I moved to Michigan in 2022 to play online for a living. My first year as a pro was successful (see graph mostly 30/50 NL with some 100NL). Total profit after rakeback/rewards plus some minor MTT scores was almost $38K. Unfortunately living expenses, combined with lower win rate, tougher games, and admittedly probably not playing as well as 2022, have been killing my bankroll ... so I have been doing gig work and playing on the side while looking for a full time job.



The main reason for moving to Michigan was because of all the recreational players on PokerStars. There are still a lot of recreational players, but since the merge things are definitely more difficult. The ratio of regulars to recreational players is worse than before. Things seem to have gotten a little better in 2024 in that regard, but still not as good as when PokerStars MI/NJ were separate. I'm a very strong proponent of the theory ring fencing is healthier for cash games. Regs have more opportunity to win, recs are more likely to have a WR due to winning/breaking even against other recs, or just lose more slowly due to less regs to contend with. Perhaps this effect will be lessened when other new states come on (hopefully) or remain about the same (next best case scenario ...).

One thing I've always known is that game selection is really important - because it becomes much easier to win. As time goes on, and the games get even harder, I believe the most important skill is the ability to beat other regulars.

More people are becoming skilled, and if you want to succeed in the long run - I believe you need to be able to beat standard regs pretty soundly. You can't be floundering and not knowing what to do in common spots that regs are going to put you in - especially the ones who are really aggressive and 3bet at or above GTO frequencies. One other thing I've learned (the hard way) is online poker should not be your sole source of income unless you are able to reliably beat 100NL+ , probably 200NL over a big sample ... and have several months of expenses. I am certain that I can soundly beat 100NL on PokerStars MI/NJ since there are still lots of recs ... but due to living expenses ... I haven't had the bankroll necessary (considering I'm also living out of the roll) to put in any serious volume at these limits. 30NL / 50NL are not going to cut it. 50z, possibly - but that's not available yet on Stars US. Game selection is likely become very difficult as players are getting better at an increasingly fast pace - so better to just be able to beat practically anyone.

Something I learned a long time ago (when I first started poker) was bankroll management. Common wisdom was 20 buy ins for whatever limit or 100 if you play for a living. I have followed these since I started. I think these are ok starting guidelines for a new player (with the caveat a new player should not even attempt to play for a living). That being said, I think the 20 buy in rule is horrible if you have a job and your goal is to move up in stakes aggressively.

A better plan is 10 buy ins, and drop down to the last stake if you go under 8 buy ins. Since you are dropping in stakes when things go bad, your risk of ruin is reduced a lot if you're actually a winning player, but you're not languishing at 30NL / 50NL (or whatever stakes) like me. If you are following these rules, and you go broke, that means you ended up having to move down to 2NL and can't beat 2NL and you're probably not a winning player after all - or are on some kind of massive tilt bender (you won't be able to win unless you get rid of that). There does come a point in time where you may have to go back to a more conservative BRM rule and study etc. or just accept you can't go higher. That would be if you reach a stake you just can't beat - and keep having to move down.

My new plan is to get a good job, try to get a side business going, and devote my other free time to poker using my new more aggressive BRM rules. I'll still consider myself a pro as long as I'm bringing in 1K a month - but as for going full time again - I'd need to have a side business going solidly - and/or a massive bankroll built up. I may leave Michigan and just grind ACR - depending on job opportunities.

Moved to Mich to play 900k hands of 50NL? I mean, nice graph, put that level of discipline into something greater, who knows. That, or sell your soul to a stable and take a shot... Was this your application?

Yeah, I know it seems crazy, but I was so sick of the corporate world I decided to do it. Turns out I was being a bit silly - the corporate world can be lame at times but it's not that bad, and pays better than 50NL (not to mention a lot easier money than even 50NL) ...

I've though about selling my soul to a stable or CFP program for X period of time / X number of hands ... but frankly have trouble understanding how I'd have enough to live off (in the US) while still giving them a cut. Probably would have to move outside of the US for this to be viable. I'd actually love to move to Thailand or Vietnam and play.

The other thing with stables / CFP programs ... as I'm already winning ... how do I make a fair deal with them? They need to provide something of great value (a lot of knowledge and/or bankroll). Not to mention the whole coaching / stable / CFP scene seems kind of scummy. That being said, I have found that some of the products/things they teach sell are legit despite looking kind of scammy.

