This thread is going into some topics in which I was the pioneer. For instance, when I first began to write about this stuff back in the 1980s, I'm sure only a handful of players even knew what a standard deviation was, less how to estimate it (and someone else was the one who showed me the derivation for the maximum likelihood estimator of the standard deviation and they are given credit in my book).

Also, I think, even to this day, that I'm the only one who has addressed in writing the relationship between the expectation and the standard deviation. (Perhaps someone in some video has done this but I'm not aware of it.) And this stuff is very important to a successful poker player / gambler.

Mason

Do you still play cards?

It depends if we’re talking about variance in terms of the mathematical variable, and how close you can expect to run to your real EV over your career (in which case online NLHE >> live PLO)


Or what people often call lowering variance to mean having less and smaller periods of downswing, then you are right having a greater edge is a big factor

Standard deviation is not directly correlated to expected valu.

It's just as your EV goes up EV/(stand dev) goes down, so it has less relative effect on your winnings.

Yes I meant variance in the colloquial sense related to up- and down-swings, not the mathematical term. Thanks.

That's an ad hominem attack and strawman. The reality is he specifically said in 100 hours (3500 hands) you would be "highly probable" to win. He didn't say what the winrate or std dev was, so I picked reasonable figures for fullring (10bb/100 winrate and 70 bb/100 std dev). Clearly, his statement was wrong, because even with a higher winrate and lower std dev, it still cannot reasonably be described as "highly probable".

Too bad that on 2p2 it's not really about good faith arguments, as you guys have proved. I think I will take Mason's advice and leave this forum, seeing as it's kind embarrassing for me to even associate with you guys.

Doesn’t EV/(sd) go up if your EV goes up and the sd stays approximately the same?

Mason

DDP, I am not going to pretend to understand how David is getting a standard deviation of 200. But is that even possible? I have never heard of a strong player with a standard deviation much over 120.

I suppose they could be playing super deep with each other in the sim. And bots are obviously infinitely ballsier than humans when deep. But still, I find it surprising. 200 is crazy high even for PLO.

Feel like 180 is kind of standard for 6max PLO?

Yes. Sd/ev is better measurement of how much your ev is effectd by variance.

prob happens in some deep live games, online not so much

I think that is good of you.

I uploaded a short 10min clip of me coaching using MDA. Check it out if you have some time.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...ching-1833047/

Dumbest post of 2024

His example overstates the probability of facing such an discrepancy. If you to pokerdope, you see that the gap between your worse and best numbers is smaller. Also, yeah, over a small sample, thought process is a better indicator than your actual win rate, but who's going to judge how good your thought process is? Not you, if you are a newb.

As your EV goes up, the less likely you are to come out a loser from that game. Variance can still significantly boost or diminish your profits though.

Thank you for Shilling your book...then adds with Happy Easter? LOL

What is wrong with people. Haven't been back to the forums in years but I see nothing has changed. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but Mason was basically one of the FOUNDERS of the entire forum we enjoy. He literally created many of the learning theories that have been around for years and you take it as shilling as he still is giving back to the community in the forums?

Drinkk the hatorade much?

Look who the shill is now LOL

I didn't read the thread, as it is already too big, so if this was argued already, I'm sorry.

I think it is a completely different beast to evaluate a bot, playing versus his fellow bots playing the same strategy (I assume this was the case right?), where we know for certain that his true EV is 0 bb/100, than evaluating a reg, hopefully playing a winning strategy, versus human players, and with some sort of normal game selection, who gets a winrate of, let's say, 5 bb/100 over 300k hands.

For the reg, there are statistical tools for you to determine what are the odds of him being a 5 bb/100, or being a winner, or even being a crusher, given the observed winrate, all the while you will never know for sure his true winrate.

For the bot playing vs bots, you know his true winrate from the beginning, and going over observed winrates is just an exercise on seeing what lucky/unlucky looks like. Futile exercise, and a waste of time, if you ask my opinion about it.

jjj

It is not so much zero EV that would cause standard deviations to be bigger than normal but rather the GTO style of play (eg lots of raise bluffs and pushing small edges) that would do it.

Did you read the title of the thread at least?

Also regarding your comment I think you’re missing the point, for all intents and purposes those numbers for the bots can be extrapolated and you can exchange bots for absolute crushers who play perfectly massive winning poker even vs other crushers. Still over 500k hands, there’s a 13bb/100 discrepancy between the most and least lucky respectively.

It’s far more frightening for a live player imho. 500k hands is 8 hours a day, 7 days a week, for 365 days in a row.

No, it isn't, it's worse. Assuming 30 hands an hour, a live player needs to play 16,000 hours.

I could have read this last page at least, and I didn't, so my apologies.

Yes, I assume this is very likely the case for the nosebleed crushers when they reg battle.

Do you think any crusher would play live if their only option was to reg battle with other crushers for the chance of, maybe, some random whale sit down eventually? All of this while playing what, 25 hands/hour?

Yeah you’re right of course, because I’m a genius I did 25x8x7x”365” instead of 52.

So actually a live player only plays 500k hands about every 7 years, wtf????? No wonder they suck lol.