Quote:
Originally Posted by Nit Bag
Won't the equity chops and mirrored hands be reflected in actual St Dev observed in 80K hands without need for adjustment?
With 80k hands, the observed variance probably should be used, rather than just assuming it's the same as the variance of human play. Same argument for directly including the effects of duplicate and equity chops, rather than just assuming it's around 25% for duplicate and ...?% for all-in equity. Has anyone been crazy enough to transcribe all of the hands from stream?
I'd have guessed a standard deviation of around 16-18 big blinds/hand (sorry about units!) with all-in equity: good bot vs bot play in the last computer poker competition dropped down under 20 IIRC, and some of our own tests are sitting in that range. Duplicate seems to give around a 25% reduction in the standard deviation for no-limit. That would give an estimated standard deviation of 0.083 big blinds/hand for average winnings over 80k duplicate hands.
I'd have liked a stronger argument than "It's a tie!"
Edit: And there's some of the actual data. Good!
Suprisingly high values. Either duplicate variance not being computed correctly (I hope not!), or duplicate wasn't giving 25% reduction, or the raw money variance was all the way up around 20 big blinds / hand. Or some combination.