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Old 05-06-2015, 06:19 AM   #1151
LoneUltralisk
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

You guys are harsh.

Yes claudico has some faults, and yes it's surprising they aren't calculating exploitability.

The faults it has should be patched relatively easy. I doubt we'll need to see it play next year to know it will crush humans.
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Old 05-06-2015, 08:06 AM   #1152
restorativejustice
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by psloth View Post
http://www.twitch.tv/claudico_vs_jasonles/b/656376982 at 1h57min.

To be fair, he said "faaaiiirly even" but the "in the middle of the pack" and "4th out of 5 players" was straight bs.

Jason did very well in the interview imo (and also was winning vs claudico ), I found it funny how the CBS lady said something along "so you're the ONE human that's losing to the computer" several times.

I would be interested in watching the CBS report, so if anyone can post a link after it aired..
Thank you for that and I apologize for leaving out the word "fairly" as I just heard it live and was stunned by the "fourth" comment after it that my recollection was affected.

This event shouldn't be about beating humans so there is no shame that it cannot do that yet (to me it is about improving AI by using the test of poker), I just thought it was rather small to re-frame the Event like he did while ignoring the mirroring of hands that make ranking irrelevant and making Jason look bad when in fact his position relative to the others may largely/exclusively be due to the cards. The Prof can sell the computer any way he wants to the press, but Jason's rep paid the price for that exaggeration/mischaracterization which is indefensible.

Imagine if the Prof had said, "We have the best AI computer program in the world and yet these Pros are overall crushing it which really is a testament to their abilities and how much we still have to learn. But, the event is still not over and the computer is learning more every day so who knows how it will end."
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Old 05-06-2015, 08:38 AM   #1153
mack's
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Would be really interesting if they had 15k left for a second challenge with decent HU pros from 100-400nl.

I'd definitely bet on the bot then, especially if they lower the stacks to 100bb. And even more if the HU players could lose money. Make it 1/2 or 2/4 blinds with real money and claudico wins.
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Old 05-06-2015, 08:45 AM   #1154
Sam Ganzfried
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by punter11235 View Post
Same thoughts here.
Sam was great on the stream, answered the questions straight and is genuinely interested in what is going on and what humans think about the bot as it's clear as sky it's not perfect and there is something to be learnt.
The professors though sounds like bigger and bigger bs'er with every appearance he makes.



Again, if they knew what they are doing they would measure it or at least approximate it. You can't optimize for something you can't measure. When there is a claim about Nash equilibrium or optimal play then "give me the number" follows. If the numbers are not given the claim is worthless. It's as simple as that really.
You can have all your academic papers and all your magical theories, just write some code to measure the very thing you try to optimize for.
Honestly, we had just assumed computing exploitability is hard, since we use imperfect-recall abstractions and there aren't any known approaches for computing best responses in imperfect-recall games. Your earlier post suggested maybe we could still bound exploitability by computing a best response to our strategy in a different abstraction that had perfect recall (and probably just one bet size). It's not clear to me if it's doable, and what the scientific value is of computing a bound on our exploitability like this. When I have some actual time (i.e., after I have my diploma in hand) I'll think about it some more and get back to you.
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Old 05-06-2015, 08:47 AM   #1155
Sam Ganzfried
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

I'm heading in today. Post some questions that you want me to ask the players on twitch and I'll ask as many as I can.
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Old 05-06-2015, 08:50 AM   #1156
Sam Ganzfried
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by owster View Post
I might be stupid but I don't get how the bot can be expected to improve its play to an extent that it would be notable during the competition? I thought the way it came up with its strategy was through brute force trial and error and in that aspect the relatively few hands played here won't be of much significance.

I've seen Sam post about "algorithm tweaks" or something like that they're doing in between sessions. What could such tweaks consist of? I assume it has nothing to do with directives such as "calling an overbet here is bad", lol.
Did I say there were tweaks?
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Old 05-06-2015, 09:14 AM   #1157
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Would love to know how far wcg thinks he is from a perfect gto strat, in terms of winrate..
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Old 05-06-2015, 09:15 AM   #1158
owster
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Ganzfried View Post
Did I say there were tweaks?
Apparently you did not, I apologize, I know you hate people attributing quotes to you that wasn't yours . I could have swore one developer was in this thread stating something to that extent though.

I found this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deuce2High View Post
A developer was in twitch for a few minutes.

