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Old 05-07-2015, 05:05 AM   #1201
tultfill
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by punter11235 View Post
Current consensus among chess programmers is that there is at least 200-300ELO points to go. This is way more than "10%" better w/e way you define it.
Very interesting thanks.
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Old 05-07-2015, 06:10 AM   #1202
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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No, because you calculate ev of current strategy of the bot (for both sides) and max exploit vs those. Then you subtract.
Sure. But you do it for a river-subgame with ranges calculated from the tabled preflop-to-turn strategy. However, I assume (not sure if it is actually the case, though) that the bot is already solving this very subgame to determine his river strategy - and probably also with more bet-sizes than the other streets. Any imperfections aside from the remaining bet-size abstractions would then have to come from the estimated river-rages and your method would not reveal errors in those as they are already part of the sub-game definition - for the bot as well as its river-nemesis.

So basically you are pitting a GTO-strategy against its nemesis and this - by definition - should give an exploitability of zero.

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Old 05-07-2015, 06:20 AM   #1203
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Sure. But you do it for a river-subgame with ranges calculated from the tabled preflop-to-turn strategy.
You are doing it for the whole tree obviously. From leaves to root.

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So basically you are pitting a GTO-strategy against its nemesis and this - by definition - should give an exploitability of zero.
No. You can calculate it for the whole tree going to one river at a time (depth first). The imperfections would come from not perfect preflop/flop/turn strategies and from not getting the rivers exactly (just replicate the way the bot is playing). It's easy to get rivers almost perfectly although I guess they are not doing it because it's hard to imagine some of the plays would occur no matter what the ranges were.
I mean, it really is simple I am amazed you can do a poker AI project and not measure this.
Tbh the conversation should go like that:
-"I have this Nash equilibrium estimation algorithm"
-"great, how good is it?". "I think it's pretty good! I am convinced it's great!"
-"What's the number though?"
-"Well we didn't measure but we are doing it for 4 years now!"
-F-, come back next year

Srsly.
Again, it makes 0 sense to optimize for something you can't measure. It's like trying to play high stakes poker not knowing if straight beats 3 of a kind.
This is bad but claiming anything about "pretty good estimation" while not measuring it is well... not really something you should say.

Last edited by punter11235; 05-07-2015 at 06:36 AM.
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Old 05-07-2015, 08:09 AM   #1204
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by NoMeansYes_ View Post
I think I understand why HU can be solved, but I've never seen an explanation why multiplayer games can't be. Can you describe it simply?
In a more than 2-handed game you can be colluded against, even if villains aren't cheating by revealing cards.

People can decide to play slightly too LAG when IP to hero, but slightly too tight when OOP. They might be hurting their own winrate, but at the expense of both themselves and hero. The ones who gain from this are the other players, and there's nothing hero can do about it, and there might be no strategy available to hero that doesn't lose.
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Old 05-07-2015, 09:01 AM   #1205
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Multiplayer nash equilibrium isn't unique. Simple example- 3 way rock paper scissors. Player 1 throws R,P, player 2 throws P,S, player 3 throws S,R all with 50% prob. This is a nash equilibrium. But player 1 can decide to f over player 2 or player 3 with his throw next round and so on. NE isn't that important when it doesn't even guarantee a breakeven strategy.
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Old 05-07-2015, 09:08 AM   #1206
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Also this thread is so cringe with the results oriented posts. Doug was a beast, and Jason was a failure of humanity a few days ago.

Doug was never playing 100% seriously even from the start and ppl were trashing the bot as terrible. Now they complain that Doug isn't taking this seriously, and Bjorn is the beast.

It's a high variance game, and Claudico will only get stronger.
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Old 05-07-2015, 09:38 AM   #1207
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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the correct answer was limit holdem has always been a bad game
how does this get no love?
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Old 05-07-2015, 09:51 AM   #1208
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Doug was never playing 100% seriously even from the start and ppl were trashing the bot as terrible. Now they complain that Doug isn't taking this seriously, and Bjorn is the beast.
To be fair though, if you tuned into the stream yesterday, you could see Doug visibly fatigued and uninterested in playing vs. the bot. He might not have been taking it 100% seriously from the beginning, but he was definitely a lot more serious and focused at the start of the match. I think this would happen to any high stakes player in this situation who is being significantly under-compensated for his time. Being in a casino for 2 weeks straight, playing for 10 hours a day + additional hours of study, living out of a hotel room and most of the compensation coming from just showing up.....I'm sure it was fun for the first 5-6 days, but I'll wager that they're all hating the thought of getting out of bed in the morning now and that the end can't come soon enough.
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Old 05-07-2015, 10:58 AM   #1209
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

I would say it's mostly due to him being on a downswing vs the bot and it being no longer likely that he wins the most.