Maybe if someone made an offer that made sense to me, I'd consider doing something like that. Poker is definitely my passion.

My plan atm is to get things stable outside of poker, then try to learn/study however I can and try to move up stakes more aggressively with a more aggressive BRM scheme.

If you’re looking for a higher win rate why not just play live? There are like 30-40 casinos in Michigan and they also have a lot of charity poker rooms. Winning at live poker is still easy.

Bankroll requirements. Confident I could beat 2/5 pretty much anywhere in the US based on what I’ve read about it online. Maybe 5/10 … but my bankroll is tiny right now.

1/2 is soft but the hourly isn’t any better than mass tabling 30NL/50NL and requires a larger roll.

Game selection is definitely easier and title probably won’t apply to low limit poker for a long time if ever. Past 2/5 title may already apply but not really sure.

There is also the smoke factor and being in a casino … but mainly bankroll is the issue

To play and live out of my roll live I’d definitely want 100 buy ins … but that could still be part of my more aggressive 10 buy in plan once I have nonpoker income.

online probably true, live not close to true.

In 2024, how do you think the average 5/10 (and above) game lines up difficulty wise compared to the regulated US sites and/or the non-regulated sites? Similar to 50NL / 100NL? A lot of the play on HCL that I have seen looks pretty bad - but I get the feeling those are not typical high stakes games.

I know live play styles are a lot different than online (especially 1/2) with huge opening sizes etc. From a theory standpoint - I understand how to adjust to these differences.

If you are better than everyone else, they are all fish to you

Beating regs is great, but recreationals are and always will be the lifeblood of the game.
For you to win money someone needs to lose that much money and more. Regs are not going to be willing to keep losing money without quitting, so you can't sustain an ecosystem with only pros beating each other.

I want to preface what I'm about to say, because I'm not sure if I'm correct. More of a question to you or other higher stakes players.

Based on the info I've read - it seems higher stakes players who are/were regulars at lower stakes become fish somewhere around 500NL+ and may break/even slightly losing after RB ... with the effect being greater the higher you go. Wouldn't that be enough to keep the higher stakes games running (until a certain $ pain point gets hit)? An edge on these players of just 2-3bb/100 plus RB/rewards is still a pretty good wage in first world countries at these limits. Obviously, you want to play mostly against huge whales, but (again from what I've read) the higher you go the less common that seems to be. When you say fish are necessary - are you talking about winning money directly from big fish (like 30/10 types or similar) being necessary - or do you mean by less skilled regs winning the money off fish at lower stakes - then you win the money off less skilled regs when they move up?

The games (30NL/50NL) I'm playing now are already pretty saturated with regs on a US only facing site, but I can tell when reviewing my database pretty much everyone including myself still has a lot of very exploitable tendencies even if I'm not actively exploiting them. That's why I feel like being able to beat these players is mandatory and certainly possible since often they occupy 4-5 seats on every table, usually minimum 3 seats unless it's early to mid day. I am already winning from a lot of the regs without exerting myself too much - but not all of them - and some of the amounts are low so could just be variance.

Live is a totally different game. If you're in a game with all regs you're wasting your time from the standpoint of making money. I don't care if you're the best player at the table -what do you think your win rate is in 8/9 handed 30 hand an hour poker against all competent players?

I mean yes if you could 8 table them at 100 hands an hour you could make some money but that's not the option.

if you can get some **** reg to play you HU for a while you can beat them pretty good.

The money in live comes from playing well in good games and not tilting. Always play your A game, don't tilt , be fun to play with and print money. Know when/where good games in your area are. When they're good in other places. Have bad players wanting to play with you.

Win rates can be extremely high in live games- but those huge win rates aren't coming from other good or even decent players. Sure some of you win rate will come from other regs if you're better than them but the bulk of big win rates comes from big losing players. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either ignorant or delusional.

Online is about small edges with mass volume. Live is about big edges over small volume.

Of course even in reg fest games a few people will randomly run better than everyone else, puff their chests out and think they're crushers from beating these tough games. I've seen it 100 times. magically those guys go back to running near ev and disappear off the face of the Earth a couple of years later because their real edge doesn't match their ego.

Oh yeah, totally get that my title doesn't really apply to live because the low volume, and most certainly not to anything 5/10 or under.

You DO play on MGM and WSOP to complement your Pokerstars grind right?