Noambrown: Claudico developer here. I have a few free moments so I'm happy
Noambrown: hi
Knorrli: yo noam, does claudico consider timing tells?
Noambrown: It doesn't consider timing tells; we told the pros this
Noambrown: We didn't want them to take 3 minutes every hand... like us
Nosedoto: NoamBrown, can you speed up the river decisions with like memcached or something?
Noambrown: We have a special process that computes a strategy for the river on the fly. It takes a while to solve, up to 3 mins
Alall4: is the bot trying to play gto type strategy like cepheus or it is it developing its strategy around something else
Noambrown: We don't want to give too much of the bot away, but we do use regret minimization algorithms, as well as some other things thrown in the mix
Noambrown: Claudico decided on the 10% river pot size. I don't have a say in
Noambrown: There's 2 students on the team
Noambrown: There's no neural net going on, but you should expect the bot to change
Noambrown: It will be playing differently tomorrow
Noambrown: We compute the strategy on about 2K cores and about 5 TB of memory. The river is computed on 64 cores and 512 GB memory
Noambrown: The strategy was computed over months.
Noambrown: I'm pretty happy with how it's doing so far. There's clear weaknesses but I think it will improve
Noambrown: Bots can play multi table but they aren't very good at it
Encryption: Some sort of grant/funing for this project?
Noambrown: They're using hotkeys to change the numbers.
Noambrown: The pros get the money either way, and we raised it through sponsors
So my question still remains I guess, why would the bot play different from one day to another if I'm right in my assumption that its strategy is based on previous hands played is correct since the hands played during the span of one day should be like a drop in the ocean.
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Old 05-06-2015, 09:49 AM   #1159
restorativejustice
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Ganzfried View Post
I'm heading in today. Post some questions that you want me to ask the players on twitch and I'll ask as many as I can.
Questions for player:

What tactics used in the event were applied by you specifically because you thought they would be more successful from the get-go against a bot than a good human player?

Are you intentionally making less-than-optimal strategy/style choices because you are on stream and know future human competitors are watching how you play?


Thanks.
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Old 05-06-2015, 10:02 AM   #1160
derZonk
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Ask them what part of their winrate against the bot comes from the exploitative adjustments they have made during the match.

Thank you Sam.
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Old 05-06-2015, 10:07 AM   #1161
mack's
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

You remove bjorn li(asian bot) from current stats

and the bot's doing pretty amazing.. 17k vs dong and only losing 6stacks is impressive. If they were playing 100nl online with rake the bot dong+doug+jason would be breakeven right now vs the bot
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Old 05-06-2015, 10:19 AM   #1162
mcb08
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by mack's View Post
You remove bjorn li(asian bot) from current stats

and the bot's doing pretty amazing.. 17k vs dong and only losing 6stacks is impressive. If they were playing 100nl online with rake the bot dong+doug+jason would be breakeven right now vs the bot
Am I missing something? I have Dong + WCG + Cheet up ~ 207K
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Old 05-06-2015, 10:38 AM   #1163
restorativejustice
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcb08 View Post
Am I missing something? I have Dong + WCG + Cheet up ~ 207K
Removing anyone when the hands are "mirrored" is less than pointless.

He seems to be trolling and have a hate-on for Jason.
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Old 05-06-2015, 10:51 AM   #1164
Sam Ganzfried
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by owster View Post
Apparently you did not, I apologize, I know you hate people attributing quotes to you that wasn't yours . I could have swore one developer was in this thread stating something to that extent though.

I found this:



So my question still remains I guess, why would the bot play different from one day to another if I'm right in my assumption that its strategy is based on previous hands played is correct since the hands played during the span of one day should be like a drop in the ocean.
No strat until after Friday bro
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Old 05-06-2015, 12:13 PM   #1165
owster
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Ganzfried View Post
No strat until after Friday bro
Got ya
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Old 05-06-2015, 12:27 PM   #1166
mack's
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by restorativejustice View Post
Removing anyone when the hands are "mirrored" is less than pointless.

He seems to be trolling and have a hate-on for Jason.
I've always loved the world of nerds, when you're around them anyone with any kind of opinion is a troll or a bully.

If you factor in rake, those 3 put together are breakeven at any stake under 400nl. Bjorn is the only one doing decent against the bot. 17k hand is a pretty decent sample when you factor in that those guys are the top of the pool.

Yet people are still saying that claudico is a clear failure when a lot of 200 and under reg are making good money beating on other regs while paying a lot of rake. Top highstakers would be losing/breaking even vs this bot in the same situation. The truth is that claudico is already a ton better than almost every reg.
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Old 05-06-2015, 12:41 PM   #1167
noncarborundum
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Doug's down over 100k today through 400 hands, and appears to be playing some disinterested poker. Fatigue looks to be a factor.
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Old 05-06-2015, 12:46 PM   #1168
restorativejustice
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by mack's View Post
I've always loved the world of nerds, when you're around them anyone with any kind of opinion is a troll or a bully.

