Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
I'm going to post what Matt Marinelli posted on his twitter (#1 online cash game player in America).
He simulated 6 bots at 0 rake to see the discrepancies in winrates over certain hand periods. Here are the results.
This means you could play 500k hands and break even over that time and you wouldn't know if you were a 6.5bb winner or -6.5bb loser
This is why Thought Process>Winrate.
Discuss.
Many, many years ago when Full Tilt was a legitimate thing and Poker Tracker was accepted as normal. I had a 300,000 - 500,000 hand plateau where I was literally a breakeven player after normally crushing the games.
Looking at poker tracker it was clear. Over that range of hands, I was a net negative at playing flopped sets.
I wasn't stupid. It wasn't like I was regularly blasting off money on mono suit boards. It just seemed that everytime I flopped a set, I would lose to a bigger set or the flush/straight draw would chase and get there.
TDLR, I was extremely unlucky whenever i flopped a set. For almost 500k hands. For 6+ months I lost more than I won when flopping a set.
It happens.
Luckily i was crushing the games enough that I was breaking even otherwise even though I couldn't win with a set.
The whole episode made me realize just how much luck plays a part in this game.
I often think that there is a player who is a crusher in poker. They might be an elite level thinking who is great at reading their opponents and adjusting to them, yet he is a breakeven to middling player simply because he is literally the unluckiest player in poker.
I feel sorry for that guy.