View - Phil Ivey will make a deep run in this Main Event *official sweat thread* - Page 9 - Poker News

Who do you want to escrow? Seems a little silly to escrow for this small of an amount. I've paid multiple people on this site before from bets, and have sent money a few different times to buy pieces of people and never had any problems.

Im just going to unbook our bet. Makes no sense that youre accepting 4:1 when you could easily get action at even odds for this bet.

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07-11-2014 , 05:06 PM

#203

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

I don't think I could get action at even money. He still has to survive 575 more eliminations

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07-11-2014 , 05:08 PM

#204

fml95

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,216

Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

I don't think I could get action at even money. He still has to survive 575 more eliminations

you could have 100% got even money. People were making this bet at even money on day 2

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07-11-2014 , 05:13 PM

#205

Eskaborr

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,054

How much action is left ben?

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07-11-2014 , 05:14 PM

#206

SleightOfJam

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,375

want to book another $100. so my $200 to your $800? quote to confirm

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07-11-2014 , 05:15 PM

#207

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

Well then I guess I'm just a prop bet fish.

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07-11-2014 , 05:16 PM

#208

Eskaborr

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,054

ill take rest action quote to confirm

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07-11-2014 , 05:16 PM

#209

SwoopAE

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I would book 100 too but kinda want references or a link to you paying out first as you're offering suspiciously good odds even at 4-1

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07-11-2014 , 05:18 PM

#210

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

No more action available. Offer was only good for 5 minutes. Only booked action was the slieghtofjam for $100. Would have taken more action but someone tapped on the fish tank.

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07-11-2014 , 05:19 PM

#211

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

I didn't think the odds were that far off. But apparently I'm an idiot for offering that good of odds.

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07-11-2014 , 05:21 PM

#212

chopsy2

banned

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,139

Is that really you bentaylor?

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07-11-2014 , 05:22 PM

#213

Donk Quixote

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,311

Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

I didn't think the odds were that far off. But apparently I'm an idiot for offering that good of odds.

Well think about it though, if everyone left was the same skill level and the same chip stack, they would all have about a 15% chance of making the top 100. You're betting that the best player in the world with one of the biggest stacks in the tournament has less than a 20% chance.

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07-11-2014 , 05:24 PM

#214

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

Once I thought about it 5-1 was way high, and 4-1 seemed a little high but not beyond reason I don't think. Keep offering bets people, I need some action!

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07-11-2014 , 05:27 PM

#215

xalas

◄Valar Morghulis►

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,666

Phil Ivey has gone from 72nd 522,500 to 38th place 712,000 (142 bb)
2500/5000 Ante: 500
Players remaining: 698

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07-11-2014 , 05:42 PM

#216

ArcadianSky

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,386

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donk Quixote

Well think about it though, if everyone left was the same skill level and the same chip stack, they would all have about a 15% chance of making the top 100. You're betting that the best player in the world with one of the biggest stacks in the tournament has less than a 20% chance.

This.

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07-11-2014 , 05:43 PM

#217

pokertwoplustwolover

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old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

If anyone wants to give me 10-1 I'll put up $100 saying phil final tables

Last edited by pokertwoplustwolover; 07-11-2014 at 05:50 PM.

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07-11-2014 , 05:53 PM

#218

ArcadianSky

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

If anyone wants to give me 10-1 I'll put up $100 saying phil final tables

lol
if you think 10-1 is a good enough price for him to final table, how can you possibly post 4 to 1 against him making top 100? you're grossly over-estimating the variables in one bet, and under-estimating it in another.

"he doesn't finish in the top 100 20% of the time...but he'll definitely final table 9% of the time"

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07-11-2014 , 05:54 PM

#219

pokertwoplustwolover

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old hand

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So what's a fair price to bet on him final tabling

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07-11-2014 , 05:57 PM

#220

ArcadianSky

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,386

Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

So what's a fair price to bet on him final tabling

Eh. I'm not saying 10-1 is bad on your end necessarily. Ha. But given your perception/evaluation, you can't propose those two bets without one of them being bad in your own mind. You can't think he's worse than 20% to make top 100 and better than 9% to final table in the same thought imo.

I also don't want to ruin anyone's action if they want to take you on either.

Last edited by ArcadianSky; 07-11-2014 at 06:04 PM.

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07-11-2014 , 06:03 PM

#221

4_chainz

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grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 604

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I would book 100 too but kinda want references or a link to you paying out first as you're offering suspiciously good odds even at 4-1

Met Ben Taylor in Vegas a few weeks ago. Kid likes to degen . I wouldn't be nervous about him paying out fwiw. From what I saw he has a little gambol in him

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07-11-2014 , 06:04 PM

#222

R*R

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I wish I was Einstein

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 12,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by SleightOfJam

bentaylor you're giving 4-1 on ivey not making top 100 right?

so if i want ivey to make the top 100 for $100, i'm risking $100 to your $400?

Hey Ben. Fellow Lvl'er wanting a sweat.

I will do same bet as SleightofJam. $100 to you if Ivey is 101 or worst. $400 to me if Ivey is 100 or better.

Typed "booked" by 3:20 pm PST if you want to do this.

Last edited by R*R; 07-11-2014 at 06:14 PM. Reason: .

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07-11-2014 , 06:09 PM

#223

synth_floyd

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805k now. 24th according to the pokernews chip count page.

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07-11-2014 , 06:20 PM

#224

rubbertoe

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centurion

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 119

Remember that amateurs play differently against guys like Ivey. He is going to get chips from people that these guys normally wouldn't give away, because they have this perception of him from tv. And he will use that.

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07-11-2014 , 06:20 PM

#225

pokertwoplustwolover

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old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

Quote:

Originally Posted by R*R

Hey Ben. Fellow Lvl'er wanting a sweat.

I will do same bet as SleightofJam. $100 to you if Ivey is 101 or worst. $400 to me if Ivey is 100 or better.

Typed "booked" by 3:20 pm PST if you want to do this.

No more action on that bet

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