What % of your net worth would you risk w/ AA vs KK? - Page 2 - Poker News

Two Plus Two Forums Poker News & Discussion News, Views, and Gossip

What % of your net worth would you risk w/ AA vs KK?

View Poll Results: What% of net worth would you risk AA v KK?

1-5%

14 4.03%

6-15%

32 9.22%

16-25%

41 11.82%

26-40%

38 10.95%

40-60%

53 15.27%

60-80%

53 15.27%

80-95%

33 9.51%

95-100%

50 14.41%

Daniel Negreanu

33 9.51%

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 5

1 2 3 4 5

Page 2 of 5

1 2 3 4 5

01-13-2019 , 04:08 AM

#26

BeHumble!

banned

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 276

Quote:

Originally Posted by happy to be hear

Higher the net worth the lower the % should be, imo

the diminishing function of dollars in regards to utility, blah blah blah im all in.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 06:34 AM

#27

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by happy to be hear

Higher the net worth the lower the % should be, imo

Not necessarily. While the marginal utility of increasing your net worth by x% goes down as you get richer, it will also allow you more freedom to make very +EV gambles.

Someone with 10k to their name may not be comfortable risking much of it at all, since they actually need the 10k to live. Someone with a billy can blast off half of it at this very +EV gamble and be (almost) just as well off as before if losing it.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 06:53 AM

#28

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

I'd risk less than 1% but that wasn't an option.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 07:49 AM

#29

Toupee Jay

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 768

I would never risk more than 10% of my net worth on any investment, so why risk more on a gamble. I'd say up to 5% wouldn't affect me one way or the other, but that's just me and my comfort zone.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 07:57 AM

#30

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toupee Jay

I would never risk more than 10% of my net worth on any investment, so why risk more on a gamble. I'd say up to 5% wouldn't affect me one way or the other, but that's just me and my comfort zone.

So what if you have to dodge a 1-outer on the turn instead of a 80/20? Would you risk more than 10% then? What if it's perfect runner-runner (1000:1) you need to dodge, what then?

It's kinda stupid to say you would NEVER risk more than 10% on aaaanything

Opportunity cost is a real thing. Not taking a fantastic shot can be equally dumb to taking a really bad shot

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:13 AM

#31

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

To me it seems pretty crazy that you wouldn't risk more than 10% on a single investment yet would risk 5% on a gamble. Charlie Munger says that diversification is for know nothings. Warren Buffett says "diversification is protection against ignorance."

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:28 AM

#32

Xenoblade

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 4,085

an investment is a gamble though...

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:31 AM

#33

JoeC2012

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toupee Jay

I would never risk more than 10% of my net worth on any investment, so why risk more on a gamble.

Because unless you've found some amazing investments that everyone else in the world has missed, AA vs KK provides a much better risk profile.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:46 AM

#34

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

Can you tell me why an investment isn't a gamble?

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:48 AM

#35

KossuKukkula

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 2,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys

I got a better question

You are offered 500million dollars cash, if you survive the following task. You have to put one bullet in a revolver, spin it, and put the gun to your head and fire once. One in 6 chance of death. Do you take the gamble?

Spoiler:

Yes because if you fail you don't even know it.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:53 AM

#36

namisgr11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,504

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Can you tell me why an investment isn't a gamble?

While investment outcomes still entail a degree of chance, the risk lies more in the incomplete information fundamental to the investment and relevant to future performance than on chance compared with taking AA against KK, for which there is virtually no incomplete information.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:56 AM

#37

Iblis

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys

Spoiler:

What's the catch?

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:56 AM

#38

namisgr11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,504

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeC2012

Because unless you've found some amazing investments that everyone else in the world has missed, AA vs KK provides a much better risk profile.

