View - Phil Ivey will make a deep run in this Main Event *official sweat thread* - Page 7 - Poker News

I'll do it at 1-1 odds.

$100-$100

Still a VERY long way to go. He still has to outlast 1700 people. One bad cooler or bad run and he can easily bust out fast.

Booked

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07-11-2014 , 12:36 AM

#152

pokertwoplustwolover

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,630

Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

Booked

Pm me to confirm we are Booked

Quote

07-11-2014 , 12:50 AM

#153

FreakShow

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 364

Forgive me if already mentioned.

Ivey vs Paul Pierce Heads-up = Moneymaker Poker Explosion x 1.2 Trillion X Infinite!

Bill Simmons? Ivey? ESPN/Sportscenter?

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07-11-2014 , 01:12 AM

#154

MicroRoller

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by bighusla

Bro change your avatar it's creeping me out, no offence. (srs)

whew... thought I was the only one.

technical issues with photo make it very unflattering. Lighting, shadows, angle, etc.

Quote

07-11-2014 , 01:13 AM

#155

ArcadianSky

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,386

Quote:

Originally Posted by bentaylor1988

Pm me to confirm we are Booked

Creepiest avatar ever itt

"It puts the lotion on it's skin"

Quote

07-11-2014 , 02:35 AM

#156

SleightOfJam

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by timex

Received $100 from this thread as well as 3k from a friend- open to up to $2900 more action

is ivey to win 150/1 or 50/1?

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07-11-2014 , 03:11 AM

#157

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,847

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcadianSky

Creepiest avatar ever itt

"It puts the lotion on it's skin"

Spoiler:

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07-11-2014 , 03:41 AM

#158

GuessWhat21

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreakShow

Ivey vs Paul Pierce Heads-up = Moneymaker Poker Explosion x 1.2 Trillion X Infinite!

Like x 100. But
Sigh "The Truth" Pierce is out but it was a good run. Moved all in with A4 vs AJ On AJ364. c/c, c/c then pushed all in on otr.

Ivey sitting on about what he began the day with around ~550K

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcadianSky

Creepiest avatar ever itt

"It puts the lotion on it's skin"

LOL(sorry) Yeah, its not a flattering pic at all bro. That stare is pure creeper. The camera also adds 10 lbs, and two black eyes apperently. Nothing proper angles can't fix though, in most cases.

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07-11-2014 , 05:13 AM

#159

smashed you bro

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 210

Quote:

Originally Posted by lwlee

When was the latest time a day leader made it to final table? Usually the day leaders flame out by the end.

None of those leaders were Phil Ivey. In fact, not many of them have been respected pros.

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07-11-2014 , 07:05 AM

#160

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,781

Quote:

Originally Posted by xalas

think he is only scamming himself

Have you thought this through
He is the chip leader with 505,000 with 1,864 players remaining
693 of them will cash.
Avg chip stack ~107,000
Current Level: 10 with Blinds @ 600/1200 Ante: 200

Again out of the 55 cashes at the WSOP he's final tabled 31 of them and won 10
I think it's more likely than not he'll make that top 100 with a deep stack blind structure.

There is much less variance in deep stack tourneys esp with a skilled post-flop player with the chip lead.

Would you bet against Ivey making the top 100 at ~even money?

The flaw with this logic is that in a tournament with a smaller number of entries than the main event, upon cashing one is a lot closer to the final table or the victory than when playing in the main event. So at the money bubble in this main event he isn't an 18.2 percent chance to win outright even though he might have that record when the money bubble means a smaller number of people are left.

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07-11-2014 , 08:30 AM

#161

tzwien

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,267

I would have bet my net worth against Ivey making the top 100 for even money.

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07-11-2014 , 09:23 AM

#162

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

yeah its easy to say now he had a bit of a slow day, but top 100 is an absurd run in the main event, despite a good day 2 c/l

seeing the conversion % of top 5 day 1 and day 2 stacks of making top 100 would be interesting

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07-11-2014 , 10:08 AM

#163

timex

Bonafide 9

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,886

Quote:

Originally Posted by SleightOfJam

is ivey to win 150/1 or 50/1?

