who cares about 100k hands though

Ponzi schemes tend to be like that. The window of opportunity only stays open for a limited time. Then everyone wants a piece of it and the donators stop donating.

Put yourself in a professionals shoes. 100k hands is probably 1.5 months of grinding for a midstakes USA player.

That's 45 days in a row of losing or breaking even. That's two months of the mortgage/rent/ bills paid from savings (even worse if you're losing at the tables). If it's the first big downswing then you're most likely panicking a little. And if you've been through it more than once I bet you're sick and tired of it (because the game isn't even interesting anymore). If you have family I'm sure it's even worse.

You don't know when it's going to end but you have to not tilt, play A game etc etc. And oh yeah, you're not even making a killer wage anymore and the games are drying up before your eyes every month.

You'd have to be pretty crazy to just be getting into the game at this point and even consider it at as a career. Games are already tough, variance will be a lot higher now than ever. (since your edge will be much smaller than the guys getting into it early on)

I can't even imagine the logic behind someone doing it as anything more than a hobby if they are starting right now. Obviously some guys who got into it early are going to continue to grind since making a career change at this point would be difficult.

I think what a lot of people have articulated is important. Which is that it just isn't as lucrative as it used to be. Can you still win? Yes, you can still win. Can you still win a lot? Yes, you can still win a lot, but the "lot" is much less than it used to be. Can you still do it with the same amount of work required as 10 years ago? No, you have to work more and differently now.

So, is it worth it for an 18-21 year old to try it now? I dunno. Depends on that individual's situation I guess (what are the other options?). But it was probably more likely to be worth it 10 years ago than now, and every year in between probably got slightly less worth it, perhaps with large jumps at certain points.

So, it can be done, but is it worth it to even try to do it at this point? Can you do something else and get more?

If the 18-21 year old has the option of a good college and out of there has the option of a good graduate school or medical school or law school or good job with opportunity for advancement, then that is probably going to beat the poker option.

Under what circumstances would it make sense for an 18-21 year old to focus their life on a poker career? (assuming they are intelligent enough to do well at poker) Even if they slacked off in high school and can't get into a good school, they'd still be better off going to a tech college and probably earning a 100k+ a year 5-10 years down the road.

I seriously doubt anyone with an IQ below 120-125 (maybe considerably higher) could make a good living at poker any more these days. Hard to see why it would be worth the much higher risk of failure, resume gap, ect. Not to mention joining a heavily declining market.

Maybe it would sense for someone that was extremely autistic or anti-social to the point where it was hard for them to leave their house or interact with anyone.

I think a lot of this is true.

So many people on here seem to think life is about titles, salaries, and job security. Kinda sad. I value my freedom above any of that. Why would you spend 40+ hours a week working and 10 more commuting just to make another man rich? Maybe you eventually get to take home 6 figures, if you kiss enough ass and lick enough balls. If that's worth it to you... well good for you I guess. Never understood it though.

Poker isn't some stroll down easy lane. It has its own unique set of challenges, but I enjoy the challenges that poker brings more than the challenges that an office job brings (I worked 3 years in an office). I think it takes a certain type of person to prefer the freedom that a life of a poker player provides over working a standard 9-5. It's quite likely that if poker passed me by or I wasn't good enough at it to succeed, I would have found another way to generate income in a way that doesn't enslave me to a company, and I think the same is true for most poker players. From what I've seen, poker players like to be self-sufficient

you can be self employed in many areas though tgiggity, don't necessarily have to be an employee

Absolutely, but that requires the kind of work ethic and risk taking that being a poker player does. I doubt I will play poker for a living forever, but I hope to always be self employed

Most of the responses in the thread seem to be saying "If you can't make 200k+ at it without effort, why bother? It was an easy ride to easy money before, and now that it requires some work and some focus why bother?"

I never looked at poker as the easy street to gravy town. It's obviously very challenging, and that's part of what makes it fun. But I can see why people who don't want to be challenged might just jump aboard the corporate train to monotony town.

So the average reg is mentally weak, too lazy and not intelligent enough to discern good information from **** information. Meanwhile, you're flying through the stakes and making easy money, but worked out it's not worth your time and instead taking the studying route. Makes sense.

I appreciate your alternative opinion, but I'm just not buying the fact that poker is as easy in 2018 as you claim it to be. We can see that from the huge numbers of regs who struggle to break out of micros or small stakes (and these regs are far better than any regs from 2003-2008).

also @ upswinging when you play poker for a living you look at your results more on a yearly basis than monthly, so 100k hands is pretty whatever, and if you don't have money saved for year's worth of bills and spending then you're doing something wrong

As a 30 year old who grew up in a 1st world country in europe i would like to share my 2 cents. This is highly subjective but i think lots of poker players here think the same.

I have had Jobs and worked since i was 16, i worked in containers piling packages for UPS, worked as a bartender, as a waiter and in food delivery. During my bachelor studies in economics i started to play poker and made enough money on the side to supply my studies without working in these kind of jobs. I have finished my masters degree in investment and finance and decided to take a well paid office job and i have worked in 3 different companies for almost 3 years now. My working hours were not terrible and the job itself was OK, but what most people here dont seem to understand are the things coming along with the 9-5 office job.

