Quote:
Originally Posted by punter11235
Can we have data from the match used to calculate the variance?
Please... The only not misleding thing to report is raw data, then you write:
MY INTEPRETATION OF THE RESULTS:
"Our arbitrary chosen p value at 95% as commonly used by our colleges indicated this and that".
It is arbitrary threshold. The term "statistically significant" is very misleading to people who don't understand statistics because they think about as it matters/it doesn't matter thing. As you can see even some professors think that way claiming "statistical tie" or what not.
Exactly. You had some assumptions before the match. Let's even make it that you didn't know anything about playing entities. Now you have 80k hands played and you can say things like:
"Such experiment, if repeated would result in humans winning this % of the time". Simple and understandable for anyone without math background.
+1
The fact that people have such a hard time understanding this shows how badly stats is taught.
Imagine you have some prior beliefs about the humans true winrate, w. After 80k hands, there is now a new distribution (posterior distribution). Crudely speaking, about 90%+ of the probability mass of this new distribution will be positive.
The professor is calling it a "tie" because (again roughly speaking) less than 95% of the probability mass is positive. However, even if it was statistically significant at 95%, the shape of the posterior distribution of the winrate would not change very much.
This is just to say that 80k hands at a 9bb/100 winrate DOES strongly suggest the humans have an edge and it is dishonest to proclaim "tie"