Also first couple of days he was really spewy and ran insanely hot whilst justifying it by saying he was testing the bot (I distinctly remember him 2x pot cbet with 33 on like 742hh and calling a check raise, turn 3h river 3 vs bot's 44).
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Old 05-07-2015, 12:14 PM   #1210
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by punter11235 View Post
Chess is way harder than poker though and top programs are nowhere near optimal play yet (although way stronger than humans).
These are some pretty wild claims. How are you able to define what optimal play in chess is in order for you to say that "programs are nowhere near optimal play"?? Are you a chess grand master?
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Old 05-07-2015, 12:43 PM   #1211
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

It is a bold claim indeed, but from his post history he seems to know what he's talking about .

And it's not an absurd statement to me although I have played chess to a high level before so have more intuition about this.

Also idk how the end result optimal play in chess will be defined seeing as it's almost certainly a draw at gto. You say that computers have another 300 elo points to gain- but this is a pretty arbitrary way to define "distance to gto".
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Old 05-07-2015, 01:37 PM   #1212
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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how does this get no love?
Yes
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Old 05-07-2015, 01:49 PM   #1213
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Current scores?

Last edited by HH; 05-07-2015 at 01:49 PM. Reason: Pls
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Old 05-07-2015, 02:27 PM   #1214
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by Human Halo View Post
Current scores?
The link has only been posted a dozen times itt.

http://www.twitch.tv/claudico_extra
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Old 05-07-2015, 02:37 PM   #1215
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

-737k at the moment. Bjorn Li up 459k alone.
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Old 05-07-2015, 02:52 PM   #1216
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Sick sweat on whether cheet will end up positive. Rooting for him.
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Old 05-07-2015, 03:27 PM   #1217
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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I feel strange about this thing. On one hand it's clear that this thing has the potential to kill poker, to essentially solve the game and to remove any challenge or mystery. On the other hand, I feel that if that's to be so - let it be. Even though it would effect me as a pro and I might have to find something else to do. If the game can be reduced to being solved by a machine, well then maybe it's not that great of a game after all and it deserves that. Does anyone else feel like this?
Remove any challenge or mystery? So once it's solved any monkey will play an unexploitable game due to the fact an unexploitable strategy exists? So long as you don't play against bots, you'll be fine.
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Old 05-07-2015, 03:32 PM   #1218
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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how does this get no love?
pretty sure most people have learned to just ignore kirby, but yea, i liked it
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Old 05-07-2015, 03:35 PM   #1219
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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pretty sure most people have learned to just ignore kirby, but yea, i liked it
Smart, funny and vocal. Yeah, most people dislike those traits combined.
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Old 05-07-2015, 03:47 PM   #1220
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by Olaff View Post
I feel strange about this thing. On one hand it's clear that this thing has the potential to kill poker, to essentially solve the game and to remove any challenge or mystery. On the other hand, I feel that if that's to be so - let it be. Even though it would effect me as a pro and I might have to find something else to do. If the game can be reduced to being solved by a machine, well then maybe it's not that great of a game after all and it deserves that. Does anyone else feel like this?
Of course not, every game can be reduced and solved with enough computing power.
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Old 05-07-2015, 04:00 PM   #1221
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

can someone clarify the perfect/imperfect recall distinction? is imperfect recall the academic way of saying claudico doesn't have a full strategy stored and calculates its strategy on the fly?
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Old 05-07-2015, 04:25 PM   #1222
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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Originally Posted by Land O Lakes View Post
Remove any challenge or mystery? So once it's solved any monkey will play an unexploitable game due to the fact an unexploitable strategy exists? So long as you don't play against bots, you'll be fine.
It would kill the online version of any game it happened to, botting would be too hard to police effectively considering the effort which currently goes into designing strategies for a bot could go into anti-detection mechanisms instead.
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Old 05-07-2015, 04:44 PM   #1223
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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It would kill the online version of any game it happened to, botting would be too hard to police effectively considering the effort which currently goes into designing strategies for a bot could go into anti-detection mechanisms instead.
Well, it's already been doing that as it is. There were fixed-limit bots playing as high as 100/200 ten years ago (not crushing, tho). I just meant when it becomes an epidemic, y'all will have to play live.
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Old 05-07-2015, 04:46 PM   #1224
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

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There were fixed-limit bots playing as high as 100/200 ten years ago (not crushing, tho).
wait what?
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Old 05-07-2015, 04:47 PM   #1225
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

I think it needs to be pointed out that every hand starts at exactly 200 bb deep for this challenge. In a real heads up match stack depth will often be long ways from XXX bb. It is an entire dimensional reduction.
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