As someone who worked and studied alot during the night it was terrible for me to wake up at 6:00 am every single day, being constantly tired throughout the day. There is no possibility to take a nap after lunch, sitting in meeting rooms completely tired and wearing non comfortable clothes. I think its people dependent, but i dont want to see - and talk to a group of people around me directly after waking up, chatting and being loud on the phone, the noise and the atmosphere was killing me and i got serious health problems after a year. You are most likely sitting around with 95% of complete idiots, corporate soldiers, who are willing to tare you apart in order climb up the corporate ladder and take advantages of you. You cant trust anyone and you cant be yourself, you cant burp when you feel to, you cant fart and you cant shout to your boss when something was unfair or something made you angry. If you cant be yourself it is very exhausting and energy draining, constantly feeling that you are observed by someone makes very depressive. As someone who is interested in philosophy i found that everything i stand for in my life, is not existing in this environment.

After work there wasnt any quality time either, because i was so exhausted i just watched some bull**** on TV and fell asleep. The weekends were OK but every Sunday evening someone said "OK, the round continues".

Looking back, in enjoyed the "****ty" jobs i have done when i was younger much more than the office job and I would take them anytime over the higher salary Jobs. I have met the most inspiring people in those times as well as at the poker tables. Being able to plan my day and working into the night means much more to me, i was much more happy back then and i felt much more healthy.

If you are in the beginning of your 20s, i think its important to just try it, whether it is poker or something else which allows you to have the freedom you wont have anymore as an employee in a corporate job. Having a degree is good, if you fail you still have a backup if you need to start to support your family when youre 30 or 40+. You can ALWAYS get a well paid ****ty office job, because you know why? Because you are making someone else rich, you are a slave for someone else and slaves are ALWAYS welcome. Dont buy this bull**** with working experience and stuff, if you have a degree they will always hire you.

I highly advocate to try things out in your 20s, risk things and go for it. Poker will give you the freedom in terms of the things i mentioned above and if poker dies you will find different paths by that time. Other things might do as well but suggesting a 20 year old to climb up ladders in a corporation is the fastest way to complete emptyness. There are people who are happy to do that, but those people are not individuals. And i think that most poker players here are individuals.

I for myself have planned my exit this year, i have stopped being worried thinking about "...What if...in XXX years???" Worrying is a waste of time and it will stop you from living your life.

If you enjoy playing poker just **** go for it.

Nobody in the thread has said that poker is easy in 2018. Not a single person. Besides, you're changing the goal posts. First it was, "why aren't 18-21 year olds moving up in stakes like they used to?" Now that you have some answers, and some examples of us who have done just that in the past 6-12 months, you change the subject to: "well it's not that easy, tons of regs who are better than 2003 players can't beat the games today."

And yeah, that's true. Games are tougher now. What do you want us to say? It seems like you're fishing for reasons that make you feel better about not being able to beat the games anymore. It can't be your lack of fundamentals, or lack of poker knowledge, or lack of work ethic. It must be something wrong with the game, or the other players, or all the evil software, right?

But the post you were responding to wasn't about midstakes players. It's about getting out of the 'rake trap' and if you're not able to hit 100k hands in a month of small stakes cash you're just not working very hard or clearly are busy with other things. Even with a full time job or course load (but not both) you can do this, not that i'd recommend it.


Of course you can get crushed over 100k hands as a small winner. That doesn't mean it's a regular occurrence - do you really need me to crunch the numbers to show how common it should be for someone with winrate x in games with a normal standard deviation? The problem is not that it's prohibitively difficult to move up in stakes (though it is harder than it was in the past), it's that there just aren't that many midstakes games worth playing at any given point in time (and high stakes games extremely rare) and that's the big pay off that a lot of people want to know exists to justify all the struggle. Not many want to invest years of their lives making regular-job wages doing dull, repetitive, stressful tasks in the hopes of maybe making $100/h. A motivated 18-21 year old has much better options. The choices aren't between grinding poker and dull repetitive office jobs. There're a lot of jobs that don't suck - it's just that finding them requires you either know people to help you get started or do some serious work into researching what's available.

Interesting post heyUwe!
What do you plan on doing once you quit your job ?

It sounds like you're agreeing with me. As you climb the stakes the swings get even worse. There really is no golden pot at the end of the rainbow irt poker. There is an insane amount of winners bias even in online games (more so as edges are smaller than before).

All the "crushers" that dropped out since online pokers existence didn't quit because they weren't capable of improving their games, they quit because they saw the writing on the wall and the truth about winrates and variance. Mind you these were during times when theoretical winrates were through the roof.

It's a ponzi.

