Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
"Winning is just a bit more probable when playing well" providing we're only thinking in terms of short sessions (perhaps 4 hours or less). But if we're thinking in terms of a longer length of time (perhaps 100 hours of live play) and you play well compared to the other players then being ahead becomes highly probable.
Mason
100 hours of live play is nothing.
100 hours of live play x 35 hands/hour (generous, assumes fast game) equals 3500 hands.
Let's again be generous and say you're a fairly loose/aggressive player who plays 25% of hands.
That means you're playing less than 900 hands total.
Out of those most will be small pots where you're gaining or losing a small number of BB.
Maybe 10% of those > 900 hands will be large all-in type pots that will have the greatest effect on your winrate.
So we're talking less than 100 large all-in type pots.
I don't know how you define "highly probable," but over such a small sample your results will be all over the place. Many of those hands will likely be "coolers," hands that basically play themselves: AA vs. KK with the money going in preflop, set over set, etc.
If you're really good MAYBE you can average 60% equity in your all-in pots, but the short-term variance will still be the largest factor determining how you do.