 11:20 PM
@rickroll
I appreciate your concern. Would you tell an athlete in his prime, who also had a uni education as a backup, to go and attend conferences and work part-time for charities to maintain that backup plan instead of focusing 100% on his main career? I'd argue that poker at the highest level (I'm certainly not there yet, but it's my goal to get there) easily requires the same amount of dedication as that of any professional sports career. Furthermore I don't plan on grinding far into my 40s.

One of the first lessons any investing class will teach you is that money today is worth more than money tomorrow. This is the very principle that interest rates are built upon. The huge effects of compounding should certainly not be overlooked when considering an opportunity to make a lot of money within the short to medium-term versus a relatively low starting wage that has more stable income increases in the long-term.

Also I don't think that the two are so mutually exclusive as the picture you're painting. You may very well be right that I'll struggle in some version of the future where I have to return to a 9-5, of course. That's a risk I'm willing to take. Another thing that winning a lot of money in poker could lead to is startup capital for some future endeavour that I still haven't thought of. Who says you have to work a 9-5 and try to rise through the corporate ladder (grind through the stakes)? I think starting a company that does something I'm passionate about would be a thousand times more fulfilling and enjoyable compared to working some safe office job. Like you said, I might need to work for over 40 more years from now - it surely would suck to just do something for 40 years that I didn't really enjoy doing just because it's safe money and I'm likely to get pay rises down the line, right?

@Bram90
I think it's one of several aspects, that if applied correctly can offer a lot of good insights into how the game works.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote
09-09-2019 , 11:43 PM
Have only read the OP in this thread but just wanted to chime in and say the term 'naturally talented' in relation to poker is a load of rubbish.

Some people may have more potential than others due to certain intellectual or personality traits and qualities but nobody is naturally talented to begin with.

Poker players generally way overestimate their skill edge as a rule. Having half a brain and the ability and drive to study the game intensively is all you need.
Why don't we see any gifted 18-21 year olds rising up through the stakes in the way we used to? Quote

      
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