Quote:
Originally Posted by charlesChickens
ItÂ’s why you should choose a lower variance format (online NLHE cash being one of the best in this aspect) and plan ahead to put in good amount of volume if you donÂ’t want the results of your career to be massively decided by luck
The lowest variance format is the one in which your skill edge is the greatest compared to your opponents', regardless of game type. Variance is a function of winrate which is a reflection of skill gap (in general). This assumes a game in which starting hand selection has a meaningful role in your chance of winning.
In my experience, live PLO (4 or 5) is probably lower variance than online NLHE simply because the skill gap between the better pros and the average recs is much wider and more than makes up for the relative closeness of preflop equities. One factor that contributes to this disparity in skill is the lack of study resources.
In this vein, the thread title obviously assumes similar skill among opponents. As the skill gap widens, luck becomes a much less important factor over both short and long term. For example, a skilled pro may not have the best hand at showdown in a given hand but may get his or her opponent to fold a better hand using their knowledge of blockers or ranges. A strong pro may lose a few 60/40s or 70/30s over a few sessions but over time getting it in ahead versus the lesser opponent will net positive for their bottom line.
Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 04-02-2024 at 03:34 PM.