Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
What will poker look like in 10 years? What will poker look like in 10 years?

12-05-2011 , 09:40 AM
whos knows... possibly nonexistent
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skater3598
love this
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 10:59 AM
Facebook buys Pokerstars
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klakteuh
From HSNL thread :
this would mean banning people as bots for going on good runs of strategy or not tilting enough. at that point you are better off just banning people whose winrate is too high.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 03:42 PM
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoahSD
Depends pretty heavily on what sites choose to do about bots right now. If they continue to ignore them, the current generation of bots (which are very good and very profitable for their owners) will continue to evolve. They're already better than the best players at LHE HU and better than the average player in almost all NLHE FR games. In ten years, if they continue to be developed fueled by the money that they're currently earning because the sites completely ignore them, they'll almost certainly be better than the best players at all forms of NLHE, and at that point, either there won't be any players for them to play OR the profitability of running them will be high enough that they'll be able to circumvent any security measures.

In other words, right now, it's probably not SO profitable to run a bot that it would be worth it if sites were serious about stopping them. Any anti-bot security measures can be circumvented, but figuring out all the things that you have to get right probably wouldn't be worth it for very many people. However, most sites have essentially no anti-bot security measures, which makes circumvention remarkably easy . As a result, tons of people are botting and they're focusing all of their efforts on making their bots better. They're able to spend a ton of time doing it because they're already making money (and therefore don't need to spend their time making money elsewhere) and because they expect to make even more if they improve their bots. They have tons of data to use to improve their bots because their bots play tons of hands. So, they're getting better pretty quickly. If that situation continues for a sufficiently long amount of time, they'll be making enough money that it'll be worth it for them to put a ton of time and money into circumvention techniques that are currently not worth it.
This post is spot on unfortunately and I've seen it coming for several years now. The bots were big winners in the UB mid/high stakes limit games three years ago. I can only imagine what they've progressed to, fortunately Poker Stars has done a great job in deterring them so far.

Something that's interesting is that the bots are easily identifiable in limit hold-em. They play a style that is very unorthodox, very few players have a similar style to them. I think this is important because if a site like Poker Stars was notified as to who they might be, they could monitor them and likely find a way to detect them. That assumes Poker Stars trusts the person notifying them.

Ultimately, there needs to be a harsh enough penalty to deter them. To use an extreme example, let's say the owners were executed. How many would there be? Likely none. I don't think confiscating an account balance is enough of a deterrent unfortunately. We need regulators and someone willing to prosecute botters with at least the threat of jail time.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by piranha
This post is spot on unfortunately and I've seen it coming for several years now. The bots were big winners in the UB mid/high stakes limit games three years ago. I can only imagine what they've progressed to, fortunately Poker Stars has done a great job in deterring them so far.

Something that's interesting is that the bots are easily identifiable in limit hold-em. They play a style that is very unorthodox, very few players have a similar style to them. I think this is important because if a site like Poker Stars was notified as to who they might be, they could monitor them and likely find a way to detect them. That assumes Poker Stars trusts the person notifying them.

Ultimately, there needs to be a harsh enough penalty to deter them. To use an extreme example, let's say the owners were executed. How many would there be? Likely none. I don't think confiscating an account balance is enough of a deterrent unfortunately. We need regulators and someone willing to prosecute botters with at least the threat of jail time.
Public beheadings would be quite appropriate I feel. Right now, they probably just have their chat blocked for a week if caught.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-05-2011 , 08:57 PM
9-bet bluffs on the regular
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 02:59 AM
Im not sure why everyone is so concered about bots being so powerfull that they will be unbeatable in No limit. I dont doubt that computing will become more and more powerfull but poker is a much different then a game like chess where the calculations are much more difficult. What real calculations can a computer do in poker that a human cant?
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 04:28 AM
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 07:03 AM
Wait, there was congestion in 1925????
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 07:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unabridged
this would mean banning people as bots for going on good runs of strategy or not tilting enough. at that point you are better off just banning people whose winrate is too high.
having a very good strategy and being a bot is completely different, the best chess players don't get banned just because they're strategy is great.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 07:28 AM
No money in poker in 10 years, everyone is solid.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 08:09 AM
Pokerstars will celebrate its 20th birthday
It will be normal that approx half million people will be playing on stars.
There will be a SM with a guaranteed 20 Million USD$ and 4 Million to the winner.
The new world record will be set at 400.000 entries in a 1$ tourney.
The road to the 200 Billionth hand will be huuuge...

just my 2 cents
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Megatilt
Im not sure why everyone is so concered about bots being so powerfull that they will be unbeatable in No limit. I dont doubt that computing will become more and more powerfull but poker is a much different then a game like chess where the calculations are much more difficult. What real calculations can a computer do in poker that a human cant?
It doesn't even matter if in the end (let's say 10 years) they can beat even the best of players... What matters is, is that they beat most of the poker players, meaning that they have SOLID winrates. That means that they take money out from your pocket (if you beat the game) by bustoing the fish before you.

Of course it sounds hypocritical.-- I win at poker and i don't want anyone else to take the money i will take eventually.

But the fact that you can buy bots online(not winning ones yet, as i understood) means that an average Joe, who has no idea how to build something so sophisticated as a winning poker bot, has gotten the possibilty of making money in poker. It will unbalance the poker economy, if a player that is loosing suddenly can become a solid winner in poker.

Another thing is .. If botting becomes more and more of a problem, it will reveal itself to more and more people. It means that people just won't deposit their money, b/c they know some kind of robot will take it away.
If a reg wins the money from the recreational player, then that player thinks that reg was lucky or something trivial. He will still deposit, b/c he want's to play.