Actually, it provides a much higher risk of failure (losing it all) than many traditional investments, and your gains are capped at doubling.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 09:58 AM

#39

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by namisgr11

Gambling is placing money on an uncertain outcome. Not only is the result of an investment uncertain, the market would not exist if that were the case. I have no doubt the risk isn't as binary as flipping a coin but let's stay true to definitions.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:14 AM

#40

Xenoblade

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 4,085

anything that you have any % chance to lose money at is gambling obv

investing your money on AA vs KK is absolutely ****in great, very little investments have this kind of return... no sure why we are even arguing this?

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:40 AM

#41

blue moon

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 276

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhatsUpGuys

Spoiler:

the added weight of the bullet make it more than a 1 in 6 chance

lol gravity

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:44 AM

#42

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Can you tell me why an investment isn't a gamble?

I suppose it depends on what Toupee Jay invests in. It very well could be pure gambling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

If you want to get technical, nothing in the future is certain. However, some investments are far more certain than others. The less certain an investment is the more likely it is to be a speculation, or pure gambling.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:47 AM

#43

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xenoblade

It has a nice return but bankroll still matters. I went 0-7 all in preflop with AA one month in live poker.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:52 AM

#44

namisgr11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,504

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Gambling is placing money on an uncertain outcome.

One that's uncertain owing to chance, and in the case of AA vs KK AIPF to chance alone.

You'll never get it, I'm done.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:53 AM

#45

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

I suppose it depends on what Toupee Jay invests in. It very well could be pure gambling.

If you want to get technical, nothing in the future is certain. However, some investments are far more certain than others. The less certain an investment is the more likely it is to be a speculation, or pure gambling.

And the more certain it is, the less your return will generally be by design of the market. It's not really investing if you barely keep up with inflation just to avoid any risk. Also the same methods of reducing your risk of ruin apply to poker and investing. The "nothing is certain" is just not genuine because you don't play one hand of poker and call it gambling, to then compare it to spreading investments and averaging your returns over multiple years. The same minimal chance of losing money can be done by having a bankroll and playing millions of hands. Investing is gambling like poker.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:55 AM

#46

namisgr11

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,504

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xenoblade

investing your money on AA vs KK is absolutely ****in great, very little investments have this kind of return... no sure why we are even arguing this?

Because it provides a much higher risk of failure (losing it all) than most traditional investments, isn't influenced by information that allows investing using expert knowledge, deduction and inference, and your gains are capped at doubling.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:55 AM

#47

PokerPlayingGamble

Dispute Unresolved

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by namisgr11

Actually, it provides a much higher risk of failure (losing it all) than many traditional investments, and your gains are capped at doubling.

otoh the time horizon is one minute and the expected return is 60%.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 10:57 AM

#48

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by namisgr11

One that's uncertain owing to chance, and in the case of AA vs KK AIPF to chance alone.

You'll never get it, I'm done.

I get your point, but the inherent reason of the uncertainty doesn't matter for the definition. "chance" is not in the definition, so I don't know why you bring it up. Uncertain is the key word, and unless you have all the information (which you can't and also perfect information on the market would lead to an equilibrium where you make no money) an investment is uncertain.

I'm not debating whether investments have the same root cause of uncertainty. Nor do I care.

Quote

01-13-2019 , 11:08 AM

#49

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

And the more certain it is, the less your return will generally be by design of the market. It's not really investing if you barely keep up with inflation just to avoid any risk.

Depends on one's edge.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

Also the same methods of reducing your risk of ruin apply to poker and investing.

Absolutely.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

The "nothing is certain" is just not genuine because you don't play one hand of poker and call it gambling, to then compare it to spreading investments and averaging your returns over multiple years.

Well Toupee Jay said he would put 5% of his net worth on a single hand of poker and only 10% on a single investment and that seemed peculiar to me considering investment risk is often spread over a long period of time and can be mitigated whereas the risk of losing a single hand of poker is immediate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

The same minimal chance of losing money can be done by having a bankroll and playing millions of hands. Investing is gambling like poker.

This is where we disagree. I don't consider playing poker over the long term to be gambling whatsoever.