I just thought I'd respond to this relatively briefly before I study a bit and put in some more table time. I'm by no means 18-21. I'm 36 and have only been around the online game (never played live yet) on and off for about 4 years. I've repeatedly kicked myself for not getting involved in the game back during the "boom" as I had a good 35k in cash, but wound up going another direction and before I knew it, it was 2013/2014 and I was learning the game online.

I'm a US player and I've been playing online more and more the past month or so. I need the outlet and the extreme challenge of today's game is good for me. I'm not sitting here saying "I'm going to be a pro" but I'm playing online, putting together a roll for $1/2 live, and doing the best I can. Whatever comes of it, comes of it. If between online and live I can earn a decent living, I may go that route for the reasons others have mentioned: Freedom, working for yourself, love of the game, not something I have to do forever, etc. If a better opportunity comes in front of me, I'll assess my situation then. For right now, it's a hobby that I'm putting 100% effort into.

There's a huge, huge lack of television and media representation of the game today. It was extremely lucrative for them to promote young, upcoming talent back in the mid and late 2000's. Now, there's hardly any poker on TV in the States, the online market is completely offshore and unregulated, and poker has come full circle in a way now that it's back "in the dark". As others have written here: With a combination of live and online play, there are still US players making a killing. There's just less of them than before, they work a lot harder than their predecessors did (for the most part), and you don't hear about them at all.

It's a different world, economy, and game here in 2018 but the game is most certainly not dead and all it would take is a change in legislation here in the States to inject the game with a ton of fish again. There's an ebb and flow to everything in life. Poker is no different in this regard.

^Great post.

yes, that's exactly the average reg, lol. to be fair, it has nothing to do with poker. that's people in general.

what are your other hobbies? do you go to the gym at all? how many people do you notice who are stuck with the same physique and lifting numbers, year after year?

play any video games at a high level? how many people are just "stuck" at garbage levels (read: <98th percentile). i played sc2 and got to GM after a year. six more months, i was top 16 GM (99.97th+ percentile). this is all while casually playing. i'm not some genius. i simply approached the game properly. just like with poker.

anyway, i'm going the "studying" route because that's always been my goal. however, poker has definitely changed my opinion on a lot of things. i am definitely open to playing full time, but i would want to be making enough (and be confident there's a future) in 2-3 years from now to actually warrant quitting. that decision will take much deliberation and won't even be considered for a while

just curious, what stakes are you playing at, how long have you been playing, and what are your methods to improve?

Reading all of these "Well, I'm perfectly healthy I don't need insurance!" posts is just cringe worthy. Illness, disease, and accidents aren't excluded from anyone because they are in "perfect health". Medical expenses in the US are astronomical, if you don't have health insurance and something serious happens you could easily be in hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. Everyone thinks insurance is a rip off until they need it and don't have it.

These are true words of wisdom. Even at 23 I had friends telling me "oh, forget insurance, you don't need that!" and I knew they were just young and ignorant. Ironically, I got caught without insurance when I needed it a few years later and learned that you're one wake up away from being in a really bad position if you don't have any coverage. Things happen.

Even if you do wind up in an entrepreneurial venue, keep yourself covered with your own policy. It's absolutely necessary here in the States.

Sorry your office experience wasn’t a good one? I can only assume that because This is very negative and inaccurate depiction of the business world

There has never been a better time in history to start your own business. Now is the time to get into start ups. Choosing poker instead is the equivalent of being already good at poker in 1998 and instead of applying yourself to that, starting a career in printing

Calling poker full time “freedom” is an absolute joke. If you are playing full time now you are doing it because you are a degen/have poor communication skills/from a country with few options/love the game so much you are prepared to cop all the negative ramifications. Whatever. But don’t call grinding ****ing freedom

A start up takes money. I'd love to start a business, and I'm sure plenty of other poker players/non poker players would as well. You're speaking from a position of massive privilege if you think starting a business is easy/cheap. Not to mention a start up won't make money for at least 2 years. So yeah, starting a business is a great idea, in theory.

I'll tell you how full time poker is freeing for me. I haven't set an alarm in months. I sleep in as long as I want, and I work whatever hours I want. Some days I work 9 am - 3pm. Some days 3 pm -5 pm. I work from home, or wherever I want, but I don't have a commute. Some days I work all day when I feel like it, but if I get tired or hungry or just plain bored, I take a break. I work my own hours, at my own pace, and besides taxes whatever I earn goes to me. When I plan on working but something better to do comes up, I have the freedom to drop my work anytime.

I take time off of poker whenever I want. In fact, I haven't played a hand in almost 3 weeks. No boss gave me permission, I just took the time off. If I want I could take another 3 weeks off. I also can live anywhere I want, and when I move I can start making money again immediately. In fact, I could travel the world with just my laptop and visit anywhere I want to go, all while making more money than most people make slaving away for their drooler of a boss.

If these things don't define freedom to you, I'd like to know what does. Also, what negative ramifications do you think come with playing poker? I don't deny there are some, but I'm curious what you think they are

All I said about the business world is that you have to kiss ass to move up, and I mentioned that commutes tend to be long. You really want to argue against that? lol