I will either bet $1 of my money to win $150 of your money if he wins

Or I will bet $50 of my money to win $1 of your money if he doesn't win

Quote

07-11-2014 , 10:21 AM

#164

SuperDuperTilt

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 338

Finishing in the top 100 would be awesome, and there is still a ton of action to go down. Once the bubble bursts, in think he will start making moves. Unless, he catching hands there is no point in attacking stacks, and ESPN is just going to edit it for highlights, n he knows it.

Quote

07-11-2014 , 11:08 AM

#165

kopthat7

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 99

Quote:

Originally Posted by timex

I will either bet $1 of my money to win $150 of your money if he wins

Or I will bet $50 of my money to win $1 of your money if he doesn't win

mike i sent you 100.

please confirm you recieved.

thx

Quote

07-11-2014 , 11:17 AM

#166

Felt Mountain

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 587

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Detonator

Ivey thou

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07-11-2014 , 11:18 AM

#167

burbs

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 209

Quote:

Originally Posted by timex

I will either bet $1 of my money to win $150 of your money if he wins

Or I will bet $50 of my money to win $1 of your money if he doesn't win

wat?

you're offering $50 to $1 for those that want to back him, but you then ask $150 to $1 to back him yourself?

Quote

07-11-2014 , 11:24 AM

#168

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,781

Quote:

Originally Posted by burbs

wat?

you're offering $50 to $1 for those that want to back him, but you then ask $150 to $1 to back him yourself?

You don't need to take either. Most people aren't offering two prices at all so you could make the same criticism of them, only more so.

Quote

07-11-2014 , 11:32 AM

#169

timex

Bonafide 9

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,886

Quote:

Originally Posted by kopthat7

mike i sent you 100.

please confirm you recieved.

thx

Got it

Quote

07-11-2014 , 12:14 PM

#170

burbs

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 209

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

You don't need to take either. Most people aren't offering two prices at all so you could make the same criticism of them, only more so.

I know you don't need to take either but asking $150 to 1 but only offering $50 to 1 for the same bet is just o_0

Quote

07-11-2014 , 12:31 PM

#171

Wackabrew

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 59

Quote:

Originally Posted by burbs

I know you don't need to take either but asking $150 to 1 but only offering $50 to 1 for the same bet is just o_0

The vig on -15000/5000 is actually really low

Quote

07-11-2014 , 01:15 PM

#172

Eponymous

Photoshop Comic Genius

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,574

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperDuperTilt

Once the bubble bursts, in think he will start making moves. Unless, he catching hands there is no point in attacking stacks, and ESPN is just going to edit it for highlights, n he knows it.

I don't really play tournaments, but why would he make more moves after the bubble bursts? Making the money isn't important to him, but it is to many others, so it seems his moves would get more tight folds before the bubble bursts than after.

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07-11-2014 , 01:17 PM

#173

Herbbb

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 637

Think Ivey will be exploiting tight players close to bubble rather than stepping it up post bubble

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07-11-2014 , 01:19 PM

#174

cash mahne

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 7,538

Ivey is chip leader at his starting table today. Being close to the bubble I expect him to run over the table for a while

Quote

07-11-2014 , 01:20 PM

#175

xalas

◄Valar Morghulis►

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,666

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

The flaw with this logic is that in a tournament with a smaller number of entries than the main event, upon cashing one is a lot closer to the final table or the victory than when playing in the main event. So at the money bubble in this main event he isn't an 18.2 percent chance to win outright even though he might have that record when the money bubble means a smaller number of people are left.

I take your point about the field size of the FTs/bracelets he won. I still believe that with a flat tournament structure he has a good change to making a deep run but his odds of doing so have obviously dropped.

I excepted him to keep his growth around average for day 3 (not that he would keep the lead but stay in the top 20-30) but was stagnated through out the day.

for his first 3 days
Entries: 6,683 buy-in 10k ($9,400+$600) for chips 30k, total prize pool $62,820,200, total chips in play 200,490,000
1. 2nd 187,025 end of day 1c
2. 1st 505,500 end of day 2c
3. 72nd 522,500 end of day 3 of 746 remaining, avg chip stack 268,753
4. ? (bubble breaks today)

Ivey had an outstanding start for his first 2 days better then when he final tabled the ME in 2009 at the end of Day 3 he was 148th with 371,000 with a similar starting field size of 6,494. But of course that doesn't mean he'll have a similar experience.

Liked by:

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