I don't and definitely should be playing on those sites if there is much volume at all available ... however I do believe eventually these sites will suffer from poor games too (especially on BetMGM when the MI/NJ merge happens). Maybe I'll be wrong but everyone thought the merger was going to be great on Stars ... but certainly it was not great (for cash games).

I should punch myself in the face for not playing on those sites while my bankroll was big enough to play 100NL+.

On a side note, started a serious job search today and redid my resume. After turning on LinkedIn premium, before I even finished my resume, already had someone ask me to interview for a 60K position … which seems very similar to my last position.

Hopefully that will go well.

How can a pool consist of one player breaking even after RB and another player winning? does the poker site like charity?

The player breaking even is surviving off of fish

It's not that you shouldn't beat regs, you should try to to the best of your ability. But if there are no recreationals then break even regs turn into losing regs and quit or move down, and that is a dead sentence for a given ecosystem.

I see what you are saying … they’re only breaking even due to the recs.

However I do think in extremely limited circumstances they could still break even. In my database, there is one reg in particular that comes to mind.

Although I believe overall this player is a weaker player than myself (they appear just over break even over a decent sample), I believe I have poorly adjusted to this players strategy (which seems to be playing a bit tighter than optimal - also I’ve noticed he is capable of some exploits). Due to lack of my adjustments and/or poor adjustments (or maybe my default tendencies) against him he is up a decent amount on me (around 10 buyins IIRC). In other words I seem to do a lot better against the pool compared to him - but he does well against me. Well enough he very well may be slightly losing if it was not for me. My sample could also just be when he is running bad vs pool … also guessing this is an even more unlikely scenario at higher stakes since edges should be smaller people presumably have much more polished games …

Move this to bbv, everyone knows table selecting is the most important skill in live and online.

Online graphs are so depressing idk why anyone posts them anymore. I miss the days of posters with names like RedlineUpMakeDikhard and kotkis posting sick graphs while taking party drugs and banging Thai hookers: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6...76/?highlight=

Remember OP, your hourly will always be higher playing live at mgmd, soaring eagle, etc. depending on where you live. Good luck with the job market, the grind, and may Gamblor have mercy on your soul.

I should have clarified online in the title. Long term - I still stand by that point if you need a 1st world salary, because online is drying up. Table selection while related is a different skill - because you can table select online for a table full of weak players - but if the whole pool is regulars of roughly the same caliber and barely any fish - you have to be able to beat them to make consistent profits. This seems to be where online is headed. At times the tables are already to that point for hours on end. Discussing that point or counterarguments was my original intention for this thread.

Other than that I’ve got to say you’re right and you should also table select by not playing on the reg infested sites, which admittedly is something I have been stubborn about (maybe subconsciously since I moved all the way to MI just to play on Stars) … I’m worried about the longevity of this tactic of moving sites though … at least online. If I’m thinking it, other regs must be too, and since online games are more accessible to more regs, especially without ring fencing, it doesn’t bode well for those games.

I’ve also thought about switching to MTTs which seem to have much softer fields … but my skill level is much lower at MTTs compared to cash - and although some things are the same / similar a lot of it is completely foreign.

Focus on live or go ask Chinese Mike for a beard deal. Mtts are just lottery tickets, cheers!

You know that regs at michigan are actually recs if they were let loose on the global sites?

what does the Michigan lobby look like at prime time? im curious to compare it to Ontario. You could always move to the next area that opens up a soft ringfence site lol

If we are talking about winning regs - I think it depends what stakes we are talking about.

For instance I’m pretty confident most MI 50NL regs (if any) would not win pre RB/LB at 50z on ACR … maybe even after factoring those in. But at regular 50NL tables - I think there will still be some winners including myself - albeit with a lower WR …

I also think the point some other posters made holds true here - the MI regs may lose but not much - like a few bb/100

You can actually download the MI lobby yourself and take a look - just get the download link for Ontario and change the beginning of the URL to pokerstarsmi.com

IIRC Ontario looks softer last time I looked. I have thought of doing what you’re saying, and could go to PA as it’s still ring fenced for now - but the PA pool already seems a bit tougher compared to how the MI pool originally was. Not sure it’s much better than the merged MI/NJ pool. I still think it is a bad tactic compared to just getting good and/or playing live.

Found the url …

https://pokerstars.com/client/download (ROW)

https://pokerstarsmi.com/client/download (MI/NJ)

Can just adjust the first part of the URL to download the client for any ringfenced pool