Bottom line is, that it's a problem b/c botting took/will take my job.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klakteuh
having a very good strategy and being a bot is completely different, the best chess players don't get banned just because they're strategy is great.
in chess for almost every position there is a best move most bots agree on and they catch you if you make the best move more % of the time than you should be expected to. it works because you can be great player and still not make the exact best move much of the time. also chess players arent interested in creating a bot that plays at or below their level and letting run 24/7 in multiple numbers, a bot like that would probably go undetected by any of their methods.

in the end why are you worried about detecting bots? because the average players are getting angry the games are dry/too much money is being pulled out of the site. why spend all the money on detection when you can just ban high winning players? from the average player's perspective the effect is just as good if not better. does it matter to them if its a poker genius or a computer that is killing the game? either way they wouldnt be invited back to the next home game (disregarding hustler skills)
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 02:53 PM
Poker
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 03:08 PM
  • Ocean card (and 8th street)
  • Super Blind
  • 5 suits. I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier. I know that the clubs are weapons of war. I know that diamonds mean money for this art. But that's not the shape of my heart. And now there are kidneys too.
  • 17 ranks: 2-9 (no 10s too many spots, no jacks can't play them anyway) Queens, Drag Queens, Kings, Pawns, Wizards, Aces, more Aces (that's right, suited aces baby), Fish, and Tworooks.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 06:35 PM
If or when poker comes back to the United States... I am sure there will be much stricter enforcement against bots. Cheating at poker would be considered a federal crime. I am not sure the average joe would be willing to go to jail over this. Not to mention have the ability to hide the bot. I am sure botting will still occur and there would be issues prosecuting foriegn players but i doubt it will be just a bunch of computers playing one another. I think the real question is how much effort the sites will put in to stop it. If they want to stop it they certainly have the funds. In chess it is pretty easy to tell if someone is using a computer program to cheat like Fritz.... In poker it would be alot less clear
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-06-2011 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Megatilt
If or when poker comes back to the United States... I am sure there will be much stricter enforcement against bots. Cheating at poker would be considered a federal crime. I am not sure the average joe would be willing to go to jail over this. Not to mention have the ability to hide the bot. I am sure botting will still occur and there would be issues prosecuting foriegn players but i doubt it will be just a bunch of computers playing one another. I think the real question is how much effort the sites will put in to stop it. If they want to stop it they certainly have the funds. In chess it is pretty easy to tell if someone is using a computer program to cheat like Fritz.... In poker it would be alot less clear
and they would have a lot of info, and there's potential to develop better software to collect more pertinent data to find cheaters than is available right now. and the best-funded sites will be able to hire experienced security from pokerstars/tilt to spread knowledge to a team as big as they want.

and if a site is gonna be run by a casino, i expect beefy security to be the norm. if a site is going to even consider 'protecting rec players' by imposing table limits, they'll certainly be putting money and effort into security to curb cheating.

all huge deterrents working hard to send botters to jail and blacklist them from all online poker sites in the US. these kind of policies would give the sites much higher turnover and save the sites huge $$$ (cheating at regulated US online poker would be wire fraud, right, even if there weren't any new laws written? they prosecute cheaters in vegas to deter others, right?), and i'm hoping that's obvious enough incentive for them to invest highly.

i mean, i know people willingly break the law for money, i've seen breaking bad, but if you're gonna try to commit a federal crime where you defraud people across state lines for big money with a computer... putting in a verified SS#, bank accounts, etc etc when you want to deposit is gonna make you feel a little worried.

Last edited by ScreaminAsian; 12-06-2011 at 07:42 PM.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-07-2011 , 12:02 AM
I am afraid that poker bots will be extremely sophisticated by then, and soaking up all the money which will make cash games unprofitable. Only the very best players will be able to withstand it; All the average winning players will get eradicated.

Everywhere there is money... there's people trying to **** with it; Look at Lederer and Ferguson.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-07-2011 , 12:04 AM
Sites will still be combating bots, and If you play on a site that isn't vigilant about stopping bots, then it's your fault for playing there IMO. Shady sites won't last, they never do. They pop up, and dry out, remember pitbull poker.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-07-2011 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turb0Licious
Sites will still be combating bots, and If you play on a site that isn't vigilant about stopping bots, then it's your fault for playing there IMO. Shady sites won't last, they never do. They pop up, and dry out, remember pitbull poker.
The rate of which the site combats bots is usually at the same rate that these sicko hackers program a loop around the system. It's a vicious circle all for money.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-07-2011 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoahSD
Depends pretty heavily on what sites choose to do about bots right now.
Bots can be stopped almost instantly...
Using simple technology like Security Tokens...
Most trading accounts have used them for years.

This is Internet Security 101...
So if sites are not even doing this freaking minimum...
It's much, much worse than you einsteins think.

It means best Bots are not some rogue operation...
But designed and run by the Casinos...
To claw back some cash from the grinders...
Or just because they can...
Because that's what Bugsy Siegel would want.

How do you think they test complex software like essence...
They simulate entire Poker Ecosystems using bots...
And run a few billion hands.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_token
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote
12-07-2011 , 01:52 AM
I guess I don't understand the security token. What's to prevent a person with the security token sitting next to their computer watching the bot (their program) play and then entering the code if need be? I understand if they were running 30 accounts, they might have a problem, or at least need to hire a lot of people.
What will poker look like in 10 years? Quote

      
m