If you factor in rake, those 3 put together are breakeven at any stake under 400nl. Bjorn is the only one doing decent against the bot. 17k hand is a pretty decent sample when you factor in that those guys are the top of the pool.

Yet people are still saying that claudico is a clear failure when a lot of 200 and under reg are making good money beating on other regs while paying a lot of rake. Top highstakers would be losing/breaking even vs this bot in the same situation. The truth is that claudico is already a ton better than almost every reg.
Do you know what the rake is at "highstakes" relative to the stakes? Why would "top highstakers" drop down to be in the "same situation" as the 200 and under regs you reference to play this bot? If you are trying to say they would not be winning as much if they were also paying rake, well, duh.

As for the world of nerds, your desire to group players to support a point does not make you a troll or bully to them; simply, misguided.

The mirroring of hands IS significant which is why, if you want to group players to draw a conclusion, you would look at the grouping of Bjorn and Dong who are playing mirrored hands. Both players are winning quite a bit last I looked with the computer playing each others' hands. Now if the bot is able to end up on both Doug and Jason then I would consider that a significant achievement and one that will be noticed by those in the world of poker and AI alike.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:10 PM   #1169
mack's
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

I don't see how its so hard to understand that if highstakes regs can't beat this bot at lower stakes online, its a pretty amazing bot.

98% of people living from poker are paying high rakes so making comparisons with raked environment is a must to gauge the quality of the bot.
if you drop a top hu pro vs a 100nl hu player @ 100nl. The top pro would win a decent ammount long-term and now they are breaking even vs claudico if you factor in the same rake.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:11 PM   #1170
moki
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by punter11235 View Post
Same thoughts here.
Sam was great on the stream, answered the questions straight and is genuinely interested in what is going on and what humans think about the bot as it's clear as sky it's not perfect and there is something to be learnt.
The professors though sounds like bigger and bigger bs'er with every appearance he makes.
In fairness, the professor is likely suffering from something that many professors are afflicted with early in their career: tenuritis. This manifests itself with all manner of inexplicable symptoms, including chronic arrogance.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:22 PM   #1171
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by restorativejustice View Post
Now if the bot is able to end up on both Doug and Jason then I would consider that a significant achievement and one that will be noticed by those in the world of poker and AI alike.
Given how things are going there is a slight chance that Claudico will at least reach a statistical tie in the Doug&Jason-part of the competition.

I'm sure Claudico will improve alot in a couple of years and come back stronger. Which makes me happy that I'm a 6-max player.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:35 PM   #1172
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Doug really seems tired and a bit in idc mode and just wants it to be over. Folding 3k hands should be -225k fwiw . He had periods were he was just rushing through hands on the first days, too, but I feel like his attitude has really changed (starting yesterday).

Nice interviews with Dong and Jason, Sam. Much more enjoyable than muted Doug/Bjorn streams.

@cheet
hand #207 7s6s vs AcQc where claudico calls your chk/jam on Jc8s4s in a 4bet pot you would've rivered the straight flush lol, turn Qo.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:39 PM   #1173
Nit Bag
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

The four players in this contest are representing poker very well, all bright and articulate as opposed to the stereotypical poker player. This is good for poker. Poker is a game of skill and needs to differentiate itself from games of pure chance, this is helping to make that distinction to the general public.

The object of this AI experiment, as I understand it,is to program the computer to be able to teach itself how to play poker in NE not to program specific human divined strategies to be the best poker player. This is an important distinction yet I'm getting mixed messages from the AI team about their input in to the program regarding strategy. As I understand it the whole idea is for the computer, by itself, to learn how to solve complex game theory to be used in other areas not to specifically program strat.

So if NE is the aim of the computer it should be apparent there are many spots where it is obviously not in NE. Does the AI team not see this? They seem too focused on results instead of analyzing and seeing where Claudico is relative to NE. I believe Claudico is a very good HU player, but the best HU player may not be anywhere close to NE, nor should they.
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Old 05-06-2015, 01:49 PM   #1174
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshua View Post
Given how things are going there is a slight chance that Claudico will at least reach a statistical tie in the Doug&Jason-part of the competition.
At this point, I think there is a much bigger than slight chance that Claudico gets a statistical tie vs Doug and Jason.
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Old 05-06-2015, 03:34 PM   #1175
AdamSchwartz
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Re: WCGRider, Dong Kim, Jason Les and Bjorn Li to play against a new HU bot

Update on the totals please!
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